In six days, MLB’s free agent season will commence – whom might the Cleveland Guardians target?
Baseball analysts have begun to release their free agent lists with salary projections, so that gives us a chance
to eye up the options and see what might potentially make sense for Cleveland, should they decide to do their usual and make some frugal investments to increase their roster floor. Obviously, no one here is going to object if the Guardians shock the world and sign a Cody Bellinger, a Kyle Schwarber or a Pete Alonso. However, having no legitimate reason to suspect the Dolans have been visited by three Merry Free Agency Spirits last night, we know we should more reasonably look at the bottom of free agent lists and the most reasonably available options to be found there.
First, Baseball America’s top 50 free agent list. Here, we find two names that make the most sense to me:
-Ryan O’Hearn, LHH 1B/RF/DH – 3 years, $45 million
-Harrison Bader, RHH CF – 2 years, $40 million
Analysis: O’Hearn for THREE years seems less likely than O’Hearn for two years, but this is likely still a good value for his production and I think you can reasonably expect him to be a solid cleanup hitter for the next two years. Bader at $20 million a year feels quite steep, but I think that reflects how few ACTUAL centerfielders are available. If his price falls or he ends up looking more at one-year deals, I think the Guardians could be content with him mashing lefties and catching everything in sight while offering a little bit of an attitude edge out there.
Next, MLB Trade Rumors’ top 50 free agent list.
-Brad Keller, RHrP, 3 years, $36 million
-Ha-seong Kim, RHH 2B/SS, 2 years, $30 million
-Ryan O’Hearn, LHH 1B/RF/DH, 2 years, $26 million
-Harrison Bader, RHH, CF, 2 years, $26 million
-Ryan Helsley, RHrP, 2 years, $24 million
-Gleyber Torres, RHH, 1 year, $22 million
-Luke Weaver, RHrP, 2 years, $18 million
-Pete Fairbanks, RHrP, 2 years, $18 million
Analysis: Again, O’Hearn, Kim and Bader make a lot of sense to me at those numbers, but there are lot of reasonably available relievers here, also, should the Guardians be willing to go 2-3 years on a deal.
Next Tim Britton of the Athletic offered some free agent contract projections. Here, there are a few more values that make sense to me for the Guardians, if Britton’s projections prove accurate:
Ryan O’Hearn, LHH 1B/RF/DH – 2 years, $36 million
Trent Grisham, LHH CF – 3 years, $54 million
Ha-seong Kim, RHH 2B/SS – 3 years, $50 million
Gleyber Torres, RHH 2B – 3 years, $48 million
Jorge Polanco, SH 2B/DH – 2 years, $35 million
Harrison Bader, RHH CF – 2 years, $32 million
Brad Keller, RHrP – 2 years, $30 million
Michael Kopech, RHrP – 2 years, $22 million
Devin Williams, RHrP – 1 year, $18 million
Ryan Helsley, RHrP – 1 year, $16 million
Rhys Hoskins, RHH 1B/DH – 1 year, $10 million
Analysis: For me, these reliever projections are very inexpensive. If you see these quality of relievers falling into 1-year contract territory, don’t be surprised to see the Guardians make their one, big, offseason splurge to snag one of them. Other than that, I think Britton may be underestimating how much legitimate centerfield defenders who can hit a little bit will make, but I could see the Guardians playing in the Grisham or Bader markets at these prices, allowing them to not attempt to put Chase DeLauter’s health at risk by asking him to play centerfield almost full-time. And, don’t dismiss the possibility that the team pursues a second baseman on a 1-2 year deal, pushing Bazzana’s timeline back a little. I don’t think they’d do Torres for 3 years, and Polanco is so bad defensively at second that you’d probably need to see if he can move to first – but they are names to keep an eye on. O’Hearn’s and Hoskins’ numbers here would make a lot of sense for the Guardians should they like either of those players as the guy to split time with Manzardo between first and DH.
Here are some names of interest from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 free agent list:
-Kazuma Okamoto, RHH 1B/3B, 3 years, $36 million
-Ryan O’Hearn, LHH 1B/RF/DH, 2 years, $27 million
-Jorge Polanco, SH 2B, 2 years, $26 million
-Harrison Bader, RHH CF, 2 years, $25 million
-Brad Keller, RHrP, 2 years, $22 million
-Ha-seong Kim, RHH 2B/SS, 1 year, $16 million
-Caleb Ferguson, LHrP, 2 years, $15 million
Analysis: Wow, any one of the O’Hearn, Bader and Kim deals look amazing here for me, if the Guardians are willing to even bring payroll in 2026 back to 2025 levels. Also, this is the most affordable deal for Okamoto I’ve seen projected, so I’d hope the Guardians would be engaged on that (even if a Japanese player is unlikely to choose Cleveland because of no-direct flights to Japan from our airport).
Finally, FanGraphs’ top 50 free agent list.
-Trent Grisham, LHH CF – 3 years, $54 million
-Gleyber Torres, RHH 2B – 3 years, $54 million
-Kazuma Okamoto, RHH 1B/3B – 4 years, $72 million
-Devin Williams, RHrP – 2 years, $24 million
-Ryan Helsley, RHrP – 2 years, $24 million
-Harrison Bader, RHH CF – 2 years, $30 million
-Ryan O’Hearn, LHH 1B/DH – 2 years, $30 million
-Jorge Polanco, SH 2B – 2 years, $30 million
-Ha-seong Kim, RHH, 2B/SS – 2 years, $26 million
-Brad Keller, RHrP – 2 years, $24 million
-Caleb Ferguson, LHrP – 1 year, $8 million
-Luke Weaver, RHrP – 1 year, $9 million
-Hoby Milner, RHrP – 1 year, $8.5 million
Analysis: If the Guardians aren’t heavily in on O’Hearn at this price (or some of the others even lower listed above) I will be mad online. Caleb Ferguson at $8 million seems like an absolute steal, as does Keller at 2/$24M. Pretty much everyone I’ve been interested in for the above lists is even more attainable by FanGraphs’ projections. I continue to think, based on past offseasons, that the Guardians are very likely to land a notable reliever for an eyebrow-raising amount of money this offseason, especially if names like the above are getting 1-2 year deals.
You can peruse these lists to see that several names are projected at higher numbers than where I feel the Guardians will go and at numbers in their price range, depending on the outlet. I, obviously, don’t expect the Guardians to be big spenders in free agency, but, currently, their commitments stand around $65 million by may calculation. That SHOULD enable them to go acquire – through free agency and/or trade – a right-handed hitting outfielder, a first baseman, and two relievers, should they want to do so. I expect them to be opportunistic in targeting starters looking for pillow deals, especially folks like Griffin Canning recovering from surgery. But, I’d be surprised if they signed a starter listed in these top 50 lists, so I did not address any above – due to their relatively deep starting rotation options on hand.
If I had to predict, I do think the Guardians will land Rhys Hoskins or someone equivalent to that. I know, I know, pop the champagne and release the confetti cannons. But, maybe they’ll surprise us! Let me know which name and numbers you like from the lists above in the comments below.
