This is gonna be a long one. I decided to go ahead and basically write up the equivalent of Spark Notes to what each team did this offseason (including only the notable players lost or added), to what (in my opinion) is the biggest catalyst for that team’s success, and who (where applicable) the notable prospects are for each team that could crack the big leagues this year.
For what it’s worth, in the X-Factor sections, I tried not to choose the obvious players (i.e. Judge for the Yankees, Witt for the Royals,
Jose for the Guardians, Ohtani for the Dodgers). For some teams, I did choose their best (at least offensively) player, but with a caveat. The order of the teams is not based on my predictions, but on their finish in the standings last year. Anyway, I hope you enjoy!
American League East
Toronto Blue Jays
Additions: Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers
Subtractions: Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt
X-Factor: Dylan Cease
Close Prospects: RHP Trey Yesavage
Yesavage, indeed, still technically retains prospect status. What catapaulted the Blue Jays to (and through) the postseason last year was their offense. Almost every hitter in their lineup had a career year, and they had one of the best offenses in MLB as a result. Their pitching was… not great. Yesavage and Bieber were crucial for them in the playoffs. Both are not on the Opening Day roster (Yesavage because of a combination of an injury and a whopping total of innings pitched, Bieber because of an injury). Anthony Santander is also on the IL to start the year. He tore his labrum in February, and will miss a significant chunk of the season. Despite this, I still think the Blue Jays are in a great position to re-capture ther AL East this season. Their offense, despite perhaps some inevitable regression, should still be elite. They added one of the most talented pitchers in MLB to their staff in Cease, and with the correct coaching, he is someone who very well could end the year in the Cy Young race. Okamoto projects to be both a great hitter and fielder, which is something they missed at third base last year. They are still one of the best teams in the American League.
New York Yankees
Additions: Ryan Weathers, Randal Grichuk
Subtractions: Devin Williams, Luke Weaver
X-Factor: Bullpen additions from last year’s trade deadline
Close Prospects: RHP Elmer Rodriguez, RHP Carlos Lagrange
The Yankees didn’t really do much externally this offseason. They re-signed Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt, but seem largely content with running back their roster from last year. I’m not necessarily saying that’s a bad thing, just a surprising one given the activity of the other teams in their division. Ryan Weathers, despite surface level stats, projects to be a very good pitcher. Their rotation, if Gerrit Cole looks as good as he did in Spring Training, could very well be the best rotation in MLB. Fried, Cole, Schlittler, Rodon, Weathers, is an extremely formidable rotation with little to no weaknesses, assuming Yankees pitching coach (and former Guardians coach) Matt Blake can unlock Weathers’ potential. Rodon will be on the IL to start the season, along with Anthony Volpe, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt (who will miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July). Schlittler looks to have tweaked his arsenal in the offseason, and projects to be one of the better young starters in the AL. But, the bullpen. It was downright awful last year, even more surprisingly so after the deadline. As a refresher, the Yankees went out and acquired David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Jake Bird at last year’s deadline. Their bullpen was 26th in ERA after the deadline. That is the key to their success. Obviously, the lazy answer would be Judge. Which, I guess, is true. If he spontaneously turns into a lemon this season, that wouldn’t necessarily bode well for their World Series aspirations. But, I’m assuming that doesn’t happen. Their bullpen needs to be better, especially given the strength of their rotation. If the bullpen picks itself up, this pitching staff is most likely the best in baseball. Combine that with a lineup led by arguably the best hitter of the 21st century? Well, sounds like a championship roster to me.
Boston Red Sox
Additions: Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Caleb Durbin
Subtractions: Alex Bregman, Steven Matz
X-Factor: Roman Anthony
Close Prospects: 3B Marcelo Mayer, LHP Payton Tolle, LHP Connelly Early
The Red Sox were extremely active this offseason, going out and trading for Contreras, Gray, and Durbin and signing Ranger Suarez. With Suarez, he did have a relatively significant fastball velocity drop in his last start in Spring Training, which is almost certainly something to watch. One of the bigger concerns with him as a free agent was his declining fastball velocity. Alas, their rotation is good enough to overcome some regression from him. Their bullpen looks to be formidable again this year, even taking into account some natural regression from Aroldis Chapman. Their lineup is really good, and Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Caleb Durbin, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all Gold Glove-caliber fielders. But, this lineup’s ceiling is based on Roman Anthony. He is their best hitter, and will decide how far this team can go in October. If he looks as good as he did in his stint in MLB last year, the sky’s the limit for the Red Sox.
Tampa Bay Rays
Additions: Cedric Mullins, Gavin Lux, Steven Matz, Nick Martinez
Subtractions: Shane Baz, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe
X-Factor: Junior Caminero
Close Prospects: SS Carson Williams, RHP Brody Hopkins, 1B Xavier Isaac
I find it hard to see the Rays being successful this year. Even in a vaccuum, I just don’t see any facet of this team being good enough to compete. The lineup is fine, but shallow. The rotation is interesting, but mainly because it’s the Rays. By the way, Ryan Pepiot just landed on the IL. The bullpen, like the rotation, is interesting, but really only because it’s the Rays. They definitely have talented arms in both the rotation and bullpen, but I’m just not sure if either are deep enough for a 162-game season. Outside of this hypothetical vacuum, they play in the most competitive division in baseball, where all 4 teams got better than them this offseason. Don’t get me wrong, Junior Caminero is very, very good. But, he can only do so much. The Rays’ 1-3 against RHP is still very good (Diaz, Aranda, Caminero), but I just don’t think the rest of the lineup is good enough. But, they are the Rays, so they may shock us all and find a way to competitiveness.
Baltimore Orioles
Additions: Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley
Subtractions: Grayson Rodriguez, Tomoyuki Sugano
X-Factor: Trevor Rogers
Close Prospects: C Samuel Basallo, RHP Trey Gibson
The Orioles were definitely one of the more interesting teams to watch going into this offseason, and then they added Pete Alonso. Despite having a very, very poor 2025 campaign (which led to the firing of their manager), I think the Orioles are poised to compete once again in this division. Their pitching is really the limit. Because of how insane this division is, I’m not sure if I see them finishing higher than 3rd. Trevor Rogers was really good last year, but not for a full season. If he can maintain his performance from 2025, that would go a long way in helping the Orioles surpass expectations. They traded for SP Shane Baz from the Rays, and signed Chris Bassitt to bolster their rotation. Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin round out a solid rotation, but I’m not sure, at least on paper, if it’s better than any the Blue Jays, Yankees, or Red Sox rotations. Their offense, on paper, is almost assuredly as good as anyone’s. Gunnar Henderson looks poised to bounceback to his former MVP-candidate form, and if that happens, this could be an electric offense to watch. Samuel Basallo has looked fantastic in Spring Training, and is coming off signing a long extension with the team. Their bullpen is a little iffy, especially considering their all-world closer Felix Bautista will miss some of the season, but as long as it’s not meaningfully worse than last season’s, it should be fine. I do think they’ll be active at the deadline in acquiring relievers.
Overall, the AL East once again looks to be the most formidable division in baseball, and very well could see three of its teams reach the postseason again.
American League Central
Cleveland Guardians
Additions: Rhys Hoskins, Shawn Armstrong
Subtractions: Lane Thomas
X-Factor: Steven Kwan
Close Prospects: OF Chase DeLauter, RHP Khal Stephen, 2B Travis Bazzana, LHP Parker Messick
I’m going to keep this write-up brief since I know all of you know what the Guardians did this offseason. Jose Ramirez is still one of the best players in baseball. They have a multitude of exciting young players either coming up this season, or looking to continue off an exciting rookie campaign in 2025. Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi, Kyle Manzardo, George Valera, Joey Cantillo. Chase DeLauter has (officially) made the Opening Day roster, and looks to immediately jumpstart what was a, to put it nicely, lackluster offense last year. While Valera will start the year on the IL, the Guardians look to have just enough depth to withstand missing his offensive presence for a little. I really think the ceiling of this team (outside of Jose) comes down to whether Steven Kwan can re-capture his 2024 form. He needs to be an elite table-setter, and needs to be able to play at least an average centerfield. Even outside of what that means to the team, if he can post an OPS around .800 and play a good centerfield, he very well could fetch the Guardians a haul at the deadline. Recent reporting seems to show that the Guardians have not approached Kwan’s team with any serious contract extension outline, and given the Guardians’ track record, Kwan looks to almost inevitably be dealt at the deadline. If he plays well, he’s gone. Depressing to write, but probably true. This team is much better than it was last year, and its Opening Day roster could very well be as good as it’s ever been since 2017. In what again looks to be a wide open division, I wouldn’t count the Guardians out.
Detroit Tigers
Additions: Framber Valdez, Kenley Jansen, Justin Verlander
Subtractions: Chris Paddack
X-Factor: Kevin McGonigle
Close Prospects: SS Kevin McGonigle, OF Max Clark
The Tigers would’ve run away with the division last year had they not suffered one of the most embarrassing collapses in MLB history. They completely fell apart in the second half of the season after lighting the league on fire in the first half. In what is most likely the last full year (or, just as likely, half-year) of Tarik Skubal, the Tigers had an interesting offseason. They went out and signed arguably the best starting pitcher on the market which, if you ask me, all but sounds the death knell for any hopes Tigers fans may have for a Skubal extension. So much of the Tigers’ season rests on how good they can be leading up to the trade deadline. If they are hovering around .500, I could very well see their front office dealing Skubal. They have one of the best farm systems in MLB, and could make it even better. Skubal will be Skubal, if healthy, there’s no debate there. He’s the best pitcher in the American League, and arguably the best pitcher in MLB. The Tigers’ fortunes boil down to how good their offense can be. They made no external additions to the offense, only re-signing Gleyber Torres. But, they’re adding one of the best (if not the best) prospects in baseball to their lineup. If McGonigle is as good as advertised, there is no limit for this Tigers roster. If the Tigers are atop the division at the trade deadline, I highly doubt the Tigers move Skubal. That’s why he’s my X-Factor. Riley Greene is a great hitter, but, at least at present, not good enough to carry this team to a World Series. If McGonigle is as advertised, he can almost certainly do that. A lot of pressure to put on a rookie. Their pitching staff will be better than it was last year — adding Framber Valdez tends to have that effect. This team has the talent to make a run, we’ll see if they do. For a more in-depth look into the Tigers, please read CTC’s own Matt Seese’s article on them here.
Kansas City Royals
Additions: Matt Strahm, Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas
Subtractions: Mike Yaztrezemski, Michael Lorenzen
X-Factor: The other, non-Bobby Witt, 8 hitters in their lineup
Close Prospects: C Carter Jensen
Yes, it is obvious that their offense is the limit to what this team can do. But there really isn’t much else to say. Bobby Witt is the best shortstop in the world, and could very well win MVP this year. Their offense was bad last year. It needs to be better. Their pitching is still very, very good. The offense is the limit. If Maikel Garcia maintains his 2025 form, if Caglianone can make it click, if Carter Jensen is as good as advertised, and if Isaac Collins can maintain some degree of his 2025 self, this team is good. A lot of ifs, I know. Their rotation looks to be very good again, bolstered by (in my opinion) one of the best left-handed starters in baseball in Cole Ragans. Seth Lugo is a question mark, but Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, and Michael Wacha all project to be above-average starters this year. Their bullpen is, well, not great. Their backend depth is good, but nothing else is. Estevez looks to have taken a step back. (To read more about the Royals, feel free to read my own article on them here.) But, this team looks to be competitive this year. Like with the Guardians: in this division, anything can happen.
Minnesota Twins
Additions: Josh Bell, Victor Caratini
Subtractions: Edouard Julien, Christian Vazquez
X-Factor: A healthy Byron Buxton
Close Prospects: OF Walker Jenkins, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, LHP Connor Prielipp
I don’t see it with this team, to be honest with you. But, like I’ve already said, this division is weird. Anything could happen. The Twins have been one of the more interesting teams to watch over the last 12 months, as they spontaneously tore their entire roster down at last year’s deadline. Pablo Lopez will miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. But, deadline additions SP Mick Abel and Taj Bradley could very well bolster the rotation in Lopez’s place. This team is weird. I could see them winning anywhere between 60 and 84 games. Like every American League Central team, the Twins’ fortunes rest on a whole lot of ‘ifs’. If Buxton can stay healthy and maintain his MVP-level play from 2025, if Rodriguez, Keaschall, Abel, and Bradley can all be significant contributors, then this team could be good. I think its more likely they finish in last than make the playoffs, but anything is possible in the AL Central.
Chicago White Sox
Additions: Munetaki Murakami, Austin Hays, Luisangel Acuna, Seranthony Dominguez
Subtractions: Luis Robert Jr., Mike Tauchman
X-Factor: Colson Montgomery
Close Prospects: LHP Noah Schultz
The White Sox seem to be out of the proverbial woods. After a short but excruciating rebuild, they have a roster teeming with exciting young talent. I don’t think this team is a playoff team yet, but they will be soon. They could maybe be a fringe Wild Card contender this season if things click, but there’s too many ifs for me to comfortably project them to be that. Murakami is a question mark, but if he works out this lineup will be very deep. Catcher Kyle Teel will miss the start of the season with a shoulder injury sustained from the World Baseball Classic. However, the rotation, frankly, isn’t very good, and neither is the bullpen. Shane Smith is fine, but there really isn’t anything else to hang your hat on for five-six innings in a given night as Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and Erick Fedde are an underwhelming group of pitchers. The bullpen, if Grant Taylor clicks, could be fine, at least at the back. They added Seranthony Dominguez there, as well. I just don’t think this pitching staff has either the depth nor the top-end talent to make it formidable enough to compete. For more, please read CTC’s Deborah Williams’ preview on the White Sox here.
American League West
Seattle Mariners
Additions: Brendan Donovan
Subtractions: Jorge Polanco, Eugenio Suarez
X-Factor: George Kirby
Close Prospects: SS Colt Emerson
It’s hard to not envision this team repeating as American League West champions in 2026. While they didn’t do much on balance this offseason, no one else in the division really did either. They’re still by far the most talented team in the division, and even if Cal Raleigh doesn’t hit 60 homers again in 2026, they should still — comfortably — win the division. Their offense is good 1-7, and their rotation is good, albeit a little lacking in depth (Bryce Miller will miss the start of the season with an injury from Spring Training). Their most exciting pitching prospects are still in A-ball, and outside of them there really aren’t any guys to get excited about in the upper minors. Because of that, the success of this team really comes down to how healthy their rotation can be. George Kirby is my X-Factor for them. If Kirby is as good as he was in 2024, this team could very easily win it all. The bullpen is still good, as Matt Brash and Andres Munoz are as good of a setup-closer duo as exists in MLB. There’s really not much else to say. This team is really good.
Houston Astros
Additions: Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows
Subtractions: Framber Valdez, Jesus Sanchez, Vic Caratini
X-Factor: A healthy Yordan Alvarez
Close Prospects: N/A
The Astros are weird. Hunter Brown is good, Tatsuya Imai could be good, Mike Burrows could be good, but other than that, nothing to write home about. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. (?) are neither exciting or good. We’ll see how that rotation shapes out. The bullpen is still really good with Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, and Steven Okert leading the way. Josh Hader will, however, miss the start of the season with bicep inflammation. The offense will, with a healthy Yordan, be really good next year, despite Jeremy Pena missing the start of the season on the IL. If Correa bounces back, this offense could be good enough to offset the woes of the rotation. Altuve, Paredes, Alvarez, Correa, Pena is a really good 1-5, and if Walker bounces back, could be one of the deeper lineups in the American League. I don’t think they can win the division (barring some epic collapse or implosion from the Mariners), but they could perhaps make the last Wild Card spot.
Texas Rangers
Additions: Brandon Nimmo, MacKenzie Gore
Subtractions: Merrill Kelly, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia
X-Factor: Healthy Corey Seager
Close Prospects: N/A
The Rangers have one of the loftier ceilings, especially compared to the depths of their floor, in the American League. All of their outcomes come down to how healthy this team can stay. Seager, Langford, Carter, Eovaldi, and DeGrom all have to stay healthy for this team to be good. MacKenzie Gore needs to figure out his 2nd half struggles, and Jack Leiter needs to have a bounceback this season. The bullpen is bad, but like all bullpens, it can relatively easily be fixed at the deadline if necessary. Like I said, high ceiling, low floor. If Langford and Carter reach their prospect status, then this offense could be really good.
Athletics
Additions: Jeff McNeil, Aaron Civale
Subtractions: Sean Newcomb
X-Factor: Pitching
Close Prospects: OF Henry Bolte, RHP Mason Barnett
The Athletics will inevitably be one of the best offenses in MLB, again, this season. Their lineup is loaded. Kurtz, Langeliers, Soderestrom, Rooker, Wilson, Butler, is an insane amalgamation of hitting talent to be on one roster. My problem with them is twofold: their pitching, and the ballpark they play in. Their pitching will probably be bad again, but it certainly doesn’t help that they play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball (though that almost certainly helps their offense as well). I can’t really see this team making the playoffs until they 1) get real starters in their rotation and 2) move to a real ballpark. The ballpark effects them far more than in just the on-field way. It’s hard to attract free agent pitchers when your pitching conditions are understood to be as dangerous as they are. Oh, also, their bullpen is, on paper, horrible. The pitching is the X-Factor for this team, but unless they take some miraculous leap, I can’t see this team making the playoffs.
Los Angeles Angels
Additions: Grayson Rodriguez, Josh Lowe
Subtractions: Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo
X-Factor: Development
Close Prospects: RHP Ryan Johnson, RHP George Klassen
So, the Angels. Their problem this year is the same as it’s been for the last 10 years, and the same problem it’ll be for the next 10 years if there isn’t significant change at the upper echelons of their front office: The Angels cannot sustainably develop players. They’ve basically wasted the entirety of a first ballot Hall of Famer’s career, and tried to waste the entirety of another one’s. Despite some development success with Zach Neto, they’ve largely failed to consistently churn out productive MLB players on either side of the ball. They’re known for rushing prospects long before they’re ready, which you’ll see this year with Ryan Johnson. There isn’t much else to say about them until owner Arte Moreno sells.
