Dana Brown appeared today for his weekly spot on 790’s “The Sean Salisbury show”. He took some time to talk about the state of the Astros with 17 games left.(Prior to tonight’s Jays game)
Credit to Sean, as he does not shy away from asking Dana the tough questions during their interviews.
This day was no different, as Dana was peppered with questions about the health issues and overall play of the team. Specifically, he was asked about the performance of the offense over the course of the season.
As
I listened to the interview, I took the time to pull a number of significant talking points of Dana’s that are important to put into context. Because, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, the Astros haven’t been very good lately.
In fact, the Astros have the 8th worst record in baseball since the All-Star Break at 22-27.(StatMuse) They also have allowed the Mariners and Rangers to close the gap for the AL West as of late. At the time of writing, Seattle and Texas are 1.0 and 2.0 game(s) back respectively. (With the Astros having lost a series to both since the ASB)
There’s more to say to this. But, before I really launch into the statistical angle of the conversation, here are some key quotes from Dana Brown from the show today:
(Each with the timestamp of where to find them in the attached link above)
(starting around 15:02)
Sean Salisbury: “I know the history of the guys at the plate. Do you trust them the same way you did when the season started?”
Dana Brown: “Absolutely…. We just need to get hot… We need to get hot soon… These guys are really good… Look up and down our lineup, the lineup’s good… We’re good enough… Make no mistake, this club is good enough..
Shortly after these words, Dana continued repeating this sentiment:
Around 16:44: “We’re a good enough club”
Around 17:56: “We have a good enough team”
Earlier in the show(roughly 12:57), he said, “We have to lock in”
He also said “It’s go time” at least a couple of times. So, there’s that.
He also made a statement that I thought was very telling. Even though he might’ve meant it in a ‘tongue in cheek’ sort of way, it still stood out.
Sean asked him point blank about how the Astros can fix their hitting woes, Dana responded with: “ We have to close our eyes and imagine swinging at good pitches”..
Uh… right. Anyway, to my assessment of his proclamations.
Dana Brown is not known to throw his guys under the bus in the media. That’s a noble trait to a certain degree. However, what’s problematic is that he tends to sound as though he’s trying to speak things into existence that just aren’t there. Joe Espada is much the same in his interviews, but we’re not here for him right now.
For starters, the Astros rank 25th in baseball at 4.22 runs/game(5th worst). With runners in scoring position, they go:
H: 284 (19th- below average)
AVG: .242 (23rd-7th worst)
OBP: .313 (27th-3rd worst)
SLG: .402 (19th-below average)
OPS: .715 (23rd-7th worst)
I don’t even want to dig into what the numbers are with bases loaded. Trust me when I say, it gets no better. Simply put, what Dana expresses weekly compared to what we see in reality and on the stat sheet just don’t line up.
Speaking of his hitters, in September your two biggest slumpers at the plate are Jose Altuve at .121 and Christian Walker is at .194. Together they are making roughly $50 million this season, and $100 million combined over the next two seasons.
All that to say, while I appreciate and admire how much Dana Brown roots for his team, the truth is it just comes off as wishful thinking at best. At worst? A projection of misguided confidence that isn’t rooted in anything other than, “read the back of the baseball card” ideology.
We all would like for this team to flip a switch and recapture what propelled them to tied for best in the AL plus a 6+ game AL West lead. However, the toll of the season may just be too much for this team to overcome.
To cite injuries would be more than warranted, but that didn’t stop them from climbing the regular season mountain and peering down on the rest of the league. And now, since adding Yordan Alvarez and Jake Meyers back, they are 7-8.That doesn’t look like turning the corner.
Here’s hoping the Astros do find some way to turn things around and look more like who we’re accustomed to. If not, today was just another word salad provided by the GM.
