The past couple of seasons have not gone as planned for the Arizona Diamondbacks finishing just outside of the playoff picture every season since their magical 2023 World Series run. What we all hoped would be the makings of a powerhouse turned out to be more of a team that struggled to turn a corner from a middling 3rd wild card type to a 90+ win a season powerhouse. Going into the 2026-2027 offseason it is perhaps time for this team to receive a bit of a change of identity if the goal is to turn a corner.
That being said, owner Ken Kendrick has already gone on record saying that the payroll is likely to come down from the record highs of 2026. So the question is, does this team have a realistic path to finally turning a corner?
For this plan, I chose 85 projected wins as the benchmark. The 2027 projections I used in this article for the 2027 roster are projections from a Marcel-style WAR model (method by Tom Tango), built on FanGraphs WAR, as of Oct 31, 2026. This is due to the mainstream projections for 2027 not being out just yet. As currently constructed, with no additions, the 2027 D-backs project for about 80 wins (79.9; preseason projections carry roughly ±8 wins of uncertainty). The 85 number comes from me running many many offseason scenarios, and 85 was about the ceiling I could get the projections to with this team with realistic financial resources and realistic trade values. Those I will be outlining in the next section.
The Resources
To help answer that question, I think a good place to start is what resources does this team realistically have going into the offseason. On October 3rd, Jack Sommers did a phenomenal job outlining what the Dbacks financial situation likely looks like heading into the offseason with roughly 162.8M already committed. I suggest you read that article to get the full breakdown of what all that number entails. The 2026 baseline was 192.8M LRD or about 30 million more than what they currently have pledged. It is also likely the team non-tenders Pavin Smith which could save an additional 2 million as well as trimming some money around arbitration contracts, however for the purposes of this article, lets be optimistic and assume Kendrick meant what he said and this team has about 25M to spend this offseason or a small reduction in payroll at just a 2.6% drop.
In addition to money, lets look at what the Dbacks realistically have available to trade:
I will be the first to acknowledge that these trade values are a bit hand wavy as it is really impossible to know how everyone in this organization is valued. However, I attempted a methodology that included future production projections as well as contract and years of control while sprinkling in some prospect status using MLB Pipeline FV. This list is far from perfect, but it passed some of the initial smell tests so I’m going to go with it.
So how much trade value do they realistically have? For some context here, I applied the same methodology to a list of front line starters and this is what I got:
What I gathered from this? The Dbacks are going to have a really hard time acquiring impact front line starting pitching via trade given the resources they have. All four premium chips together (Lawlar, Waldschmidt, Bratt, Fernandez) come to about $45–78M at market.
Next lets try the same table but for left handed impact bats:
So a Pasquantino-level bat (10–18): one premium chip, or two secondary pieces. That’s something like a Troy + Dix package, or maybe a Drake + Groover package. Not really great either especially considering the years of control you would be trading away for a pretty 1 dimensional type player. Do you trade Troy + Morillo for a platoon bat like Colt Kieth or a 28 year old who strikes out at a 30% clip in Kyle Stowers?
So does the trade market really make sense to go out and try and acquire the impact level talent (2-3WAR players) this team needs? Probably not as much as you would think.
How to Get to 85+ Wins?
This is where things really get interesting. In almost every scenario I modeled to get this team to 85+ wins, it involved roughly the same strategy. Essentially completely overhaul the starting rotation. The starting rotation as currently constructed is the teams Achilles heal. The D-backs’ rotation as currently constructed projects in the bottom third of MLB (about 21st-23rd measured by the author’s model), with Merrill Kelly projected at under 1 WAR per 180 innings and Corbin Burnes’s projection limited by his return from Tommy John surgery.
The rotation is the largest weakness on the current roster: it projects about 21st of 28 clubs and roughly 1.7 WAR below an average rotation, across some 870 innings. First base projects even lower relative to the league, but it’s one lineup spot; the rotation’s gap is bigger in total wins and cheaper to close. That’s why most paths to 85 wins start there, with a first-base/left-handed bat and a bullpen floor as the secondary priorities.
Another common theme, was trading away Ketel Marte in order to free up capital. According to my best estimates, trading away Ketel Marte saves this team about 13.75M of LRD payroll flexibility in 2027.
The Moves
Path A: Two free-agent starters + 4 trades (85.3 wins at ~$187.3M)
Path B: One free-agent starter + 4 trades (85.0 wins, $181.9M payroll)
Conclusion
This exercise is limited by my ability to accurately value the players trade value, however I gave it my best effort. Ultimately that value is going to vary from team to team at how they value them based off of their own methods and data that I don’t have access to. One of the biggest variables I found while doing this was what the value of Ketel Marte was going to be. To do that I really focused on the teams that I thought had the biggest need and would be willing to take on the extra baggage he brings along with the most surplus of starting pitching.
The other thing that was interesting to me was all roads apparently go through Trevor Rogers! My models really like him from a starting pitcher projected wins added per dollar amount rate. You could certainly argue for swapping Rogers for Soroka especially because it has been reported Soroka has interest in returning, however my projections only project about 1.8 WAR for Soroka compared to 2.9 WAR for Trevor Rogers even though Rogers also has some durability concerns.
On the offensive side, guys like Colt Keith and Lawrence Butler may not be the names people were hoping for. However Colt Keith I believe could be had given 2nd base being a real weakness in Detroit that Tommy Troy could fill and Keith’s production against righties has been pretty steady .336 regressed xwOBA vs RHP, 77th percentile, steady from 2024–26. 3B is also freed up if Nolan Arenado really is willing to move to first, however Keith is not as good of a 3rd basemen compared to Arenado. Although Keith has played some 1B. My models also really likes Butler in that he is left handed and has been steady against righties xwOBA .347 / .320 / .339 (2024–26) with top end bat speed and exit velocity. He would mostly DH vs righties.
At the end of the day, it is impossible to know the direction the Dbacks will go. Recently there was some reporting the team had interest in young controllable starting pitching, but that is certainly different than tearing this rotation apart. Also the shear volume of trades make both of these scenarios unlikely given how hard it is to make trades and the condensed offseason due to the lockout.
For me, I like both of these scenarios because I was able to keep the big 3 of the bullpen intact while also staying within the financial constraints of the team, while also avoiding completely gutting the farm although it does take a hit. What do you guys think?
