The Portland Trail Blazers have a problem. Even with the unfortunate news about Shaedon Sharpe’s torn meniscus earlier this week, the roster is still severely imbalanced, featuring an overabundance of small guards needing court time.
Whether you want to believe the Blazers’ reported interest in Peyton Watson and Jonathan Kuminga, that’s fine, but for the purposes of this piece, let’s assume the front office is done dealing for the summer. When it comes to predicting who will earn the team’s starting
backcourt roles, said overabundance creates confusion over who falls where in the pecking order.
The candidates include Damian Lillard, Ja Morant and Scoot Henderson. Jrue Holiday isn’t as much of a problem given his ability to defend and play bigger than his stature would normally dictate. It’s the preceding trio that concerns me and how coach Micah Nori manages the lineup, and perhaps more importantly, the egos.
Before I go any further, I want to establish the following is what I think should happen, not what will likely happen. In reality, it feels like it’s a fait accompli that Morant and Lillard will be the starting backcourt on opening night, but that doesn’t mean it’s the optimum combination.
Nori may feel compelled to start Morant alongside Lillard, even if the duo endangers the defensive identity this team has worked to cultivate over the past three years. The fact that both parties need the ball in their hands, as well as point forward Deni Avdija, will make refining a coherent offense that much more difficult.
Let’s consequently throw that pairing out the window and think a little more practically about the best way forward, highlighting the combination that’s best for this team winning games.
As far as point guard is concerned, it should be Lillard. I know he’s weeks off his 36th birthday and a year removed from an Achilles tear but if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, it’s Lillard, who’s had months to prepare his body for the rigors of an NBA regular season.
Morant still has work to do to re-ingratiate himself to the NBA world. It’s the reason the Blazers got him for a song. The fact that he said he’s fine coming off the bench during his introductory interview with media needs to be tested. If he eventually pans out and re-invigorates his reputation, I could see him being flipped or serving as Lillard’s successor down the line. But he doesn’t deserve to start just yet.
But what happens at shooting guard? There’s obviously Henderson and Holiday. If the roster was a little more balanced, I might have added Toumani Camara but the two-way Belgian will be needed to man the shallow forward positions.
A Lillard and Henderson pairing is a non-starter for me. Henderson showed glimpses of being able to play off the ball late last season. His deficiencies running the offense have probably made him a combo guard, at best. I just think given all the work this franchise has done to be longer, more athletic and defensively focused, running 6’2 Lillard and 6’3 Henderson is a movie we’ve seen before, and it didn’t win any awards.
Lillard and Holiday makes the most sense. Yes, Holiday is 6’4, but outside of Alex Caruso, nobody in the NBA plays bigger than their size than the two-time NBA champion from UCLA.
What’s the goal for the Blazers this season? The rebuild is done. Winning games in a volatile Western Conference, outside the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, is the focus. Everyone’s aware that both men recently turned 36. But if you’re asking me who I trust most out of the candidates discussed, it’s Holiday, and it’s not close.
Holiday can legitimately guard positions one-through-three, and I’d give him the benefit of the doubt against some fours. He works at the point-of-attack, in team schemes and is still incredibly effective as a defensive playmaker. He’s two years removerd from an All-Defensive Second Team honor where he finished sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
On offense, there might not be a more versatile player on this roster. He works on the ball, off the ball, in both sides of a pick-and-roll, in the dunker spot, not to mention boasting a jump shot more reliable than most. Last season, he averaged 16.3 points while shooting 37.8 percent from three (6.8 attempts) and 45.1 percent from the field (13.4 attempts) on 23.5 percent usage.
On a roster devoid of long-range shooting, Holiday is safe, someone that complements Lillard in almost every single way. He compensates for Lillard’s flaws while opening up the floor, making room for the likes of Avdija and Lillard to get to the rim.
On the ball, Holiday can still serve as a point guard, last year averaging 6.1 assists, which ranked 10th among combo guards in assist rate. He was also one of the best backcourt offensive rebounders in the league, pulling down 1.6 a game.
A starting five of Lillard, Holiday, Camara, Avdija and Donovan Clingan offers enough shooting not to be abysmal, more than an enough defense to protect Lillard, and creation from three positions.
Morant and Henderson can work off the bench with each spending a suitable number of minutes with the aforementioned starters.
Conclusion
Though much closer to retirement than their respective rookie years, Lillard, at 80 percent of his former self, and Holiday would present one of the league’s more formidable backcourts on both sides of the ball. It’s all well and good to bring in a former All-NBA name in Morant but, at the end of the day, the goal is to win games of basketball.
Morant needs to prove that he’s deserved of another prime role, and I’m not sure the action of simply giving it to him sets the right example. Not to mention, Morant and Lillard’s shared deficiencies make it easier for oppositions to get the better of this team.
Lillard and Henderson is a non-starter given the obvious defensive and physical shortcomings, not to mention the duplication in skillsets. But Lillard and Holiday make too much sense and needs to be given a chance to develop a rapport.
Don’t be surprised to see Morant and Lillard on opening night, but Nori needs to consider what’s best for the team and that may mean considering a different backcourt that delivers more wins.
