BOTH TEAMS WILL BE COMING OFF OF A BYE WEEK IN PREPARATION FOR AN IMPORTANT MATCHUP.
The Aztecs are slight favorites in this mid-season game. The Aztecs are coming off of a 44-10 win against Nevada two weeks ago, while Fresno State dropped their last game, 49-21 to Colorado State.
Both teams are looking to become bowl eligible with a victory.
GAME INFO:
Location:
Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, CaliforniaDate/Time: Saturday, October 25, 12:30 (Pacific Time)
Television: FS1
Streaming:
Radio: San Diego
Sports 760Betting Line: The Aztecs are a slight 3.5 favorite heading into their contest against the Bulldogs. The Over/Under is 48.5, which reflects a score indication of 26-23 in favor of the Aztecs. The Bulldogs have averaged 21 points in each of their last three games while the Aztecs have been on a hot streak, scoring 45 and 44 points in their last two games. The ESPN analytics are predicting a 60.9% chance of an Aztec victory Saturday afternoon. The Aztecs stand at 5-1 on the season, 2-0 in Mountain West play. Fresno State is 5-2 and 2-1 in conference play. The teams have played 62 previous times with the Aztecs holding a slight 31-27-43 margin. The teams first played in 1923. In 2011, alumni from both schools presented an Old Oil Can as the trophy for the winner. The history of this lies in the early days of the automobile. People driving down Hwy. 99 from Fresno to San Diego would have to carry cans for extra oil and gas to avoid being stranded. The trip involved crossing the Grapevine, a geographic divider between Northern and Southern California. During an expansion phase at San Diego State, an old oil can was dug up, and thus, the idea was formed. The last meeting was in 2023, an Aztec victory, 33-18. The series has seen close fought games with each tean able to string together multiple victories. The last time the Aztecs played in Fresno, was in October of 2022. The result was a thrilling 32-28 victory for the Bulldogs. The 62 games is the most of any other opponent. San Jose State is second having played the Spartans 47 times. The Aztecs and Bulldogs are departing the Mountain West after this season, and their rivalry will continue as conference opponents.
THE OPPOSITION: Fresno State Bulldogs
First year head coach Matt Entz brings a tradition of winning. He had been at FCS power North Dakota State for five seasons, leading them to two national championships. He was tasked with rebuilding a roster that had seen a significant amount of turnover, including starting running back Malik Sherrod, who left for Boise State and Mikey Keene who transferred to Michigan where he has yet to see any playing time. Coach Entz brings an overall 60-11 record with him, and with that, a tradition of winning. The Bulldogs are familiar with that winning tradition, although it’s been a struggle the last few years. The first chore was to shore up the quarterback position. This was done with the acquisition of Rice transfer E.J. Warner. He happens to be the son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, so the quarterback bug runs through the genes of Warner. He has proven to be effective for the Bulldogs, throwing for 1,486 yards on 139/202 passing for ten scores, but nine interceptions. Bryson Donelson leads the ground game with 405 yards on 85 attempts. Rayshon Luke, an Arizona transfer, is right behind him with 384 yards on 59 carries. Both have combined for 8 touchdowns. Warner has yet to establish a clear go to receiver, but Josiah Freeman, a 6’3” senior currently leads the way with 300 yards and four scores. Tight End Richie anderson III is right behind him with 220 yards and two scores. Touted Louisville transfer Jahlil McClain has not seen playing time as a wide out. The offensive line had two starters returning, Jacob Spomer and Toreon Penright, who anchor the big uglies. How will the Bulldogs decide to attack the Aztec defense? The Aztecs have shown the ability to play gap integrity while pressuring the quarterback. With the resurgent offense, the Bulldogs will need to find a way to sustain drives. They showed some success against Colorado State. They have been hit by the turnover bug with three interceptions against the Rams and a fumble that was returned for a score. Obviously the turnover bug needs to be squashed to give Fresno State a chance at being close.
On defense, the Bulldogs are led by lineman Finn Claypool who has 3.5 sacks and linebacker Jadon Pearson with 58 total tackles. Highly touted linemen Korey Foreman and Jahzon Jacks have been slow to hit the stat sheets. The Dogs were light at linebacker and Pearson has stepped into the leadership role. Arizona State transfer K’vion Thunderbird is second in tackles with 32 as well as two interceptions. Cornerback Al’Zillion Hamilton entered the portal but changed his mind and stayed. He provides leadership in the secondary along with Cameron Bracha and Jayden Davis as safeties. The Bulldogs are steady on special teams as Dylan Lynch has made all 23 extra points and is 8/12 on field goals with a long of 43 yards. Fresno State will need to maintain their momentum and avoid a costly turnover.
The Aztecs continue to impress, entering into the conference championship discussion.
