Chicago, Chicago, that toddling town
Chicago, Chicago, I will show you around, I love it
Bet your bottom dollar you’ll lose the blues in Chicago, Chicago.
…Not So Fast, My Friend!
Ahhh, glad I figured out a way to shoehorn a quick tribute to the great Lee Corso right off the bat.
First, a quick note. Back in May, I posted my game-by-game season preview. The result? 12-5 and the NFC North crown, with a great deal of optimism for our postseason chances. Nothing has happened to change my mind. Hold that
thought as some doomerism – however temporary – creeps in below.
Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss
Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Soldier Field to face the allegedly reinvigorated Chicago Bears. I use the word “allegedly” because, well, we’ve been here before with the Bears. Just in the not-so-distant past, Marc Trestman arrived with Ben Johnson-like fanfare to fix the offense, not mess up the defense, and lead them to Super Bowl glory. Yeah, they should have kept Lovie Smith. Trestman took over a 10-6 team but went 13-19 over the next two seasons and was let go. In Trestman’s defense, he did have to navigate the stormy seas of “Don’t Care” Jay Cutler, which is the coaching equivalent of trying to navigate the Drake Passage on a rowboat.
After John Fox managed to make a bad situation outright apocalyptic for Bears fans, the newest offensive superstar/guru/supposed fix for the Bears – Matt Nagy – stepped in. Just look at what he achieved with the Eagles and Chiefs! With a promising, Top 10 drafted quarterback of the future in Patrick Mahomes Mitchell Trubisky, it seemed the narrative initially had promise with a 12-4 season and an NFC North title. But, alas, the 2018 season turned out to be yet another one of those fluky good seasons the Bears have been known for throughout this century (e.g., 2001, 2006, 2010). A “double doink”, followed by 22-27 stretch, and it was goodbye Matt Nagy.
Fast forward to 2025, and Ben Johnson is the latest offensive wunderkind aiming to turn the Bears’ fortunes around. His resume is undoubtedly impressive, as he led the Detroit Lions to a Top 5 offensive ranking every year as coordinator. Last year, they ranked #1 in points per game at 33.2. As Vikings fans, we’ve seen firsthand the prowess and brutal efficiency of Johnson’s scheme. In the six games he faced us as the Lions’ OC, he scored at least 30 points against us five times. Four of those games were against Brian Flores. The famous poet and philosopher Meatloaf wisely noted that two out of three ain’t bad. Five out of six? Well, that’s lights out.
Will This Time Be Different?
The most interesting storyline for me is how Johnson integrates the contrasting strengths of Jared Goff and Caleb Williams. The former is incredibly skilled at operating on time and in rhythm. If there’s a breakdown, the fallback options are nonexistent. The latter excels in such situations, with a rare ability to create magic amid chaos. Patrick Mahomes is the greatest QB of his generation because he’s extraordinarily adept at both. Indeed, the perfect hybrid of those styles.
Given the circumstances – GM Ryan Poles’ negligence in entrusting his key rookie year to Matt Eberflus –Williams performed reasonably well. At a 30,000-foot level, 3,500 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions are solid numbers. Looking closer, there is definitely room for improvement. This includes, among other metrics, increasing completion percentage efficiency (62.5%—league average was 65.3%), boosting adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.09—league average was 6.13), and lowering an abysmal sack percentage (10.79%—league average was 6.87%). The extent to which Johnson can incorporate some Goff-like elements into Williams’ game will significantly influence not only these numbers but also the overall success of the Bears’ season.
The supporting cast is legit. Dennis Allen is a proven defensive coordinator who should have a talented group ready to go at the outset. Like the Vikings, strengthening the offensive line was a priority. The additions of left guard Joe Thuney, center Drew Dalman, and right guard Jonah Jackson will pay immediate dividends. The DN’s Warren Ludford provided an excellent recap of the Bears’ off-season, so no need to go into too much detail. Check it out. Despite being the hottest of hot commodities, Ben Johnson opted to stay in Detroit last year. This prudent strategy appears to have worked out, as the Bears (at least on paper) seem to be an ideal location for a rookie head coach to make an immediate mark. The quarterback position is a huge X-factor, but if Williams takes the aforementioned leap under Johnson’s guidance, this team will be a problem.
How Will It Unfold?
I was torn between two convincing narratives. On one hand, it’s always better to face a new coaching regime early. Schemes are different, and familiarity and chemistry take time to build. Both rosters are talented, but the Vikings have the edge. They won 14 games last year and are now even deeper. Ben Johnson, as head coach, is an unproven commodity. KOC and his staff are known, and what we know is excellent. Again, advantage Vikings.
Then again, the game is in Chicago. If this game were at U.S. Bank Stadium, I’d have us winning this one, no doubt. And we will come Week 11. But…but…Shawn, we’ve won five straight at Soldier Field. I don’t care. Last year was in overtime. Four of the five were one-score games. The previous 15 trips? That would be 3-12. The memories remain, and they’re sunk in like an Alabama tick. I don’t care if we fielded an offense of prime Tarkenton, Peterson, Moss, Jefferson, Carter, and the best we ever had to offer at the other 17 starting spots on both sides of the ball. I’d still have zero confidence we win by more than one score at Soldier Field. Nothing is easy there…ever.
Earlier this spring, I had to say about Week 1:
Ben Johnson will pull every damn rabbit he has out of a hat for his debut before a raucous MNF crowd. Hide the football plays, flea flickers, running back passes, fake punts, fake field goals, Philly Specials, you name it. I’m on record as saying our secondary will need some time to gel, and going against DJ Moore and Rome Odunze is not ideal out of the gate. J.J. McCarthy gives us the lead late, but Caleb Williams makes a huge play to set up a field goal with no time to answer.
Chicago Bears: 23
Minnesota Vikings: 21
Concerns about the secondary were present for me in May, before training camp, and now as we start the regular season. The unclear status of Harrison Smith for the opener and the fading early hype surrounding Jeff Okudah do little to ease those fears. I’d be surprised if Johnson didn’t prioritize a quick-hitting, short-passing game and rolling Williams out of the pocket to help counter the Vikings’ strong pass rush. We’ve also shown vulnerability to athletic quarterbacks who can extend plays on the ground. That could be a factor too. In the long run, we should be okay; Flores will have the group functioning smoothly. But it will take time.
Unfortunately, I’m going to stick with this prediction: 23-21 Bears. Yuck. It sucks, but it’s like stubbing your toe – the pain is sudden and intense, but it fades quickly. The good news? J.J. McCarthy will be just fine. His real coming out party will be next week at home against the Atlanta Falcons.
Final Thoughts
In the prognosticating and betting worlds, weeks 1-4 of the NFL season are perilous waters. Trends don’t often emerge until October, and what you see early can sometimes be misleading. The 2024 Ravens started the season 0-2 with an inexplicable home loss to the putrid Raiders. They finished 12-5. These Bears? Remember their 4-2 start? Yeah, me neither. End result? 5-12.
I hope I’m wrong. It’s something that comes easily, so I’ll look forward to joyously coming back here to roast myself accordingly.
