And here we go. After the Michigan Wolverines’ narrow win over Nebraska on Tuesday, no one is left undefeated in the Big Ten. Kenpom projects the conference winner to have four losses, but any of the contenders could go on a run and sneak ahead of the rest of the group. Friday’s battle in East Lansing might go a long way towards making the difference at the end of the year.
The Michigan State Spartans have garnered less publicity than some of the other programs at the top of the standings, but come
into this contest in the top-10 of the AP Poll and the Kenpom rankings. The latter projects this rivalry game to be a coinflip, which is exactly what fans of the sport should want when these teams meet. I would guess that most Michigan fans feel well under 50% confident about this one, though.
No. 3 Michigan (19-1, 9-1) at No. 7 Michigan State (19-2, 9-1)
Date & Time: Friday, Jan. 30, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
TV/Streaming: FOX
Michigan has lost each of the last four games in this rivalry after splitting home and home the previous four seasons. To find a Wolverine win at the Breslin Center, it requires going back to the 2017-18 campaign where John Beilein authored a 10-point upset of the No. 4 Spartans behind 27 points from Mo Wagner. No way to sugarcoat it: this is not a good venue for Michigan, but all streaks have to end sometime.
Two Stats to Watch
Rebounding
Like any Tom Izzo group, State is once again excellent at rebounding. The Spartans are first in the entire country in defensive rebounding, which provides a good battle with the Wolverines, who are grabbing the third-most offensive rebounds in conference play. This is going to be an extremely physical game that often features questionable refereeing, so it will be interesting to see how Dusty May prioritizes the offensive glass.
The other end of the floor is where it gets really spicy, however. State is sixth nationally in offensive rebounding, which is huge for a team that is not exactly shooting the lights out. The Spartans do generate assists on over 60% of their baskets, and letting long rebounds lead to second-chance points is always one of the most frustrating parts of this rivalry.
Michigan has been average at cleaning up the defensive glass. Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State grabbed way too many rebounds for comfort, but Wisconsin, Indiana, and Nebraska were held in check. There are some clear physicality differences between those two groups of schools, which does not inspire a lot of confidence heading into Friday, but expect rebounding — especially on defense — to be at the very top of the gameplan.
Turnovers
It is quite fascinating to see how alike these rivals are in the turnover department. Both are below average taking care of the ball, with State actually sitting dead last in Big Ten play at over 20%, while both are able to generate takeaways at an above-average rate to help mitigate the sloppiness on offense. In a game where margins expect to be tight, this could end up the difference.
It should be noted that the Spartans have been much better taking care of the ball over the last four games (albeit against modest competition) while Michigan is coming off a disaster against Nebraska (26.6%) and some questionable games ahead of that. Meanwhile, takeaways have not been a huge decider for either team in recent games, especially with the Scarlet Knights committing just five turnovers on Tuesday.
This factor could go either way on either end of the floor. From a Michigan perspective, the encouragement should come from the steal department. While the Wolverines have been allowing too many steals, the Spartans do not cause a ton of steals on defense. Conversely, Michigan does have an above-average defensive steal level, while State offers them up at an elevated rate (second-highest in the conference). A couple timely takeaways could be what the Wolverines need to claim this titanic win.
