The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (20-14-1) vs. Buffalo Sabres (16-14-4)
The Time: 7:00pm ET
The Broadcast: MSGSN, Devils Radio Network
Last Devils Game
On Friday night, New Jersey wrapped up their quick two-game road trip with
a 2-1 win in Utah over the Mammoth . The embattled Jacob Markstrom authored perhaps his best performance of the season, stopping 32 of 33 shots, while Connor Brown and Stefan Noesen scored the goals.
Last Sabres Game
Buffalo was in action last night, claiming a 3-2 shootout victory over the New York Islanders. Buffalo was leading 2-1 with less than a minute to play, but allowed a game-tying goal to help New York salvage a point, much to the chagrin of Devils fans everywhere.
Last Devils-Sabres Game
The first matchup of the season between these teams took place on Black Friday, and it was one of the most lopsided decisions of the year with New Jersey winning 5-0 in Buffalo. The game was closer than that final score would indicate, as the Sabres outshot the Devils 42-23. Jake Allen was dazzling that night, pitching a 42-save shutout, while Arseny Gritsyuk registered his first multi-goal game of his career.
Reinforcements On The Way?
As has been noted a million times by now, the Devils have endured quite a few injuries this season. They did recently get a very big piece back as Brett Pesce returned to the lineup on Wednesday, but the injury list is still very long. And that’s what makes this quote from Sheldon Keefe after Friday’s win so notable:
As if that weren’t enough, the New Jersey Devils’ official Twitter account quote-tweeted this with an eyes emoji. This implies to me that the Devils are expecting some big names back, and sure enough, yesterday we got a little clarity on what Keefe was referencing:
Meier has missed some time recently to attend to a personal matter with his family. We still don’t know exactly what it was, but considering it’s a private matter, that’s fine with me. I’m very happy to see that Meier has taken care of whatever he needed to take care of, here’s hoping him and his family are doing alright. And as far as what it means for the on-ice product, it’s obviously huge. Meier has been having a bit of an up and down campaign, but it’s mostly been up. I would argue this has been his best season as a Devil, and with the team struggling as much as it has been to produce offense, it’ll be so nice to welcome him back to the lineup.
But remember, Keefe said he expects “bodies” back. Plural. And again, the Devils’ Twitter account treating this like some juicy news implies to me that the returning players are big names. So aside from Meier, could this mean Jack Hughes? It’s possible, as his original timeline wouldn’t be that far off from today. Not to mention there’s been smoke around him returning soon. Needless to say, getting Meier AND Hughes back on the same day would be game-changing. I just hope that if it is Hughes, they aren’t rushing him back. There are only two games until the Christmas break after all, so while every game without Hughes is a frustrating one, I’d be fine with giving him just a little bit more time if he needs it.
But a Hughes return is just speculation right now. We’ll have to wait and see who else, if anybody, gets back on the ice for New Jersey prior to tonight’s game.
Figure It Out
The Devils gave up another power play goal on Friday, going 2-for-3 overall on the kill. Their own power play went 1-for-5, which I suppose isn’t bad, but it’s not good either. This was just a continuation of a huge issue that has plagued this team for a while now.
Special teams are absolutely destroying the Devils. In the month of December, New Jersey’s power play is converting at a dismal 14.2% clip, while their penalty kill is at a shocking 53.8% success rate. We’ve talked about a lot of issues surrounding the Devils lately, but I don’t think we’re talking enough about how much the special teams failures have torpedoed this team. Those rates above are completely unacceptable, and while it makes sense that results would drop off when key players like Jack Hughes and Brett Pesce get injured, it should not be even close to this bad.
I will be an optimist for a second and say that these rates are clearly unsustainable. There is no universe in which the Devils only kill of half of their penalties the rest of the season. Likewise, the power play will not be this anemic for long. The results should get better if only through sheer dumb luck, and once the team gets closer to something resembling fully healthy, we should hopefully see elite special teams units (or close to it) like we did last season.
All that being said, the special teams failures need to stop. Now. Not when Hughes gets back. Not when Johnny Kovacevic gets back. Now. Their status as a playoff (and hopefully championship) contender depends on it.
About Time
For the first time since a modest three-game winning streak that wrapped around Thanksgiving (and that, fittingly, included the Sabres as the last win of that streak), the Devils have won multiple games in a row. Yes, New Jersey went almost an entire month without clearing the hilariously low bar of winning a game and then winning the next game. But credit where it’s due: the Devils went out to Vegas and beat a challenging (if slightly overrated) Golden Knights squad, then topped a scrappy and talented Mammoth side.
Now they return to the east coast and battle a team far less imposing in the Sabres. Buffalo might not be a complete pushover (we’ll get to that momentarily), but I don’t think anyone would deny that Vegas is a better team than Buffalo. Most people would probably say Utah is a superior group as well. All of that to say, New Jersey should absolutely go out and beat Buffalo today. With the team back home, Buffalo having played last night (and going all the way to a shootout), and the Devils finding ways to win against tough squads like Vegas and Utah, this feels like a game New Jersey should get two points out of. Throw in the return of Meier and possibly more reinforcements, and this is a game that I will be very disappointed with anything less than a win.
Good News/Bad News For Buffalo
With their shootout victory last night, the Sabres have now won five straight games. They are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference, and while they’re still on the outside looking in as far as the playoff picture goes, just one more good week could vault them into the top eight in the conference. For as woebegone as the organization is, New Jersey cannot take Buffalo lightly, or the Sabres will make it six in a row.
That’s the good news. The bad news? Well, frankly the Sabres have been lucky to win one of their last five games, let alone all of them. According to Natural Stat Trick, since their winning streak began on December 9th, Buffalo has been one of the worst play-driving teams in the NHL (all numbers 5-on-5):
Corsi For%: 42.53
Scoring Chances For%: 42.78
High Danger Corsi For%: 41.67
Expected Goals For%: 42.51
Only one time over their five-game bender have they finished with an xGF% north of breakeven: December 14th at Seattle. And even that was only barely above that mark at 50.68%. The Sabres have been finding ways to win, mostly through their own goaltending getting hot or the other team’s goaltending imploding, but I think it’s fair to say they’ve been winning in spite of their process, not because of it.
This does not mean that New Jersey can take Buffalo lightly. But it does mean that while the Sabres come in raging hot, they are more vulnerable than they currently appear.
Same Old, Same Old
So who should the Devils be watching out for this evening? The usual suspects. Tage Thompson leads the team in goals (18) and points (31). Alex Tuch is next with 29 points, and Rasmus Dahlin continues to be a machine with 27 points of his own. Both Thompson and Dahlin scored goals yesterday, so watch out for them continuing their hot streaks.
Meanwhile in net, Alex Lyon got the call last night, making 32 saves on 34 shots and standing tall in the shootout. So expect to see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen between the pipes this evening. UPL has struggled this season, going 9-4-5 with an .884 save percentage. If the Devils get their fair share of shots on net in this game, they should hit paydirt with some regularity assuming Luukonen’s season-long form holds.
Potential Lineup
Expect much the same this evening.
Your Take
What do you make of tonight’s game? How happy are you to see Timo Meier back? Do you actually anticipate anyone else returning, or do you think that’s just a bit of a smokescreen from Keefe? What do you expect out of Buffalo? As always, thanks for reading!
