It’s been a minute since the Cubs had a win like this. They trailed in this one 3-0 and 6-1 before coming back, tying it in the eighth inning and eventually walking it off in 10. The plague of the second half downturn for the Cubs has been the failure to come from behind at any point and from any amount. Literally, even one-run deficits in the first inning had been largely insurmountable. The last week or so, they’ve remedied the worst of that. They’ve at least been competitive in the back and forth
games. But it’s been a long time since they had a significant comeback.
Baseball has to be the most unsatisfying sport. We learn that things like clutch generally disappear as samples get large. We learn that great teams aren’t necessarily good in close games. We learn that a big comeback doesn’t necessarily carry over even to the next day, much less at all. Every now and then a team will at least talk about it and tell you that they are emboldened by the memory and experience of having come from behind. It would be great if you could say hey, this will be a new launch point. There just isn’t any overwhelming amount of history that says that is likely to happen.
The saving grace is that this Braves team has underachieved a ton this year. Perhaps, there will be a little carryover, in that you already thought the Cubs would win at least two in this series. Maybe they are slightly more likely to do so. You’d love for the starter to give you a couple scoreless innings to start and for the Cubs to jump out to an early lead. But then, that’s a remedial thing to suggest. Exactly when wouldn’t you think that was a good thing?
The one thing that I take away from this game is how excellent it is to see guys like Ian Happ, Carson Kelly and Dansby Swanson all having huge impacts on this game. Those three have often been maligned the last few months. While any overwhelming huge take away is probably over rated, those three seeing some success maybe helps get Kelly going and continue the surge that has been going on for Happ and Swanson. Unsurprisingly, a couple of the Cubs older stars are reverting to the numbers on the back of their card.
This one was a lot of fun. Colin Rea and Taylor Rogers dug the Cubs a huge hole in this one. But then three relievers shut the door over the final five innings while the Cubs slowly chipped their way back. The Cubs had three doubles, two homers, three walks and three steals. Interestingly, none of the three steals directly impacted any of the scoring. One of their three walks scored. The Cubs win despite no production out of Michael Busch or Kyle Tucker at the top. Weird one. But very satisfying.
Pitch Counts:
- Braves: 170, 42 BF (9.2 IP)
- Cubs: 179, 45 BF (10 IP)
For the Braves, we see they had a little under 17.6 pitches per inning and 13 excess batters. On the Cubs side, it was 17.9 pitches per inning and 15 excess batters. Not real great on either side. Cubs pitchers walked five, but they did strike out 13. Braves pitchers only walked three, but also only struck out six. The Braves yielded 11 hits total and those three walks. So the Cubs had all kinds of traffic. The seven runs isn’t a fluke. But that’s true on the other side with the Cub pitchers allowing 10 hits and five walks.
Welcome to the team, Aaron Civale. He threw 41 pitches. He’s been stretched as a starter, so he’s hopefully a better version of what they got from Chris Flexen early this year. I don’t think we’ll see him for a few days at least. He has no real experience as a reliever, playoffs notwithstanding. Brad Keller threw 26 pitches and was a little rougher than he’s been since the All-Star break. I would think he might be down Tuesday after heavy usage lately. So the Cubs might be two relievers short Tuesday. But, with the bigger roster, that still leaves seven relievers which is more than enough.
Hunter Stratton and John Brebbia both went over 25 pitches. So they also might be limited in this series. But this impact is minimized with teams carrying an extra reliever in September. With nine relievers, even having two or three down leaves you a bunch of options.
Three Stars:
- I’d be remiss if I didn’t list Carson Kelly up here. Game-tying homer, walk-off hit. That’s the stuff of legend. This one has to in some order sit 1 and 1A for Cub memories with the cycle he had in Sacramento early this year. That one is probably the most amazing accomplishment. But this one might have been more fun, feeding off of the home crowd.
- Aaron Civale may have turned this game with three scoreless innings. He struck out four. It was 6-2 when he was handed the ball. By the time Brad Keller threw the top of the ninth, it was already 6-6.
- Ian Happ adds three more hits, one of them a solo homer. He stole a base and scored twice. That wRC+ sneaks up to 112. Unless he has an absolutely monster month, he’ll probably fall short of his fourth straight 3+ fWAR season. But he should go over 2 and probably over by a good margin. And that wRC+ is closing in on his career average. Not dead yet.
Game 138, September 1: Cubs 7, Braves 6 (79-59)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carson Kelly (.726). 2-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
- This is the largest WPA game score of the season by a Cub and the highest since Keegan Thompson had (.767) last year on April 15.
- Hero: Andrew Kittredge (.307). IP, 3 BF, 2 K
- Sidekick: Brad Keller (.133). IP, 5 BF, 2 BB, 2 K
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.212). 1-5, 2B, R (PO)
- Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.180). 0-5
- Kid: Taylor Rogers (-.172). IP, 7 BF, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 K
WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly had the biggest WPA moment of the game with his walk-off single (.375) with two outs in the ninth. And he’s also second with the two-run, game-tying homer with one out in the eighth (.374).
*Braves Play of the Game: Michael Harris II singled with the bases loaded and two outs in the third inning, to stretch the Braves lead from one to three. (.166) Harris also ends up with the two biggest Brave moments, he doubled with runners on second and third and two outs in the fifth. (.132)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Ian Happ received 90 of 104 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +26
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +15.67
- Carson Kelly/Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -26.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 3). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 5). Reds win (Cubs up 10). The Reds need to finish 20-4 to reach 90 wins. The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 16 with 24 to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers also lose. The Cubs are still back five and a half in the division. We’ll count down the magic number against the Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: Game two of the three-game series. The Cubs start Shōta Imanaga (8-6, 3.08, 117 IP). He’s just 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA over his last seven starts (42 IP). His last win was back on July 30 against the Brewers. Five August starts had a 2.65 ERA though. He’s a little better at home (2.96 vs. 3.18). Last May, he threw five scoreless in Atlanta.
The Braves start 27-year-old Joey Wentz (5-4, 4.92, 78.2 IP). Wentz was a compensation pick in the 2016 draft by the Braves (40th overall). The lefty is 3-3 over his last seven starts (4.06 ERA in 37.2 IP). This will be the 113th appearance of his career, but only his 35th start. Interestingly, he debuted with the Tigers in 2022 and pitched for several teams before coming back to the Braves this year. The Braves are his third team this year and the first that has let him start games. The Braves brought him to the majors in mid-July. He debuted with a three-inning relief outing but then he’s started eight since. Last time out, he allowed one run over 6.2 IP against the Marlins and was the winner.
The Cubs have seen him three different times as a reliever this year, first for the Pirates, then for the Twins. They scored against him all three times. This will be a really fun litmus test for the dichotomy that is the Cubs decent overall numbers against lefty pitches but subpar record against lefty starters. They’ve hit him as a reliever. Will they hit him as a starter?
You have to like the matchup. Let’s make it two straight.
