It has been well established that the Washington Nationals pitching staff was a disaster in 2025. They posted a 5.35 ERA as a team, which was the worst in team history. Unsurprisingly, there were not a ton of bright spots on this staff. However, Andrew Alvarez was the rare exception, as he was lights out in his first taste of MLB action.
The 26 year old Alvarez had to scratch and claw to make the Majors. He was a 12th round pick out of Cal Poly in 2021. Guys like that are supposed to be organizational
depth, not future big leaguers. However, Alvarez made it against the odds.
Despite not being a highly touted prospect, Alvarez did have success in the Minor Leagues. His breakout year was in 2023, where he posted a sub-3 ERA across two levels and won the Nationals Minor League pitcher of the year award.
Alvarez was solid again in 2024, posting a sub-4 ERA, but hit a bit of a wall when he hit Triple-A. His ERA in AAA was above 4.5 in 2024, which made him less exciting as a prospect. A guy like Alvarez will never get the benefit of the doubt because he was not a high pick and he does not throw very hard.
In 2025, Alvarez was solid but not spectacular in AAA, posting a 4.10 ERA. However, he improved as the season went along and had a great August in Rochester. That, as well as injuries and underperformance in the Nats rotation gave him an opportunity to be a big leaguer.
After getting called up, Alvarez took full advantage of it. He was a revelation in September, posting a 2.31 ERA in his 5 starts. A lot of the underlying numbers bought into his success as well. He posted a 3.39 FIP and 2.78 xERA. Right from his first outing against the Marlins, Alvarez looked like he belonged.
So how did Alvarez succeed in the MLB? Well, it certainly was not because of his velocity. Alvarez’s fastball only averaged 91.3 MPH in the MLB, well below average. With a light fastball, Alvarez has really learned the art of pitching.
A lot of Nationals pitchers had predictable pitch mixes and relied too much on their mediocre fastballs, but not Alvarez. My favorite thing about him is that he did a great job mixing things up. He threw his 4-seamer 34% of the time, his slider 29% of the time, his curve 27% of the time, while throwing a changeup and sinker both at a 5% clip.
That is a really deep mix and all of those pitchers were useful. Against righties, who he saw a lot of, Alvarez did a great job mixing his heater and breaking balls. That kept hitters off balance and led to a lot of weak contact. They simply did not know what was coming. Against lefties, Alvarez used his slider as his primary pitch. He also threw his sinker a lot more, which is a smart strategy. Sinkers tend to work better against same side hitters.
While the curveball and slider are in a similar velocity range, they have two distinct shapes, which makes things tricky for hitters. Another thing that made Alvarez successful was his ground ball generating abilities. He posted an elite 58.2 GB% this year. Getting ground balls was also something he was very good at in his MILB career, consistently posting GB rates above 50%.
So how sustainable is this? Well, I am not so sure. The fact he was not elite in AAA makes me skeptical. Alvarez did not go deep into games either, averaging under 5 innings per start. With that in mind, I do not believe in him in a traditional starter role.
However, I do think Alvarez should get a shot in a long relief role. He is a unique look that can throw hitters off if they only face him once or twice. However, his lack of power stuff will be exposed if he goes deeper into games. Alvarez is also not the most efficient pitcher. He tends to nibble to compensate for his lower velocity.
Alvarez showed that he can be successful in the MLB. I think he would be a good bulk man if the Nats wanted to use the opener strategy more in 2026. Andrew Alvarez has put himself in a position where he will be battling for a roster spot in 2026.
He will have to earn it next spring, but he will be in the mix. I honestly think he would be a better long relief option than guys like Parker and Irvin. The fact that Alvarez is even in the mix is a big win for the former 12th rounder.
Season Grade: A
