The Reds have not finished in first place since 2012, but were in first place in the National League Central after a hot start had them 20-11 by the end of April. They have lost 17 of 27 since then and their only series wins since have come against the struggling Astros, Phillies, and Mets. Now they face the struggling Royals! The Royals dropped 18 of 28 in the month of May, and now have the second-worst record in baseball.
Kansas City Royals (22-37) vs. Cincinnati Reds (30-28) at Great American Ball
Park, Cincinnati, OH
Royals: 3.75 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 4.75 runs allowed/game (22nd)
Reds: 4.41 runs scored/game (14th), 4.97 runs allowed/game (25th)
Only seven teams have hit more home runs than the Reds, and they have the seventh-highest walk rate, but the second-highest strikeout rate. They have hit 43 of their 72 home runs at home (60 percent), but are hitting just .224 at Great American Ballpark. Sal Stewart leads all National League rookies in home runs with 12, and is third in wRC+ among all rookies with at least 200 plate appearances. Nathaniel Lowe is hitting .324 with three home runs and four doubles in his last nine games. Spencer Steer is hitting .327/.411/.612 against lefties this year. JJ Bleday is hitting .333/.474/.778 at home.
Matt McLain is hitting just .167/.231/.310 over his last 26 games. The Reds are without All-Star Elly de la Cruz, who was placed on the Injured List with a hamstring strain.
The Royals will start Luinder Avila on Monday, although he is not ramped up to make a full start. Former second-overall pick Chase Burns is enjoying an All-Star season in his first full year in the big leagues. He has given up two runs or less in ten of his eleven starts this year. He has the tenth-highest strikeout rate among starers. He throws a 98 mph fastball, and opponents are hitting just .137 against his slider with a 53 percent whiff rate.
Andrew Abbott was an All-Star last year and earned Cy Young votes, finishing fifth in the National League with a 2.87 ERA. He allowed just four earned runs in 28 innings in May, for a 1.29 ERA, earning three wins. He has a 5.28 ERA in six starts at home this year with five home runs allowed.
Chris Paddack has a 5.40 ERA in three starts with the Reds since they picked him up following his release by the Marlins. He leads the National League with seven losses, and has yet to win a game. Paddack had a 3.33 ERA in 2019, but has a 5.23 ERA in 102 games since then. Salvador Perez is just 1-for-8 against him in their career matchups, but Vinnie Pasquantino has homered against him, going 2-for-7.
The Reds have a 4.98 ERA from relievers, fourth-worst in baseball. Closer Emilio Pagán is currently on the Injured List. Tony Santillan has two saves, but was lifted from a save opportunity yesterday when he struggled to get throught the inning. He has a 53 percent flyball rate, one of the highest in baseball. Today, the Reds called up pitcher Brandon Leibrandt, son of former Reds and Royals pitcher Charlie Leibrandt.
The Royals swept the Reds in their last visit to Cincinnati, outscoring the Reds 28-3 in 2024. They enter this series with a much different mojo, although the Reds matched their gloomy May performance. Both teams could badly use a series win, although at least the Reds are still in a pennant race. The Royals may be looking forward to 2027.