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies
Additions: Adolis Garcia, Brad Keller
Subtractions: Ranger Suarez, Harrison Bader, Matt Strahm
X-Factor: Bullpen
Close Prospects: OF Justin Crawford, RHP Andrew Painter, SS Aidan Miller
The Phillies are polarizing, and I’m definitely lower on them then most people. Their core pieces (Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, and Turner) are all on the wrong side of 30. I think that their window of legitimate World Series contention has, at best, one or two years left. Harper is showing signs of regressing, and Wheeler just had a major injury that sidelined him for the entirety of their playoff run last year. Cristopher Sanchez is great, however, and they just extended him. I just don’t see how this team gets better as their core offensive pieces get older. Regardless, their rotation looks to again be among the best in the league when Wheeler returns. Sanchez, Luzardo, and Painter all project to be great frontline starters. Nola and Taijuan Walker are concerning, but one (probably Walker) will go when Wheeler returns. Their bullpen is fine, and I can’t imagine it being worse than it was the last two years. Duran is a fantastic closer, and Keller (assuming they keep him as a reliever) should be great again. Alvarado hopefully doesn’t miss a major portion of the season this year, which will definitely help their bullpen’s fortunes. I have some concerns about the backend, but that’s relatively easily fixed. I don’t necessarily think this team wins the division this year, but they’ll be competitive. And, in a relatively weak National League (outside of the Dodgers), could very easily make the playoffs again.
New York Mets
Additions: Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver
Subtractions: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz
X-Factor: Nolan McLean
Close Prospects: RHP Nolan McLean, OF Carson Benge, RHP Jonah Tong, UTIL Ryan Clifford
The Mets perhaps had the most turnover between last and this season among major contributors, as you can see. It’s interesting to see, as they were certainly good on paper last year, but collapsed in the second half. Barring a repeat of that, the Mets should relatively comfortably win the National League East. The X-Factor, for them, is McLean. If he is as advertised — that is, as an ace — then this team is as good as any. Their rotation was really bad last year, and I can’t imagine it being worse. Peralta, McLean, Holmes, Senga, and Peterson is a fantastic Opening Day rotation, and Jonah Tong offers great depth. Their bullpen is a little iffy, again, but it’s hard to actually view how their bullpen really was last year simply because of how much they had to pitch (3rd most in MLB, 2nd in NL). Devin Williams is an enigma because of what happened to him last year, but I assume he bounces back. Luke Weaver I’m not as high on, but he should still be an average middle-relief contributor. Their offense, though, is a wagon – No question about it. Lindor, Soto, Bichette is a fantastic top 3. If the cards fall their way, the Mets could have one of the 3 best offenses in MLB. Perhaps a change of scenery could finally cause Luis Robert Jr. to return to prior form. This team has an extraordinarily high ceiling, and should win the division.
Miami Marlins
Additions: Pete Fairbanks, Owen Caissie, Chris Paddack
Subtractions: Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers
X-Factor: Sandy Alcantara
Close Prospects: C Joe Mack, 1B Nathan Martorella, LHP Thomas White.
The Marlins are perhaps the best example of what can happen for a franchise when a legitimately amazing front office executive takes the reigns. In merely 3 years, former CTC site user Peter Bendix has turned around the entire Marlins research & development front. He’s gotten ownership to buy in on investments in international training facilities, as well as their own internall spring training & rehab facilities. While the pieces haven’t all fallen into place yet, I can imagine the Marlins are not far away from being perennial contenders in their division. If you couldn’t tell, I’m a big fan of Bendix’s. To the team: I’m not sold on them making the playoffs this year. Trading away a standout starter in Edward Cabrera and a breakout candidate in Ryan Weathers was definitely interesting given their rotation’s weaknesses last year. But, they’ll get a full year of Eury Perez, and with bouncebacks from Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara, their rotation could very well be good this year. Oh, they also have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in Thomas White lurking in AAA. He projects to be a legitimate ace, and his contributions to this rotation should ensure that it’s better than last year’s iteration. To Sandy. With Alcantara, a bounceback season from him is crucial to the Marlins’ long-term plans. He’s on the last year of his contract, with a 2027 club option after. Him pitching well would mean the Marlins could finally get the return for him they were hoping for last year. The bullpen is iffy, especially now with breakout reliever Ronny Henriquez missing the entire year with Tommy John surgery. But, a backend of Fairbanks and Calvin Faucher should be good enough for a rebuilding team. If everything falls into place, they could be a sneaky Wild Card candidate, but I’m not yet sold on their pitching. With their offense, there are too many question marks to comfortably project it, but, theoretically, it should be around average. Xavier Edwards, Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez, and Owen Caissie should all be major contributors this year, and All-Star Kyle Stowers when he returns from injury.. I’m not sure if they’re there yet, but the Marlins should start to turn the corner this season.
