Tony Vitello has put together 60 different batting orders in 77 games with 8 different lead-off hitters so far this season. The Giants have had four different players log at least 40 plate appearances at the top of the order, which along with the Seattle Mariners, is the most across the Majors. There are plenty of teams with three, and Washington, Toronto, and both LA squads have really one true lead-off man.
Mostly gone are the light-power-but-high-average speedsters, it’s all about getting your
best hitter the most chances to swing the game’s outcome. The Nationals’ James Wood (362 PA) and Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani (324 PA) are the prototypical number-1 hitters now. They’re the cherry on top, the tip of the spear: Intimidating power with an impressive ability to get on base and be athletic and threatening once they get there. Their job is to immediately make the opposing pitcher regret becoming a pitcher. Both Woods and Ohtani have this effect. They step into the box and the diamond’s center of gravity shifts towards the plate.
Luis Arraez doesn’t create that same imbalance. He’s entertaining to watch for sure, and he can be a headache for pitchers, but he’s not nearly as dynamic. Arraez has served as the Giants lead-off man ten times so far: twice to start the season, and seven times over the last 8 games. He’s an intuitive, if a little “old school,” option. He’s certainly got the experience, topping a batting order in 431 games (427 games started), adding up nearly 2000 plate appearances in which he’s batted .321/ .363/ .418.
But is he the best option for the Giants? If he isn’t, than who? One has to ask considering how little production this team has got out of their lead-off man. Their 93 wRC+ is tied for 24th in the Majors. Their low batting average and bottom of the barrel base-on-balls rate has their number-1 hitter getting on base less than any other team. Their .277 OBP is 17 points separated from the Reds, the next lowest average, and more than 100 points lower than the top-3 teams’ marks (Dodgers, Nationals, and Athletics).
Being handed the lead-off spot on this team is as cursed as being handed a black spot. Players who have thrived in various pockets and slots in the order have become worse versions of themselves serving in the lead-off role. In 71 plate appearances, Jung Hoo Lee has posted a 90 wRC+ — 39 points below his 129 wRC+ mark. Casey Schmitt is hitting like an all-star with a 136 wRC+, but over the eleven game experiment as a lead-off man at the beginning of June, he couldn’t function. The already swing-happy Schmitt didn’t work a walk in 56 plate appearances. His .232 batting average is actually higher than his on-base percentage, while his 70 wRC+ is nearly half of what he’s posted on the year so far. Since Vitello mercifully pulled him from the top of the order, Schmitt has hit .452 (14-for-31) with a streak of six consecutive multi-hit games.
Of the four players with 40 or more PA batting first, only Willy Adames, who owns the lion share of lead-off plate appearances, has “better” overall numbers hitting lead-off. Note my snarky quotation marks. Punctuation matters. Better is relative and extremely generous here. The difference between Adames’s season 89 wRC+ and his batting order split of 93 wRC+ is nominal. His struggles have been the role’s struggles overall: low walk rate, low average, somewhat decent power. 5 of his 13 homers, and 13 of his 18 doubles have come hitting in the leadoff spot. So far he’s bagged an extra base hit every 7 at-bats; when he’s placed somewhere further down the order, his power is coming through at a much slower clip, knocking an extra-bagger about every 14 at-bats.
Batting lead-off isn’t that different from any other place in the order once a game moves past the first inning. Admittedly you are a bit exposed there as the guinea pig, the scout, the first one out of the space capsule. No one knows if the pitcher’s stuff stuffs until you step up to the plate and have it zip by you. It’s also a unique opportunity in which a batter can lie in-wait and ambush, look for one-pitch in one-location, capitalize on a starter struggling to grow into the game.
The lead-off hitters of LA and Seattle have an OPS over 1.000 in the 1st inning. The numbers for San Francisco’s lead-off men at the start of a game…do not. Both Adames and Schmitt have homered in the opening frame, but overall, this group is setting the wrong tone, batting .197 with .612 OPS and a 71 wRC+.
As much as the spot feels jinxed, these problems have to be more correlation than causation. It’s just another disappointing quirk. There might still be solutions. When you’re this far down, the only direction to go is up, and it stands to reason that Luis Arraez ‘s production will rise to match his career numbers if Vitello sticks with him at the top. The return of Heliot Ramos could be a boost as well. He batted first in 82 games in 2025. While his overall kead-off numbers were pretty average, in the first inning, he was much better, slashing .299/ .341/ .518 with 5 homers.
Or just say “screw it,” and try something totally new. Though he’s never hit lead-off before, Rafael Devers could work — or at least, a Devers producing near his pre-2026 offensive numbers could work. As far as this season goes, Devers has been kind of a lone wolf anyway. 12 of his 23 doubles have come with the bases empty. 9 of his 11 homers have been solo shots, and 7 of those 9 have led off an inning. Suggest it, Tony! We all know how much he likes trying new things!
And if we’re thinking about the player we want to see get the most plate appearances then Bryce Eldridge should be in the conversation. His 13 BB%, .389 OBP, .905 OPS, and 153 wRC+ lead the team, while his .516 SLG is second to Schmitt. He’s been hitting second behind Arraez as of late, why not throw him up at the top?
