We’ve been doing this for several years now. We reviewed some of the top free agents, as rated by Keith Law in The Athletic and Ben Clemens at FanGraphs, using the contracts FanGraphs suggests they will
receive, and asked if we should sign them.
Number 3 on Ben Clemens’ list and number 9 on Keith Law’s list is Dylan Cease. Cease is a right-handed starting pitcher who turns 30 at the end of December. In 2015 he was 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA for the Padres. Batters hit .239/.318/.399 with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 1.1 bWAR.
2024 was much better, 14-11, 3.47 with a 4.1 bWAR. He was amazing in 2022, finishing second in Cy Young voting.
Keith Law said:
His biggest selling point in free agency is his durability, as he’s made 32 or 33 starts every year for five straight years, and I believe he hasn’t missed a turn in the rotation since his promotion to the majors in July 2019. He’s had one of the worst strand rates among MLB starters in the last three years, as he’s been worse from the stretch over the course of his career, and has shown a small but consistent platoon split. He’s a mid-rotation starter who has the raw materials to put together another 5+ WAR season, but his baseline level is more around 2-3 wins, with the added value of the likelihood that he gives his team close to 200 innings.
Ben:
The downside case with Cease is that his two-pitch approach won’t work if he loses a bit of oomph on his fastball or a bit of bite on his slider as he ages. The upside case is that he hasn’t done any of the things that older pitchers usually do to extend their effectiveness yet; he could add a cutter, or learn a new changeup grip (or two), or start throwing more sinkers, or any number of pitch-mix hacks. I think at least a few teams will look at the combination of durability and results, sprinkle in a little optimism about their in-house pitching development, and give Cease more than any other pitcher this winter. I’ve estimated five years because while I think that teams will continue to prefer shorter deals for pitching, the top few names on the market generally get a year more than would be strictly comfortable for the signing team. Four would feel comfy; thus, I think he’ll get five.
Ben figured Cease would get a five-year contract worth $31 million, totalling $155 million. I don’t know, he’s durable, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to keep up his current level of pitching. I think that he’ll likely lose a bit on his fastball in the next couple of years. But then, his four-seam fastball averaged 97.1 mph this year, so he is throwing very hard.
Anyway, let’s have the poll:
