In recent years, the Lakers have run into a problem.
They’ve taken a few successful inexpensive fliers, including Malik Monk and Dennis Schröder, but they’ve lacked the ability to retain those guys after they popped. That might not be the case next summer, which could bode especially well for the likes of Ziaire Williams and Matisse Thybulle.
The NBA recently updated its salary-cap projection for the 2027-28, bumping it up from the initial $174 million to $176 million. The luxury-tax line and the aprons
will also rise by roughly $2 million, which will give every team in the league extra financial wiggle room.
That’s particularly valuable for the Lakers, who structured their books to make one more big splash next offseason.
Austin Reaves took $5 million less than a max contract this summer to give the Lakers “more future flexibility.” He did so by taking roughly a 4% raise in 2027-28 rather than the full 8% raise that he was eligible to receive. The Lakers also structured Sandro Mamukelashvili’s contract in a unique fashion, making it dip by $650,000 in 2027-28 before going back up by $650,000 in each of its final two years.
In case you have Windhorst Face right now, the Lakers’ intentions aren’t exactly top-secret.
The new cap projection could make it easier for them to maintain access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, too.
Could Ziaire or Matisse stick?
Since both Williams and Thybulle signed one-year deals this offseason, the Lakers will only have non-Bird rights on them next summer. That means they can’t offer them more than 120% of a minimum contract or their previous salary (whichever is greater) without dipping into another salary-cap exception.
If either one has a breakout season in L.A., the Lakers could use either some or all of their MLE to re-sign them next summer. If they do have access to the full non-taxpayer MLE, they could always look to split it between Williams and Thybulle, too. Teams don’t have to spend the full MLE on one player. The Philadelphia 76ers split theirs this past offseason between Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons, for instance.
The Lakers should also have access to the bi-annual exception, which is currently projected to land at roughly $5.85 million. That alone might be enough to re-sign one of Williams or Thybulle, allowing them to preserve the MLE for another target.
However, using either the non-taxpayer MLE or the bi-annual exception will hard-cap the Lakers at the first apron, which is projected to land at roughly $222 million. They’d need to leave themselves with at least $22 million of wiggle room under the first apron to preserve access to both the non-taxpayer MLE and bi-annual exception next summer.
If Jarred Vanderbilt and Collin Sexton pick up their respective player options for 2027-28, the Lakers will already be up to $181.6 million in guaranteed salary. If they pick up their team options on Dalton Knecht ($6.45 million), Jaden Hardy ($6.0 million), Bronny James ($2.5 million) and Adou Thiero ($2.5 million), they’d be up to $199.1 million with 12 players under contract. That would leave them with just enough space under the first apron to spend both the non-tax MLE and the bi-annual exception if the current projections hold.
Granted, the Lakers could easily decline their team option on Hardy next summer if they decide that they need a few extra million dollars in breathing room. They have to decide on Knecht’s option by the end of October, but they have until June 29 to decide on Hardy, Bronny and Thiero.
The Lakers could also wipe out this flexibility with a midseason trade, of course. Just because they’re currently projected to have enough room for the non-taxpayer MLE next summer doesn’t mean that they’ll enter the offseason with the exact same roster.
Still, the way that they structured Reaves and Mamukelashvili’s contracts suggests that they’re eyeing next summer as their chance to make another medium-to-big splash. If that doesn’t pan out, they could at least have those cap exceptions to spend on either Thybulle or Williams if needed.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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