Computers are objective, uncaring, inanimate objects using input and variable to spit out output, stats, and projections. The Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) system devised by Baseball Prospectus doesn’t “hate” any team. It does not care.
And yet, despite being named for former Royals infielder Bill Pecota, the model has seemed to underestimate the Royals with some frequency. The Royals outperformed PECOTA eight years in a row, including by 23 wins when they won
a title in 2015, and by 15 wins when they reached the playoffs in 2024.
But what is this? PECOTA actually looks upon the Royals….favorably? In this year’s 2026 projected PECOTA standings based on current rosters, the Royals come out on top in the Central Division. Now, this is damning with faint praise – they’re still projected to win just 84 games, but that is a slight edge over the Tigers. PECOTA gives the Royals a 42.1 percent chance of winning the division, compared to 37.9 percent for the Tigers, 9.6 percent for the Twins, and curiously 6.5 percent for the Guardians.
Projection systems do have a tendency to flatten out – most teams are between 75-85 wins. But there are some outliers. The Dodgers project to win 105 games with a 99.1 percent chance of winning the division and a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Rockies project to be the worst team with just 60 wins. The top American League team is the Mariners with 93 projected wins, while PECOTA projects every American League East team to finish with 80 wins or more.
Last year, PECOTA projected the Royals to win 81 games and they won…82. This year, are you taking the over or under on 84 wins for the Royals?