Atlanta Braves
Additions: Ha-Seong Kim, Mike Yastrzemski, Robert Suarez
Subtractions: Marcell Ozuna, Jurickson Profar (due to PEDs)
X-Factor: Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez
Close Prospects: RHP Didier Fuentes, RHP J.R. Ritchie
The Braves lineup should be much better than last year’s, barring injury. So much so that I would’ve considered them among the best teams in baseball. However, multiple injuries sidelining core pieces in their rotation (Strider, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, Wentz), and a complete lack of urgency from their front office to address this rotation (even prior to Strider & Schwellenbach’s injuries) has led their rotation to being in a pretty bad spot. They’re relying on consistency from Chris Sale, who notoriously hasn’t been able to stay healthy since the Red Sox World Series in 2018, and Reynaldo Lopez, who will be in his second year as a starter and coming off Tommy John surgery. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder are fine, but not in the middle of your rotation. Didier Fuentes (who made the Opening Day roster), is starting in the Braves’ bullpen, with what I assume will inevitably be a temporary move. On the offensive side, they just lost Jurickson Profar to a PED suspension, and Sean Murphy will miss the start of the year with a hip injury. If their core pieces on offense stay healthy (Acuna, Baldwin, Olson, Riley), this offense could legitimately be among the best in MLB, but I’m just not sure that it’ll matter with the weaknesses in their pitching staff. Relying on 37 year old Chris Sale to carry your rotation throughout the season is, well, bad. Signing Robert Suarez to fortify the back of your bullpen because of a declining Raisel Iglesias, was a fine move. The problem is that their rotation isn’t good enough to really compete this year. I understand that foreseeing injuries to TWO core starters and a backend depth option in Spring Training is hard, but you already knew Smith-Shawver would miss the first few months of the year, and the Braves did nothing to address their lack of starting pitching depth. This team could be good if they get their injured pitchers back early enough to make a difference, I’m just not willing to bet on them both coming back early and performing well immediately. The Braves have an extremely small margin for error if they want to compete this year, and that issue falls squarely at the feet of their front office.
Washington Nationals
Additions: Foster Griffin, Zack Littell, Harry Ford
Subtractions: MacKenzie Gore, Josh Bell
X-Factor: Paul Toboni
Close Prospects: N/A
The Nationals. It’s hard to understate just how badly the post-2019 Rizzo tenure was for the Nationals. Rizzo, if you didn’t know, was the Nationals POBO until midseason last year. While he made out well in the Soto trade (Wood, Abrams, maybe Gore), he butchered the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade, and botched the development of top draft pick Dylan Crews. The Nationals’ future is really hard to project because of how badly Rizzo messed with their farm system, so I have their X-Factor as their new POBO, Paul Toboni. If he can fix the issues with Dylan Crews, and revamp their farm system, they could be good in the future. For now, they will not be competitive, and will be among the league’s worst teams this year. Their rotation is bad, and their bullpen will inevitably be one of the worst in MLB this year. Their pitching staff at-large could easily rank in the bottom 3 at the end of the season. The lineup is not great, but James Wood and CJ Abrams are bright spots. I assume Abrams will be traded at this year’s deadline, but I can’t say for sure. Wood could be a bonafide superstar, but he’ll have to sustain his success last year in the first half over a full season. (For reference, he had a 150 wRC+ in the 1st half, and a 93 in the 2nd)
National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers
Additions: Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Luis Rengifo
Subtractions: Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins
X-Factor: The rotation
Close Prospects: RHP Brandon Sproat, INF/OF Jett Williams, C Jeferson Quero
At the end of almost every season, it seems we all ask ourselves, “How did the Brewers do it this time?”. (Sound familiar, Guardians’ fans?). I assume we’ll be asking that exact same question in September of 2026. I’m not high on the Brewers, but I also understand that they manage to do things that I simply cannot understand. Similar to the Guardians in that respect. Dealing Freddy Peralta was understandable, especially as a fan of a small market team, but they didn’t really do anything to address their rotation outside of that. As of now, per Fangraphs, their rotation is as follows: Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Woodruff. I have no idea how that rotation will find a way to be successful, but I’m almost certain it will. If the Brewers figure out their rotation, you can pretty comfortably slot them in atop the National League Central come October 1. Their offense is still really good, with Chourio, Turang, Contreras, and Yelich at the top of their order. The rest is iffy, but, like I keep saying, it’s the Brewers. They’ll find a way, they always seem to find a way.
