There’s an old adage that when the Vegas books speak loudly and clearly, people should pay attention. If that’s not a real saying, it should be. Abrupt and significant movements in published betting odds or lines usually mean something, and the odds for the fifth pick in the NFL draft – which is now only six days away – have had that kind of shift. As of Thursday night, two Ohio State defenders – LB Sonny Styles and S Caleb Downs – were tied (at +250) at the top of the odds board.
On Tuesday, my most
recent Pick 5 Odds Tracker column appeared here on the site. Here’s what the FanDuel odds for Pick 5 looked like at the time:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +175
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +440
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +600
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +600
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +800
LSU CB Mansoor Delane +2000
Utah OT Spencer Fano +2000
As noted above, on Thursday night, April 16, the odds for Downs had shot up, to where he was a co-favorite for the pick. But this market is fluid, and it doesn’t take much to move the numbers. Here’s what the odds show at noon on the morning of Friday, April 17:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +190
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +250
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +420
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +650
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +1400
ASU WR Jordyn Tyson +1900
Utah OT Spencer Fano +2200
LSU CB Mansoor Delane +2700
Here are some quick takeaways from the latest odds:
First and foremost, the rise of Downs is noteworthy. He jumped from 6:1 to 2 ½:1 in just two days. From the beginning of this process, Big Blue has been seen as a logical landing spot for the Ohio State safety. New Head Coach John Harbaugh would love to get the Giants a version of Ravens’ defensive leader Kyle Hamilton, who Baltimore selected with the 14th pick of the 2022 draft. Downs might not have the physical profile of the Ravens’ standout, but he’s known for his football smarts and is probably the best safety prospect to come along since Hamilton.
Styles is still a slight favorite at a little better than 2:1, but clearly a lot of money has come in on Downs, and that’s consistent with a slight vibe shift that some Giants’ insiders have sensed.
Second, the odds and the mock drafts are still mostly in sync. In Ed Valentine’s latest mock draft tracker, published early this morning, Styles is still the top choice at Pick 5, but the sentiment is down slightly, as 24 of 57 of last week’s mocks (43.6%) had Styes as the pick, down from just over 50% the week before. Downs was the selection in nine mocks (16.3%). That’s in the 6:1 range. It will be interesting to see if the latest changes in odds are reflected in the final mocks that the “experts” share next week.
Third, the odds for Mauigoa haven’t moved much, while the odds for Delane slipped. And Tyson’s odds have jumped considerably, probably on the news that the Giants are attending his workout today at ASU. Tyson, whose durability is a bit of a question mark, has been battling a hamstring injury, so teams are anxious to see him run. He did impress at the combine with 26 reps on the bench press, second all-time at the receiver position.
One other change in the odds that’s worth noting is that the favorite at Pick 2 (Jets) has flipped again — back from Texas Tech Edge David Bailey to Ohio State Edge/Hybrid LB Arvell Reese. While the Giants don’t figure to be in the market for a pass rusher with their first round pick, the Jets’ selection will have an impact on which players make it to the Giants at No. 5. The odds as they’re posted now seem to favor the idea that two if not all three of Styles, Downs, and Mauigoa will be available when the Giants are on the clock.
The long wait is almost over, but the odds are likely to keep moving in these last days leading up the start of the first round on Thursday.
