The Miami Hurricanes (4-0) are on the road for the first time this season as they travel to north Florida to face the FSU Seminoles (3-1) on Saturday, October 4th at 7:30pm on ABC.
The ‘Canes have a 65% win prediction per ESPN, and open as a touchdown favorite over the rival ‘Noles. The Hurricanes have yet to deal with the implications of travel, road noise, and an adjusted schedule so I can see why the spread would be so low.
The Doppler
Miami is 14th in SP+ overall. The ‘Canes are 7th in offensive SP+, 27th
in defensive and 8th in kicking. FSU is 22nd in SP+ overall, 24th on offense, 28th on defense, and 76th in kicking.
On money downs, the ‘Canes offense is 21st in FBS on 3rd down at 48%, and 17th on 4th down at 75%. FSU is 10th in FBS on 3rd down converting 54% of their tries and 44th in the country on 4th down while converting 63% of their attempts.
On defense, Miami is 15th in the country while allowing only 27% of opponent 3rd downs to be converted. FSU is 47th in FBS while allowing a 36% conversion rate. What a difference a year has made under DC Corey Hetherman.
Miami’s turnover margin per game is +0.3 which is good for 46th in FBS. FSU’s TOMPG is -0.3 which puts them at 81st in FBS. The last doppler stat is penalty yards per game. FSU is 58th in FBS with 49.3 PYPG. Miami is 61st with 50 PYPG.
What about the kicking game?! FSU has kicked only four field goals all season and PK Jake Weinberg is 3-of-4. There’s nothing else that drastically stands out about FSU’s kicking game to the eye test. Miami has kicked five FG’s and the kicking duo has made all five.
The Film
The film we’ll use for review is the UVA 46 – FSU 38 game from the off week for Miami. It came down to double overtime on a Friday night but UVA pulled it off with a QB scramble into the end zone for Chandler Morris.
UVA was much more effective on money downs than FSU. UVA converted 9-of-15 on 3rd and 4th combined while FSU hit on 9-of-20 putting them below 50%. Both teams turned the ball over three times, but the most important turnover came in Double OT when Thomas Castellanos was intercepted to seal the Hoos victory.
FSU was penalized five times for 49 yards while the Cavaliers were flagged four times for 25 yards. Weinberg missed a FG while UVA PK Will Bettridge made his FG. Both kickers were 5-of-5 on PAT’s.
FSU’s Squirrel White had a 23-yard punt return worth keeping an eye on as Miami has had poor coverage units in the past.
FSU OFFENSE
Castellanos scored two times (one rushing) with two INT’s on 7.9 yards per pass attempt. The boom-or-bust QB also rushed for 78 yards including sack yardage.
FSU’s run game was solid, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (including sacks) and scoring three times on the ground. Gavin Sawchuck and Ousmane Kromah averaged 4.4 and 5.3 yards per carry, respectively.
Three ‘Noles skills averaged double-digit yards per catch numbers including a phenomenal game from Deuce Robinson who averaged 16.3 yards per catch with one TD catch.
Then there was Randy Pittman Jr. Pittman Jr., a tight end, threw one TD pass, rushed for another, and caught a third in a losing effort. All of those stories about Elija Lofton seem to have been about Mr. Pittman.
The rebuilt FSU offensive line allowed two sacks and five tackles for loss while Castellanos ran around to avoid a few other pressures.
Above– This is a clear picture of what RPO’s and a read option can do to a defense. The RPO bubble tag puts three defenders to the field all locked up. The read key forces the DE to be slow to play his squeeze to the run. This is an explosive 1st down for FSU.
Above– A heavy dose of duo / combo blocking for FSU on the night. Can a run concept get any more open?
Above– Here’s where being 5-10 hurts Castellanos and he really needs to master arm angles to throw around this edge. The Miami DL needs to get their hands up against Castellanos and bat down balls.
Above– When the defense only has 2 guys above the hard deck (7-yards off the LOS) and neither are hash-over to the outside WR, you dial up a fade. The safety can’t get over the top to help and even if he did, FSU throws a back shoulder fade to keep the S out of the play.
Above– Window dressing galore from Malzahn inside the +5. Motion, pullers, QB as a pitch read. The defense will have to 1- communicate and 2- play their assignments.
Above– FSU emptied a good chunk of the playbook in a losing effort. Pittman Jr. played the role we were told Elija Lofton would play. Pittman ran this TD in on a wildcat-type split zone concept.
