The Gunners finish off a three match road trip when they travel to Germany on Wednesday for the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 against Bayer Leverkusen.
After finishing with a perfect eight wins in the league phase, Arsenal’s path to the final could not be any more favorable. By the time the dust had settled on the draw, the Gunners were set up for a potentially deep run, especially compared to their Premier League counterparts. But any NCAA March Madness fan will tell you that brackets
were made to be busted, and nothing is decided yet.
Arsenal’s FA Cup run has been similarly charmed for the Premier League leaders, and the knock on effect was particularly beneficial this week when Mikel Arteta rolled out a heavily-rotated side during their 1-2 victory away to Mansfield Town FC ahead of Wednesday’s trip. A bevy of central players were left out with the gaffer able to afford rest to a few of the more heavily utilized starters.
The fatigue of the dense fixture list has been noticeable in recent matches. Defensive dominance has been replaced with harried, nervy endings. Sharpness has been harder to come by, and results have been less than confidence-inspiring. Whether that galvanizes the side or drains them is the big concern, but for now, they have been doing what they need to, notching result after gritty result through the first two months of the calendar year. Despite what the media narrative may say, wins don’t care how you earn them.
Arsenal’s draw is a double-edged sword. Their (deserved) easier path means raised expectations, and anything less than a spot in the semifinals will be considered a failure. Leverkusen are a far cry from the likes of Real Madrid or PSG, but they will certainly relish a chance to deliver a blow to the Gunners’ CL hopes on Wednesday. With the spotlight on them and the pressure on, can the Gunners keep churning out wins when it matters?
Here are three talking points ahead of Wednesday’s match:
Know the Enemy
Bayer Leverkusen enter the Champions League round of 16 following a 16th place finish in the league phase and defeating Olympiacos in the knockout rounds.
Leverkusen are, in many ways, a bit of an Arsenal analog. Following years of being dubbed “Neverkusen” following a string of 2nd place finishes in the Bundesliga in the early 2000s, they shocked the world in 2023/24 with their own Invincible season, becoming the first Bundesliga side to go undefeated en route to winning their first-ever title under Xabi Alonso, earning the new nickname “Neverlusen” by the media. Even their beginnings as a club started by workers mirrors the Gunners’ own history.
As Arsenal fans know all too well, though, going unbeaten is an incredibly hard act to follow. In the aftermath of their incredible feat, they have found it difficult to sustain that success. The side that won the league got picked apart, Xabi Alonso was hired (and fired) by Real Madrid, and they have returned to a state of being good-but-not-great. Last season saw them finish second domestically once again, while this season has them just outside a Champions League spot in 6th place under former Denmark manager Kasper Hjulmand.
Their CL campaign started with a whimper. Two draws were followed by a 7-2 thrashing at the hands of reigning title holders Paris St. Germaine. To their credit, they bounced back and notched three pivotal wins to keep them in the competition, one of which came against Manchester City. After losing 2-0 to Olympiacos in their penultimate league phase match, they faced them again in the knockouts, this time coming out on top with a 2-0 aggregate win, earning a spot in the ro16 while sparing Arsenal the headache of potentially facing Olympiacos once again.
Die Schwarzroten have plenty of talent to keep the Gunners honest, with names like Edmond Tapsoba, Alejandro Grimaldo, and Lucas Vazquez in the defense and former Brentford keeper Mark Flekken in goal. In the attack, Patrik Schick is their main threat with 4 goals scored so far in the CL, equalled in their side only by Grimaldo.
Leverkusen are a team that are potent on set pieces as well as in the counter attack. Their willingness to shoot from distance means that Arsenal’s midfield are going to need to control the middle of the pitch and force them to play wide. Even still, they have enough pace and skill out wide to make it difficult for defenders.
The Bundesliga side will be hoping that Arsenal’s frustrations against German clubs in knockout rounds will once again rear its ugly head, with the Gunners having failed to win the tie in all 5 past opportunities. Sure, those past failures all came against Bayern Munich, but football is full of freaky, flukey little stats that find a way of creeping back into the conversation. Arsenal have also played 5 more matches than Bayer. At this stage in the season, fatigue can have a palpable impact, and if the hosts can play on the front foot and catch the Gunners looking leggy, they may fancy their chances.
Injuries & Suspensions
Arsenal suffered two potential setbacks on the weekend when Leandro Trossard and Riccardo Calafiori both were subbed off with knocks. The severity of both are yet unknown, but hopefully the players were given instructions to the effect of “if you feel anything, you’re getting subbed off.”
Mikel Merino remains out long-term, while the health of Martin Ødegaard and Ben White remains uncertain.
OUT: Mikel Merino (foot)
DOUBT: Leandro Trossard (knock), Riccardo Calafiori (hamstring), Martin Ødegaard (knee), Ben White (knock)
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Martinelli, Gyökeres, Saka
Arsenal’s attack hasn’t been firing on all cylinders as of late, but they have shown plenty of glimpses to foster a bit of confidence. Viktor Gyökeres, for all of his hot-and-cold performances, has been far more consistent than Gabriel Jesus, and has shown that he can smash the ball when he’s given the chance. Bukayo Saka finally got back on the scoresheet for the match-winner at Brighton. His CL form has been quite good in recent seasons and he will be crucial for this side’s success this season. Likewise, Gabriel Martinelli seems to flourish in cup comps with 6 CL goals already. With Leandro Trossard picking up a knock on the weekend, Martinelli takes the left.
Midfield: Rice, Zubimendi, Eze
Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi were left back in London for the weekend’s FA Cup tie ahead of the trip to Germany. Neither have been playing at their out and out top level lately with the sheer volume of matches, but they have proven to be an elite combo this season. Martin Ødegaard has yet to return from his knee injury, and Havertz, who started at the 10 on Sunday, is just returning to fitness, which means Eberechi Eze remains the main man at then 10. He had a productive cameo on the weekend, scoring the match winner with a powerful strike. Is this the beginning of the mythical spring Eze explosion?
Defense: Hincapie, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber
Thanks to the generous UEFA rulebook, Piero Hincapie is available to face off against his parent club. He has grown in leaps and bounds as the season has gone on en route to becoming the preferred starter on the left, especially with Riccardo Calafiori struggling to remain fit. Gabriel was rested, while William Saliba was left out for a second match with a reported ankle issue. I will choose to remain optimistic that he will be available. If not, Cristhian Mosquera likely comes into the side. Jurrien Timber came on for the final 30 minutes on the weekend and starts on the right.
Keeper: Raya
David Raya earned his 14th clean sheet of the Premier League season against Brighton on Wednesday as he vies for a third straight Golden Glove. He will look to continue being the bedrock at the back away in a pivotal tie.
The media narrative has become nauseatingly repetitive. To hear some of them tell it, Arsenal are boring set piece merchants who are single-handedly killing the beautiful game and don’t deserve to be champions. All of that noise means little, and will mean even less if they keep churning out results. They have been the most consistent side in not just the Premier League, but Europe as well. No amount of contrived rage-bait coverage can diminish what they have done so far. For all of their warts, they simply take care of business. The next two and a half months will be pivotal, but if they stay the course, there is bound to be a payoff at the end.
WHO: Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen
WHAT: Champions League round of 16 1st leg
WHEN: Wednesday, March 11th, 1:45pm EST/10:45am PST/5:45pm GMT
WHERE: BayArena, Leverkusen
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on the Paramount+ app
For all your international streaming needs, check LiveSoccerTV.com. Please do not share or discuss links to illegal streams here.
