Long time frenemy of the blog, Terry Lambert, joined me for yet another year to talk about the Third Saturday in October. As far as Vols fans go, he’s a reasonable enough guy. Even if he likes Orange.
1. The top scoring offense in all of college football, and one of the worst defenses…. From the outside, it seems extreme. As an inside fan, give me a quick synopsis of why Tennessee’s offense may not be that good, and why their defense may not be that bad. (or maybe the perceptions are accurate!)
The Tennessee offense is very good. Aguilar has infused the offense with an aggressive, vertical attack and his athleticism gives you even more to worry about. Chris Brazzell might be the best receiver in the country and several other weapons have surprisingly emerged. Keep in mind too that Tennessee has played in three blowouts with Aguilar and the starters sitting out for two entire halves.
In every game though there’s seemingly a lull. Against Georgia they basically took the second and third quarter off. Against Mississippi State they scored just three points in the third and let the Bulldogs come roaring back to take the lead. Last weekend against Arkansas it was Heupel sitting on the ball and allowing things to get uncomfortable late after building a 17 point lead.
So I’d say, yes they’re great, but they score in bunches and tend to go ice cold for at least one stretch in the game.
Defensively, they’re just flat out bad right now. It’s been a combination of injuries and big roster turnover on the defensive line and safety. It’s wild to see too considering how stout this group was last season. Tennessee was missing four big contributors against Georgia and they’ll more than likely be down two starting cornerbacks once again on Saturday.
Here’s what they can do though — turn you over. They’re tied with Alabama at 11 each on the year, and Tennessee ended up needing those key turnovers to beat both Mississippi State and Arkansas.
So there’s a level left to be unlocked for this group as they get healthy, but based on the tone we’ve heard around the program, I’m not super optimistic that happens.
2. Has Joey Aguilar really made that much of a difference, or are there other things going more right for Tennessee’s offense this year that’s making Aguilar look good?
Yes, there’s zero question. Tennessee struggled with Nico Iamaleava and Joe Milton during the last two seasons because they just flat out couldn’t connect on a deep ball. Ironically, the much less physically talented Aguilar is hitting them consistently. He’s just giving his guys a chance to win down the field and his receivers have made things happen.
Aguilar has a shocking grasp on the offense considering he only arrived in May. The knock on him was his turnovers, but he really has taken care of the ball. Three of his five of his picks have been dumb luck with receivers falling down or a ball being batted straight into the air.
The other part of the offense that’s changed is the emergence of a legit No. 1 receiver and slot. Chris Brazzell’s 6-5 frame just lets him play basketball on grass. He absolutely abused Georgia in man coverage. And there there’s Braylon Staley in the slot, who just keeps making tough grabs and finding ways to get open. The other piece of the puzzle, Mike Matthews, continues to emerge as well. It’s a razor thin group, but a productive one so far.
It’s a much, much different looking attack than what you saw last year.
3. Are there any freshmen who are looking like future superstar players?
Right tackle David Sanders, who was a top five player in last year’s class, is just now getting on the field after starting with a shoulder issue. He’s yet to start a game, and I’m not sure this staff wants to do that on the road, but it’s coming soon. He’s easily Tennessee’s best athlete up front.
Three-star cornerback Ty Redmond has been up and down, but the flashes are there. He’s been thrown into the fire as a starter from day one with injuries to Tennessee’s top two cornerbacks. Georgia got the better of him, but he got his hands on the ball a few times against Syracuse in the opener.
Freshman linebacker Jadon Perlotte has just recently entered the rotation and brings a ton of athleticism to the room. We haven’t seen much here, but he’s a really nice looking sub package guy going forward.
Honestly, Josh Heupel really doesn’t play a ton of freshmen. He’s been forced into this year due to injuries and portal exits though.
4. Have the Vols met, succeeded, or underperformed your expectations prior to the season starting… And how will the rest of the season have to go for you to consider it a success?
Met and slightly exceeded.
Nobody really knew what Tennessee would be without Nico, but ironically it’s been a clear upgrade. The passing game is all the way back and the offense is back to what it should be. But then the defense, which was so good last year, has just fallen apart.
Still, Tennessee is a field goal away from beating Georgia and being 6-0. Everyone would have been thrilled with 9-3 at the start of the season, but now 10-2 is very much on the table which would very likely mean another CFP appearance. That’s the obvious goal.
I think Heupel needs to win in either Tuscaloosa or Gainesville to take another step forward. Both games are vital to Tennessee’s playoff chances, but the Vols haven’t won at either place since 2003. His road woes are certainly a thing and he’ll have to take a step towards burying that to find ten wins.
5. What matchup against Alabama are you most excited about, and which one has you the most nervous?
Ty Redmond vs. Ryan Williams/Germie Bernard
The freshman has been up and down as I noted above, but this will be his biggest spot yet. Alabama can obviously throw it with elite talent on the outside and this would be his toughest test year. There was some optimism that Tennessee could get star cornerback Jermod McCoy back for this one, who single-handed changed last year’s outcome, but I’d be shocked if he sees the field. Keep in mind that Tennessee’s CB2 Rickey Gibson is also out for the year.
Tennessee has found something in Colton Hood, who has been operating as Tennessee’s top cornerback all season long. He’s being talked about as a first round pick now, but this defense has proven to be leaky everywhere else.
Keep an eye on Tennessee’s zone coverage. They’d been destroyed all season long, particularly on third down. Those key spots will determine this game.
6. For your money, who’s the best team in the SEC? It can’t actually be Ole Miss, can it?
I actually think it’s Alabama, which is wild to think about where things seemed to be five weeks ago. I think DeBoer has a quarterback that fits him much better than last year and elite talent all around him only makes him that much more dangerous. His hands were clearly tied with Jalen Milroe last season.
Georgia seems to be a tick off this year, LSU isn’t it. I’m just not a believer in Ole Miss or Texas A&M whatsoever. Texas and Oklahoma have both been exposed a bit.
I think Alabama goes to Atlanta and the race for second is going to be WILD. I have a feeling Tennessee is going to regret that missed field goal against Georgia even more in late November.
7. Since we must, what’s your game prediction?
Alabama 38, Tennessee 30
Tennessee keeps the tradition going of starting fast in Tuscaloosa and falling apart in the 4th. Ty Simpson will connect on too many third down conversions to keep the Tennessee offense off the field.