Chicago Cubs
Additions: Alex Bregman, Edward Cabrera, Hunter Harvey
Subtractions: Kyle Tucker, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro
X-Factor: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Close Prospects: OF Kevin Alcantara, C Moises Ballesteros, RHP Jaxon Wiggins
The Cubs rode a pair of breakouts all the way to the postseason (for the first time in 5 years) last year, and seem poised to make it back to October this year. They fortified their rotation through the addition of Edward Cabrera, and hope a full season of Cade Horton can look as good as what they saw from Horton last year. The depth is a little shaky, but getting Justin Steele back around midseason should help. They also have decent depth at AAA, headlined by top Cubs prospect Jaxon Wiggins. The offense, despite losing Tucker, should still be great this year. Busch, Bregman, Happ, Hoerner is a pretty good top 4, and if PCA can take another leap on offense (which would make him an MVP candidate), then this team will be very good. They play great defense, and they destroy the cover off the baseball. My main concern is the bullpen, but if the breakout they got from Daniel Palencia (World Baseball Classic hero for champion Venezuela) last year is real, then it should be fine. They, like the Royals, are a prime candidate to buy big on relievers at the deadline.
Cincinnati Reds
Additions: Eugenio Suarez
Subtractions: Nick Martinez, Gavin Lux, Zack Littell, Miguel Andujar
X-Factor: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Close Prospects: INF Sal Stewart, RHP Rhett Lowder
In the rotatation for an enigmatic Reds’ team, I’m not sold on Brady Singer, but I think Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Burns should be enough. Unfortunately, Hunter Greene is out til, at least, midseason with bone spurs. Nick Lodolo got hurt over the weekend, and will start the year on the IL. Their bullpen is fine, and the backend is good. Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagan (despite what the Guardians have done to him in the past) are good pitchers. Their offense should be around average this year with the additions of Stewart and Suarez to their lineup. So, let me explain my X-Factor. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a good hitter, consistently, once over close to a full season. He’s one of, if not the, best defenders at 3rd in MLB. If he can finally have a decent offensive showing, that makes this Reds team look entirely different. Their pitching is good enough to get them close to the postseason, but not on its own. The offense has to be better than it was last year for them to make it back, which I think it will.
St. Louis Cardinals
Additions: Dustin May, Ramon Urias
Subtractions: Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado
X-Factor: JJ Wetherholt
Close Prospects: SS JJ Wetherholt
The Cardinals are, well, not good. They are not going to be good next year. Their rotation isn’t great, and while their bullpen is fine, it’s not nearly good enough to carry the pitching staff. Not to mention their offense isn’t very good either. Hard to lose 2 major contributors on offense in Donovan and Contreras while losing arguably your best defender in Arenado. But, if Wetherholt breaks out, I could see a world in which the offense is competitive enough to bring this team to the mid-70s in wins. Masyn Winn is still an electric player to watch, but the failure of former top prospect Jordan Walker has hurt the Cardinals current roster. They still have one of the best farm systems in baseball, but that won’t show at the Major League level for another couple of years.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Additions: Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna
Subtractions: Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Andrew McCutchen
X-Factor: Offseason additions
Close Prospects: SS Konnor Griffin, RHP Bubba Chandler
Perhaps the most exciting team to watch this offseason was the Pirates – a shocking thing to say. In addition to their myriad of moves this offseason, they also sport two of the best prospects in baseball on either side of the baseball. Konnor Griffin is, by most accounts, the best prospect in the sport, and Bubba Chandler is arguably one of the 5 best pitching prospects. It is indeed admirable how aggressive the Pirates were this offseason, trying to capitalize on their window while Paul Skenes is still cheap and under team control. Their bullpen is a little shaky, but Dennis Santana is among the league’s best closers. The Pirates have gotten surprisingly good at pitching development, so we’ll see if they can figure out the bullpen. Any rotation with Paul Skenes at the top is a good rotation, but this one features multiple good pitchers. Mlodzinski is good, Ashcraft is good, and Bubba Chandler could well finish in the top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting if all goes well. Unfortunately, Jared Jones is on the IL to start the season, but should be back at some point midseason. The Pirates are well-poised to break their decade-long postseason drought.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Additions: Kyle Tucker, Edwin Diaz
Subtractions: Kirby Yates
X-Factor: Tanner Scott
Close Prospects: OF Josue DePaula, OF Zyhir Hope, INF Alex Freeland
Yes, obviously the Dodgers’ actual X-Factor is Shohei Ohtani. If he pitches well, and keeps being one of the best hitters in baseball, this roster is the best. You could argue that even without Ohtani hitting, or without Ohtani pitching, that this team is still the best in baseball. But that’s boring. So, I went with Tanner Scott. He was awful last year. The Dodgers tried to tweak his approach to get him to throw more strikes, and it backfired horribly. He was a big part of the reason that their bullpen was so bad all year long. Adding Edwin Diaz should help with that – a lot. Their rotation will once again be among the best in the league, despite Roki Sasaki’s best efforts. Inevitably, Tyler Glasnow will miss some time. But, when you get a full season of Ohtani pitching, along with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell (who is currently on the IL, and projected to be back around June), you get a great rotation. The only thing that could hold this team back is the continued age regression of Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez. Mookie Betts’ season was concerning, but he lost a lot of weight from a sickness around the start of last season, so, for now, I’m not that worried about him. This roster is, top to bottom, the best in baseball. Not much else to say. It’d be a disappointment, barring injury, for the Dodgers not to make it back to the World Series… at least for Dodgers fans.
