We saw the first major starting pitching trade of the offseason this afternoon when the St. Louis Cardinals sent veteran Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for prospects Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts. There
are a lot of starters who could be on the block this offseason, including Nationals ace MacKenzie Gore, so this move has the potential to create a domino effect.
I want to take a look at what this move means for the Nats because there are a couple things to explore here. The first one is the simplest. This move likely takes the Red Sox out of the Gore sweepstakes. While Gray is not the surefire number two starter Red Sox fans have been clamoring for, I am not sure Gore is that either. If the Red Sox are going to make another pitching move, it would likely be for a proven number two starter like Joe Ryan.
It would be foolish to totally rule out the Red Sox pulling the trigger, but this move makes it much less likely. Gore and Gray were actually pretty similar pitchers in 2025. Both are high strikeout guys who have trouble limiting hard contact. They also had much better underlying numbers than their ERA’s which were in the 4’s.
However, Gore is going to be more valuable on the trade market for three big reasons. The first one is that he is a lot younger than Sonny Gray. Gore will be going into his age 27 season while Gray will be entering his age 36 campaign. Obviously that means Gore has much more untapped potential and is not in any risk of age related regression.
The second big reason is money. MacKenzie Gore is way cheaper than Sonny Gray. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ estimate, Gore is set to make $4.7 million in arbitration this year. Even if that number is not exactly what he will make, it is in that ballpark.
Meanwhile, Sonny Gray is going to cost the Red Sox a pretty penny financially. In the trade process, Gray re-worked his contract and the Cardinals ate some cash to make things easier financially. However, Gray still won’t be cheap. There are a lot of moving pieces, but practically, the Red Sox are paying Sonny Gray $21 million for one year.
That is a lot of money and also brings us to our final point of difference which is team control. While the Red Sox technically have a mutual option for 2026, they are unlikely to pick up the option which would pay Gray $30 million for his age 37 season. So in reality, this is a one year deal.
MacKenzie Gore has another year of cheap team control in 2027 which makes him even more valuable. The dark cloud which is the upcoming CBA negotiations may make some teams wonder about the 2027 season, but the Nationals need to get a return that assumes games will be played that season. While MacKenzie Gore and Sonny Gray are about equal in terms of impact, Gore has some things going for him that make him more valuable in a trade.
Despite all of that, the Cardinals still got a nice return for Gray. They got two solid young pitchers. While Richard Fitts was the second piece, he is still an interesting arm. He is only 25 years old and has some MLB experience. The numbers do not jump off the page, but his stuff is good and has some developmental runway.
Fitts is a high probability back of the rotation starter who has a chance to be a mid rotation guy if everything goes right. That is not bad for a second piece. If the Nats can get an arm like this as a secondary piece in a Gore trade I would be quite happy.
The biggest piece of the trade is left handed pitcher Brandon Clarke. He is listed as the Red Sox number five prospect on MLB Pipeline, but there are a lot of varying opinions around the southpaw. He had a ton of helium early in the season, but injuries and strike throwing concerns slowed down his hype train.
However, he is a left handed pitcher who can touch 100 and has an absolutely wicked slider that some scouts put an 80 grade on. That two pitch combination can absolutely carve up hitters when he is on his game. An optimist would say that Clarke has the raw stuff to be a high end starter one day.
However, the bear case is that he is a reliever. There are a lot of signs pointing in that direction. He walked over 6 batters per 9 last year and he only threw 38 innings. Clarke also has a lengthy injury history. There is also not much beyond the fastball and slider. In fact, he is most likely to be a reliever, but he could be a dominant one.
This is not a bad package for an expensive 36 year old on a one year deal who is coming off a season where his ERA was over 4. With that in mind, Gore is likely to fetch a top 70 prospect as a headliner as well as multiple interesting secondary pieces.
A package from the Cubs that consists of Jaxon Wiggins, Jonathan Long and James Triantos could be a deal that makes sense for both sides. Wiggins is that top 75 prospect to headline the package. Long is an MLB ready masher that can play first base and Triantos is a contact heavy guy who can be a decent big leaguer.
That is just a suggestion, but after the Gray trade, it is not an overly rich package. The offseason seems to finally be heating up lately. Paul Toboni has not done a whole lot yet, but I am confident that he is ready to strike and make some fun moves soon.
