It’s just past noon here at the desk, the post breakfast Häagen-Dazs Coffee Almond Toffee is open. As unhealthy as that may seem, my only defense is that I am juggling quite a bit right now and sometimes ice cream is the only thing that sounds like it might turn the day sweet for a moment. The only other notion that feels sweet is helping you make some money tonight.
Out late on the west coast tonight, the Dallas Mavericks (23-50) are in Portland as they prepare to square off with the Trail Blazers
(37-37) in a game that means very different things to each team. Portland just clinched a play-in spot and is playing its best basketball of the season—23-17 since January 1, riding a two-game win streak, and hungry to nudge above .500 for the first time since November. Dallas is on a five-game skid but has been far more competitive than that sounds, dropping two overtime games before getting clawed back in Denver. Cooper Flagg had 26 Wednesday. The Mavericks are not mailing it in. If one thing is clear by now, these Mavs are trying to win every game, tanking is incidental.
Let’s scan the lines in search of value.
🏀 Fixture: Dallas Mavericks (23-50) @ Portland Trail Blazers (37-37) 📍 Moda Center — Portland, OR 🕙 9:00 PM CST, Friday, March 27, 2026 📺 NBA TV / KFAA Channel 29 / MavsTV
📊 DraftKings Snapshot (as of 12:04 PM CST) Spread: POR -10.5 (-110) | DAL +10.5 (-110) Total: 239.5 (O -110 / U -110) Moneyline: POR -470 | DAL +360
📉 Game Side Lean: Portland -10.5
Portland is the better team, playing at home, with something to play for. Dallas is without Gafford—a fresh shoulder injury that matters against a Portland frontcourt built around Donovan Clingan eating offensive rebounds for breakfast. Clingan is the league leader in offensive boards (Steven Adams lacks the games played to qualify) and has been expanding his game with real three-point range this season. Without Gafford anchoring the paint, Portland will feast inside and the Mavericks’ already thin frontcourt gets stretched further. The Blazers handle business at home. Lay the points.
🔮 Total Lean: Over 239.5
Portland is a team that plays fast, shoots constantly, and crashes the glass for second-chance points. Five rotation players take more than six threes a game, and they rank top-five in possessions and field goal attempts. Dallas scores in bunches too when the offense is clicking—Flagg, Marshall, and a five-game losing streak’s worth of pent-up aggression. Neither defense is going to save anyone tonight. Points are coming.
🎯 Player Props We Like
Cooper Flagg Over 22.5 Points (-116) Flagg had 26 on Wednesday in Denver and has been the engine of everything Dallas does offensively. Portland’s defense is not its calling card—they rank 29th in three-point percentage allowed, which tells you they’re giving up looks liberally. Flagg is locked in and this team runs through him when things get going. The number is reasonable and the matchup is favorable.
Jrue Holiday Under 15.5 Points (-123) Holiday is a glue guy on a team with plenty of other scoring options—Avdija, Clingan, Camara, Grant, Henderson. Portland doesn’t need him to carry the offense, and against a Dallas team in scramble mode, his value will show up in the assist column and on the defensive end rather than the scoring sheet. The juice is a little steep but the logic is clean.
💡 Summary: Portland -10.5 at home with everything to play for. Over 239.5 because neither team came to play defense. Flagg doing Flagg things, Holiday staying in his lane. Four picks, and if we win one more bowl of Coffee Almond Toffee. Let’s go Mavs.
