After our hot streak ended in Week 8, we have gone cold, going 2-4 the last two weeks after another 1-2 week. It’s time to get back on track! Here’s another week of our Mountain West best bets
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Matt’s record: 17-14, +1.1 units
Air Force +3.5 v. Army (-120):
Skinny: There is a lot at stake ahead of the second leg of this year’s Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
With Air Force’s 14-9 victory over Navy earlier this year, they can seal it with a win over Army for just the second time since 2016.
If Army wins, all they need to do is beat Navy in the infamous Army-Navy game on Dec. 12.
As an army brat, I would be inclined to side with the Black Knights. But I can’t — and won’t — in this situation. Both offenses have been outstanding this season, as Army and Air Force rank No. 10 and No. 34 in EPA/play and No. 1 and 4 in EPA/play rush, respectively. But the worst unit on the field will be Army’s defense. They own the third-worst defensive EPA/play and allow the ninth-most yards per play in Division-I. They are especially vulnerable on the ground, ranking among the bottom-15 in yards per carry allowed with the 90th-best success rate allowed against the rush.
Air Force’s defense isn’t what I would call sturdy, either. But I feel slightly more confident in them. Give me the hook.
Air Force/Army u45.5 (-110):
Skinny: Normally, we don’t double dip. But, as always, this is an auto play. It worked for Air Force/Navy, and I think it will for Army/Air Force, despite my aforementioned concerns about each defense. Two clock eating triple option rushing attacks?! Hello, under!
Nevada u13.5 TT v. New Mexico (-115):
Skinny: For most kids, Halloween begins around dusk. For Nevada, it began a few hours earlier, with Luke Duncan gifting three consecutive interceptions to UCLA on their first three drives last week like it was a Christmas morning. Duncan was seeing ghosts — and a lot of UCLA defenders — in the Wolf Pack’s 27-0 loss. Nevada turned it over four times, as they now sport a nation’s worst minus-13 turnover margin for the season, three worse than any other team.
Do you want to know the lone team better than UCLA? New Mexico! They are atop the country in success rate allowed and scoring defense, No. 4 in total defense, No. 5 in rush defense and No. 26 in EPA/play allowed. In frigid Reno temperatures, I don’t think Nevada will be able to score — regardless of who’s behind center with Duncan or AJ Bianco.
