Before every Ohio State football game, Matt Tamanini will get you ready with all of the information that you need for that day’s game on the “Land-Grant Tailgate” podcast.
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No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5) vs. Penn State | over/under 44.5
Game Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 1 at 12 noon ET
Location:
TV: Fox
Radio: 97.1 FM/1460 AM
I believe that two things can be true at the same time: the Penn State Nittany Lions can be better than their record suggests, but they can also be nowhere near as good as we were led to believe before the season.
I have little doubt that the Nittany Lions will come into Ohio Stadium today and give a game effort, but there is no matchup in this contest that I believe favors the visitors.
So, the only way for the Nits to have a chance in this game is to break tendencies and throw things at the superior Buckeyes that they are not prepared for. While I don’t believe that units coached by Ryan Day, Brian Hartline, and Matt Patricia will ever be taken completely off guard, that is likely the only path to victory for Penn State.
So, in Ethan Grunkmeyer’s second career start, and with both teams coming off a bye, I anticipate Penn State relying far more heavily on the passing game than they have to this point in the season. Interim head coach Terry Smith – a former PSU receiver – has discussed his desire to push the ball downfield in recent weeks. While I don’t believe that testing Ohio State’s secondary is a recipe for success, I think that we will see them take shots in this game, as unsuccessful as they might be.
On the other side of the ball, no defensive coordinator in the country knows Ryan Day’s offense as well as Jim Knowles does – and the same is true in reverse, as no one knows Knowles’ defense like Day and Hartline do. So, with two weeks to prepare, I imagine that Knowles will have schemed up things that look fairly different from what his unit has put on tape all season. I would imagine that would come in the form of more exotic pressures and coverages, because Knowles knows that allowing Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to get into one-on-one matchups is a surefire way to get burned.
Ultimately, I don’t think it matters because I get the sneaking suspicion that Ryan Day and company have used the off week to tinker as well. I believe that the more RPO/pass-friendly offense that we saw two weeks ago against Wisconsin will be the blueprint moving forward.
Julian Sayin has been about as perfect as you could hope for from a first-time starting quarterback, and I believe that he will have another standout day, as he continues to stake his claim to the Heisman Trophy, which captain and wide receiver Brandon Inniss essentially guaranteed he would win this week.
As I mentioned earlier, Penn State is only allowing 145 yards through the air per game, but I believe that Sayin will more than double that, going for 315 yards and three passing touchdowns, while adding 35 yards on the ground.
The Penn State defense has struggled against the run this season, and while I do believe that Day and Hartline will begin leaning more heavily on the air attack, they will want to take this opportunity to get some momentum on the ground, so I look for Bo Jackson to have a career high 125 yards on the ground.
On defense, the Silver Bullets will once again refuse to give up a touchdown, shaking off a little early rust to allow a field goal, but otherwise dominating a hapless Penn State attack.
Matt’s Predictions: Ohio State 38, Penn State 6
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