San Diego Padres
Additions: Sung-Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, Griffin Canning
Subtractions: Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn, Robert Suarez
X-Factor: Nick Pivetta and Michael King
Close Prospects: N/A
The Padres are in a conundrum. Their GM just traded their top prospect for Mason Miller, but let multiple key pieces to their success walk. Their offense should be good this year, but their rotation is bad. Outside of Pivetta and King, there aren’t any even average pitchers. Their bullpen will inevitably end up as one of the best in the league, but their rotation just isn’t that good. They need Pivetta to stay as good as he was last year, and for King to regain his 2024 form. If even one of those things doesn’t happen, I can’t see this team making the playoffs. The Padres’ front office is the most aggressive in baseball, so anything’s possible, I just don’t see it right now.
San Francisco Giants
Additions: Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader, Tyler Mahle
Subtractions: Justin Verlander
X-Factor: 2025 additions (Rafael Devers and Willy Adames)
Close Prospects: 1B Bryce Eldrige, LHP Carson Whisenhunt
The Giants, barring some collapse, should make the postseason this year. Hard to envision a world in which both Devers and Adames don’t bounce back after relatively disappointing 2025 campaigns. Their offense ranked 22nd in OPS last year, and I can’t see that happening again. Their rotation was also bad, ranking 17th in ERA. Logan Webb is still amazing, and Mahle should be a good contributor. Robbie Ray and Adrian Houser are question marks. The bullpen isn’t that good, at least on paper, but their offense and top-end starting pitching should be enough to bring them to the postseason, if not very close.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Additions: Merrill Kelly, Nolan Arenado
Subtractions: Jake McCarthy
X-Factor: Pitching
Close Prospects: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, 2B/OF Tommy Troy
The Diamondbacks, last year, ranked top 5 in OPS and 22nd in ERA. They also have overseen quite a bit of turnover between the trade deadline and free agency. They’ve changed almost top-to-bottom the names on their pitching coaching staff. Their offense should again be good, although probably not as good as it was last year. Replacing Josh Naylor with Carlos Santana (Deja Vu, anyone?) and Eugenio Suarez with Nolan Arenado is probably not a great recipe for success. But, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo are all still great hitters. Any success they may have this year will be defined by their pitching. Their rotation, right now, projects to be one of the worst in the league. Their bullpen, which currently features Paul Sewald as closer, with no left-handed pitchers, also projects to be one of the worst. They’ll maybe get Corbin Burnes back at some point, but it’d probably be closer to late August/early September. This team probably isn’t going to make the playoffs, but they’ll be fun bad. Good offense, bad pitching – silver linings for Diamondbacks fans.
Colorado Rockies
Additions: Jose Quintana, Willi Castro, Michael Lorenzen, Jake McCarthy
Subtractions: German Marquez
X-Factor: Paul DePodesta
Close Prospects: N/A
The Rockies. This is going to be short, because there isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about them. Their front office has, historically, been among the worst in baseball, and consistently is found to be years behind every even average front office in research & development. So, naturally, you hire Paul DePodesta, who hasn’t worked in baseball in a decade. Maybe it works, but his rumored dependence on sabermetrics doesn’t seem like it’ll bold well with an owner who infamously abhors advanced statistics. Maybe DePodesta will be the one to figure out the ‘Rockies problem’, regardless, he holds the keys to whatever happens in the Rockies’ future. They don’t have that great of a farm system, and they have one of the worst rosters in MLB. They also happen to play in the hardest park to pitch in in MLB.
What do you think – which of these teams have I overrated? Underrated? Overlooked? Let me know in the comments below.