On the heels of a four game win streak, the Aztecs are suddenly contenders for the Mountain West Conference lead. Right now, the top teams are the Aztecs, Boise State, UNLV and Fresno State. Fresno and San Diego will play and knock one piece off the board. Boise State owns the head to head against UNLV. Fresno State plays Boise State on November 1 and Boise State plays San Diego State on November 15. Both teams avoid UNLV. The round robin will probably dilute the overall effectiveness of most teams. A team that runs the table will certainly have the advantage come championship game time. The Aztecs will rely both on offense and defense in their efforts to be one of those teams. One key player on defense that has shown up game after game is linebacker Owen Chambliss. The transfer from Utah was homesick and returned to the San Diego area to play for the Aztecs. He has over 50 tackles and is a team leader. Overcoming injuries, he’s secured a spot in the vaunted Aztec defense. His efforts have paid dividends. The Aztecs are tied for sixth in the country in scoring defense (12.2 points per game), eighth in third-down conversion rates (25.8%) and tied for 11th in red-zone defense (71.4%). Chambliss is graded out as the 14th-best linebacker in the country according to Pro Football Focus. From a tactical perspective, his 6’3”, 230 pound frame is suited for his style of play. An excellent cover backer, he bring versatility and athleticism to the weakside of an offensive formation, he can cover both tight ends and slot receivers.
“He is kind of the glue between the front half of our defense and the back half of our defense,” said defensive coordinator Rob Aurich. “He’s probably been the most valuable player for us on third down because of his flexibility as an athlete. A lot of people don’t realize how big he is.”
The Aztecs have been able to refocus after their surprising loss at Washington State. Coach Sean Lewis has said there is an urgency to win. Last season was a morphing and establishing of his system. This year, it has come to together in a most spectacular way. Lewis has jumped from the hot seat after that loss to a hot candidate of potential interest. Their 5-1 start is on pace to get the Aztecs to double digit wins. Can they top their recent 12-2 mark set in 2021? They’ve set the bar and all things are possible.
What will be the outcome of the game?
This game is really looking like an exciting matchup. A full stadium in Fresno. A peaking Aztecs team. Both teams have shown offensive prowess. This will most assuredly be centered around having no turnovers. The Aztecs have shown they can turnovers into defensive scores. Jayden Denegal and company have created a resurgence of the Aztec offense. Chris Chambliss and company have solidified the cornerstone of Aztec defense. All things point to an Aztec victory. Strange things have happened in teh Mountain West this season and this writer is going to predict that strange things will be happening in the Valley. It might be the fog. It might be the doghouse. I think Fresno will regroup, find a way to come out quick and hand the Aztecs a surprise upset loss. It will be decided in the final two minutes of the game and I think a Fresno State field goal puts the game in the home team’s favor, 27-25. Of course, it’s possible the game is flipped, but the way the conference is going, it will be a season of king of the hill and knock the leaders off the top. With the possible exception of Boise State, who look to be pretty well solidified on the top after their recent victory over UNLV.
Around the Mountain West Conference
The big game with Boise State and UNLV turned more into a plop after the Broncos shredded the Rebels defense for 56 points last week, securing their position at the top of the conference. UNLV does not play either Fresno or San Diego State and if they win out, it could cause a jumble for the second place position. Air Force got into the win column, beating Wyoming 24-21. Hawaii continues to show the big play ability as they travelled to Fort Colllins and took down the Rams 31-19 in front of over 40,000 fans. Hawaii might get consideration for the conference championship game with four conference games remaining. They avoid Boise State, but take on UNLV the end of November. Hawaii is 3-1 in conference. New Mexico holds on to beat Nevada for their first conference win as well. Finally, Utah State held on to defeat a spiraling San Jose State team, 30-25. This is the fourth loss for the Spartans while having a lead going into the fourth quarter. Utah State showed answers to the Spartans offense and have an outside shot at consideration, but their road goes through Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State. The Spartans avoided both Boise State and UNLV but their two close conference losses will probably hamper those efforts. It’s too soon to be looking ahead to the Aztecs and Boise State game on November 15. They have business to take care of this weekend. Favored, but open for surprises, this game is looking to be the most exciting of the week. Other contests include Nevada hosting Boise State (Can the Broncos top 60 points?). New Mexico hosting Utah State. A large crowd is expected in a newly charged Lobos fan base. Finally, Wyoming hosts Colorado State in the annual Border War rivalry. These two schools have met for 116 times with Colorado State leading 60-51-5. The Rams need a win as they search for a new coach. Wyoming needs to get back in the win column. This game is a toss up. The loser will drop out of any post season consideration. Hawaii, UNLV, SJSU and Air Force all have byes this week as they head into the second half of conference play. The Aztecs have been the surprise team of the conference. If they can put together a strong game and beat Fresno State, it will be a deciding matchup against Boise State that will determine first place in the regular season. AztecFast has lived up to its name on both offense and defense. This season has been magical. Will it continue?