Above– Who do you follow? At higher levels it’s the opposite back that many LB’ers track, not the pulling guards. Malzahn loves the wing-t based misdirection and angles.
Above– Pittman is now throwing a TD from the Wildcat type of look.
Above– Just for the ‘holy crap’ sake… Pittman catches the potential game tying TD (which after the PAT did tie the game) to send it to OT.
FSU DEFENSE
UVA QB Chandler Morris scored five times, including the go-ahead TD in overtime. Morris did throw three picks while averaging only 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
The Hoos pounded J’Mari Taylor at FSU for 99 yards on 27 carries and one TD, while Xavier Brown averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Brown also caught a TD pass.
UVA had four skills hit the double-digit yards per catch mark vs. FSU. Nine different Cavaliers caught a pass while Trell Harris led the way with 15 yards per catch.
The UVA O-Line allowed two sacks and four TFL’s on the afternoon. Edwin Joseph had one TFL and one PBU while Earl Little Jr. picked up 13 tackles from his safety position.
Above– Routes like Stick look open against FSU and Miami should dial that one up out of their Air Raid playbook. This could be the chance to get Lofton involved.
Above- Turn back play-action is something you have to be really damn quick with your eyes to run. If Miami does go turn-back PAP with Carson Beck, they need to secure their blocks better than UVA does.
Above– As you can see the FSU defender runs so free he almost stops before destroying Morris because of practice reps blowing plays dead. No receiver is in their route by the time Morris turns. So the design is bad as well as the execution.
Above– The FSU pass rush wasn’t just present against play-action, they also got interior pressure on standard drop backs. Morris is much more mobile than Beck, but the Miami OL is the best in the country.
Above– Miami has hardly turned the ball over but they aren’t creating turnovers either. FSU breaks this deep shot up and it turns into a pick. Miami has to be aware that FSU will ball hunt vs. dangerous throws.
Above- Mark Fletcher and Marty Brown should feast on Saturday night. FSU’s tackling in space is poor- this UVA player breaks this vice tackle for an explosive play.
Above– FSU wasn’t better at tackling in the box, either. The safety rotates down to fill the alley and drops to his knees to make this play. The UVA RB breaks the tackle for a TD. Again, Fletcher and Brown should feast on FSU’s defense.
Above– Brown has proven himself a reliable target out of the backfield and Miami runs the mesh concept in the rectangle. If the ‘Canes can run mesh with the wheel tagged on the RB, Brown could come open for a TD like UVA was able to pull off vs. FSU.
The Forecast
Coming off of a 2-10 2024 season and a house cleaning of coordinators and assistants, I had FSU as an “avoid self-implosion” game for the Canyonero Keys to Victory. After a 3-1 start including a win over Alabama and this 2OT loss to UVA, I have a different perspective on the ‘Noles.
The Canyonero Keys to Victory for beating FSU are:
1- Come out on fire. One of the things I’ve loved about Shannon Dawson the past two seasons are that the offense has been really good on the opening drive. The Hurricanes scored a touchdown on their opening drives against Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, and Florida. They also struck first against ND, however not on the opening drive. Being up 7-0 can relax a QB into making the right throws, not forcing throws.
2- Contain Castellanos. While USF’s Byrum Brown is a power runner, and ND’s CJ Carr and UF’s DJ Lagway can run if they need to, Castellanos is a dynamic running threat that can hide behind pulling guards and turn sure fire sacks into 1st downs. This is a true Gus Malzahn type of QB, and Mike Norvell likes his QB’s to be part of the run game as well. Miami’s defensive ends might be the best duo in CFB and will have to earn their NIL against FSU. Oh, and don’t get lost in coverage when the scramble drill hits.
3- Win the kicking game. Regardless of FSU’s loss to UVA or not, this will be a close game. It’s a primetime game, on Saturday night (not a Friday), and in Tallahassee. These type of games always come down to kicks. FSU missed one vs. UVA, Wake Forest missed one vs. Georgia Tech, GT nailed a big one against WF and Clemson, and of course Carter Davis drilled a big one against Notre Dame in Week One. Hit an explosive return, block a punt, or shank a FG and this game turns upside down.
Prediction: Miami by 7. Road game, night game, tough place to play, and FSU will have a chip on their shoulder. Expect Mike Norvell to pull out all of the tricks in this one.
