In advance of the 2026 season, it’s time to take a look at Detroit’s biggest rivals. Rosters around the AL Central have experienced a lot of turnover this winter, especially in Chicago and Minnesota, and some under the radar trades have shored up the depth for the top-heavy KC Royals. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are still led by Jose Ramirez and a band of misfits that I’ll inevitably regret underrating. This four-part series will be a brief summary of what to expect from each team, highlighting
the major gains and losses to the roster, their projected strengths and weaknesses, and a key player who could flip the entire season on its head if things break right. Today, we’re starting with the Kansas City Royals, who are projected to be Detroit’s stiffest competition for an AL Central title.
Projected Record and Team Summary
The two most reputable project systems, at least at the team-level, are PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus, and the Depth Charts from FanGraphs. The two naturally value different teams and players differently, but the broad steps they use to project standings – determine how good each player on each team is, assign playing time, and then simulate the season thousands of times with different injury scenarios and luck – are similar. PECOTA projects the Royals as an 85-77 team, which wins the division, while Depth Charts has them for 81-81 and a few games behind the Tigers.
It’s worth noting none of this is certain, of course, and I don’t have deep access to either’s methodology. The Royals are a team of extremes that projection systems tend to evaluate differently. Recently, the Royals have had a ‘stars-and-scrubs’ approach to team building around Bobby Witt Jr. This year seems poised for more of the same, but a few small moves have helped shore up their depth, especially in the outfield.
The winter saw KC spend about $7M in free agency to bring in former Tiger Alex Lange and two depth outfielders, Lane Thomas and Starling Marte. That’s all. Trades for Isaac Collins of Milwaukee and Kameron Misner of Tampa Bay furthered the outfield depth; Collins is a projected starter in a corner after an unexpectedly excellent rookie year. Their likely most impactful trade was to snag Matt Strahm, a good lefty reliever, from a cash-strapped Phillies roster to bolster the bullpen. Extensions to key players Maikel Garcia, Sal Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino ensure the band stays together for a long time, but the organization continued to make small additions around a solid core rather than take a big swing.
Greatest Strength: Star Power
Is it a cop-out to say Bobby Witt Jr and leave it at that? Any roster with him on it starts in an excellent position; he’s simply the best shortstop in baseball right now and the best single player in the division. KC is clearly built in a “if he goes, we go” fashion around Witt and a few other stars. Cole Ragans is one of the better lefty starters in the game and projects as a top 15 or so starter if he’s healthy in 2026. Meanwhile, Garcia and Pasquantino anchor the top of the lineup around Witt, while Strahm and Carlos Estevez are a strong 1-2 duo at the back of their bullpen. The issue is what comes next.
Currently, KC is counting on two rookies, two over-30 veterans with 2.2 total fWAR over the last two years, and a second-year player Milwaukee didn’t believe in, to fill out their lineup behind the big three. In the rotation, it’s more of the same, as only Ragans projects for meaningfully above average production. Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic project as about average, while Seth Lugo looks pretty much done as his strikeouts have plummeted. Building depth around their top guys has been a longstanding struggle they don’t quite appear to have solved this year. They’ll need good health and a few breakout performances to really threaten Detroit this year.
Greatest Weakness: The Outfield
This is absolutely just the outfield. KC’s outfield in 2025 posted a combined .617 OPS, roughly equal to uh… Manual Margot’s production? Did you remember he was a Tiger for a few weeks? That was their average outfielder. It was .019 worse than the next worse team, a Cleveland outfield we’ll be talking about later. Bringing in Isaac Collins is a good start, but they probably shouldn’t count on him repeating his age-28 rookie breakout. History has generally been unkind to hitters who rely on walks alone to garner offensive value. His speed and defense give him a high enough floor, but Isaac is probably more fourth outfielder than everyday corner option going forward. Meanwhile, the veterans Starling Marte and Lane Thomas are already fourth outfielders or platoon options, while Misner is purely optional depth. Getting so little production from the easiest positions to add cheap offense seems likely to hamstring KC once again.
X-Factor: Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen
If any player is likely to significantly alter KC’s season in a good way, it’s the dynamic duo of Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen. The two debuted last year to very opposing results, but both showcased their tools and upside. Look for them to build on 2025 as they adapt to their first tastes of MLB level pitching.
Jensen is a patient catcher with tremendous raw power and roughly average defense. His late-season debut yielded an excellent .941 OPS and strong underlying power metrics in 20 games, with a surprisingly low 17.4% K rate. Of course, 20 games doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s as positive of a start as a rookie can have. He seems likely to split time around catcher and DH with Perez as he phases into the power-hitting, clubhouse-favorite backup phase of a strong career. If he can maintain even a little of his stunning debut, he’ll be a lineup mainstay for years to come. Catchers that hit like this are very hard to replace.
Caglianone had just about the opposite debut, but the talent is undeniable. Caglianone destroyed the SEC in 2023 and 2024 enroute to the 6th overall selection in the 2024 draft. He then tore up the minor leagues and earned a MLB promotion on June 3rd, just 11 months later. Caglianone is a slugger in the Giancarlo Stanton mold; he’s a huge physical specimen who swings terribly hard and posts eye-popping exit velocities, but adds little value elsewhere. He isn’t fast and doesn’t play defense well, but his offensive ceiling is so high it just might not matter. He’s looked much improved this spring training and cranked this massive home run off a solid MLB lefty, Ryan Yarbrough, in the WBC. Things didn’t go his way in 2025, but an unfathomable .172 BABIP and an above-average xwOBA suggest he’ll be just fine moving forward.
These two youngsters hitting the way KC expects turn the offense from 3 good hitters and a group of underwhelming veterans into a threatening lineup where Sal Perez bats closer to 7th than 4th. That’s plenty of support for Bobby Witt Jr and Cole Ragans. However, if they struggle to adjust to MLB hitting over a full season, that puts a lot of stress on Starling Marte or Jonathan India being better than replacement level.
Overall, Kansas City has built a roster along the same lines of the recent Tigers’ teams: a few great players anchor the roster while some critical rookies have an outsized responsibility on a team close to contending. There’s undeniable upside, but considerable risk, too. They made very few additions to a team that won 82 games last year and seem to be hoping for the AL Central classic strategy of “sneak into October and get hot”. With Bobby Witt Jr, anything’s possible, but it feels like there’s too many holes on the roster and not nearly enough depth to really count them in unless things go perfectly for them.
