After taking just one game against the Atlanta Braves (boy that missed opportunity Friday hurts) the Boston Red Sox head to Kansas City at 19-27. The Royals, winning a game to snap a six-game losing streak, enter at 20-27. Most would agree the Royals are struggling. So whatever the Red Sox are doing…yikes.
The Royals entered the season in the large group of teams hoping to be in the hunt for a Wild Card. The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians were the division favorites, the White Sox and Twins
were taking steps back, but the Royals could dream. As it would happen, Bobby Witt Jr. wouldn’t homer until April 26 (though he’s done it six more times since!), Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino couldn’t recapture the Team Italy magic. The ageless catcher Salvador Perez would start slow. And the pitching would be a bit of a mess. Wouldn’t the Sox know it though, the strong part of the rotation is ready and waiting to take on the league’s weakest offense.
Sonny Gray kicks things off on Monday. Gray, likely second after Chapman in trade interest as the deadline approaches, is coming off a fine start. His second outing since an IL stint, the veteran tossed six one-run innings while striking out six, a season high. The Red Sox have won five of his seven starts this year. In his third year with the Royals, Seth Lugo has settled in for them as a contact guy with fewer Ks (20.8%) and a higher walk rate (8.6%) than his reliever days. But if they can get 200 innings out of him like in 2024 the Royals won’t complain. He’s been hit hard twice – by the Angels and White Sox – in his last 5 starts yielding 7 and 5 runs, respectively. He also had a four-inning, four-run outing against the Guardians. Over his first five starts, Lugo had a 1.15 ERA / 2.27 FIP and over the next four it’s a 7.59 ERA / 3.28 FIP. So maybe he’s working through a little something right now.
2026 ace, non-Tolle division, Ranger Suárez takes the second game of the series. He was absolutely cruising last time out against the Phillies until a disaster inning got him off track. But he didn’t allow any runs and struck out 8 over 5.1 in his first start since leaving after four innings against the Astros on May 3rd. Southpaw Kris Bubic has made 9 starts this season. Seven have been at least 5.0 innings. And he’s given up more than 3 runs just three times. Those were against the Detroit Tigers on April 21 and the Chicago White Sox last time out. He’s really struggles with walks this year. After three years of single percentage walks his BB% has ballooned to 12.6% against a 24.6% strikeout rate, which is comparable to 2025’s 24.4% mark.
Connelly Early finishes things up on Wednesday. The Red Sox most consistent starter, Early has allowed 3 runs or fewer in seven of his nine starts. He held the Braves offense to two runs on two hits in game the Red Sox would lose. Old friend Michael Wacha finishes the series for the Royals. He’s reach the seventh innings four times in nine tries this year, really giving the Royals innings. Pitching with reverse splits, righties have hit .231/.294/.462 against Wacha while southpaws are struggling: .169/.254/.274. Although as perspective, Caleb Durbin is slashing .165/.247/.245, so Wacha can’t turn lefties into the worst hitter in baseball.
Bobby Witt Jr has 7 home runs and is hitting .309/.383/.503 after a slow start.
The Pasquatch is at just .201/.286/.341 while his Italian-American copatriot Jac Caglianone is at .246/.318/.425 with 5 dingers.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Monday, May 18: Sonny Gray (3.18 ERA / 4.18 FIP) vs. Seth Lugo (3.76 ERA / 2.68 FIP)
Tuesday, May 19: Ranger Suárez (2.44 ERA / 2.83 FIP) vs. Kris Bubic (4.11 ERA / 3.71 FIP)
Wednesday, May 20: Connelly Early (3.21 ERA / 4.56 FIP), vs. Michael Wacha (2.83 ERA / 4.14 FIP)
When/Where to Watch
Monday, May 18: 7:40 PM ET on NESN
Tuesday, May 19: 7:40 PM on NESN
Wednesday, May 20: 7:40 PM ET on NESN
