Here we are, the last series of the regular season.
The Brewers, at 99 wins entering Thursday night’s series finale in Philadelphia, have four more chances to reach the 100-win threshold for the first time in franchise history. Their magic number for the No. 1 overall seed also sits at 2, meaning they need some combination of two wins and Dodgers’ losses to lock it up over these next few days. On the other side, the Cardinals, at 77-81, got off to a strong start despite low expectations entering the season.
They’ve cooled off considerably over the last few months and now look like they’ll finish just below .500 but still ahead of the “Why aren’t we the Brewers” Reds at the bottom of the NL Central.
On the injury front, the Brewers are without relievers Grant Anderson and Bryse Wilson (both could be activated for Thursday’s series finale in Philadelphia), as well as Brian Fitzpatrick and Angel Zerpa (both out for season). Starters Quinn Priester (out for season) and Brandon Woodruff (slim chance of returning in the postseason) are also out.
St. Louis is without position players Blaze Jordan, Joshua Báez, and Everson Pereira. Pereira is the only player we could see this weekend, as he was on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis entering their postseason series this week. Pitchers Hunter Dobbins and Max Rajcic are also done for the year.
Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, and Brice Turang have anchored Milwaukee’s well-rounded offense this season, and all three of them are now at 20-plus homers. William Contreras has an outside chance at hitting the 20-homer threshold, sitting at 18 with four games to go. Garrett Mitchell, Andrew Vaughn, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, Christian Yelich, and Joey Ortiz are the other regulars, with Sal Frelick, Gary Sánchez, and David Hamilton the first players off the bench. Bo Naylor has effectively served as the emergency catcher/travel day backstop since rosters expanded earlier this month. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .257/.339/.402 (.741 OPS ranks fourth), with 151 homers (tied for 28th), 810 runs scored (second), and 159 steals (fifth).
The Cardinals are led by Jordan Walker, who is wrapping up what will likely be a top five MVP finish as he’s hitting .273/.330/.470 with 28 homers, 100 RBIs, 94 runs scored, and 21 steals this season. Alec Burleson has added 23 homers and an MLB-best 112 RBIs, while Iván Herrera, Rookie of the Year candidate JJ Wetherholt, and Nathan Church also have double-digit homers. José Fermín, Leo Bernal, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, and Bryan Torres are also in the regular mix, with Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese, César Prieto, and Pedro Pagés rounding things out. As a team, the Cardinals are hitting .241/.315/.380 (.695 OPS ranks 26th), with 161 homers (25th), 709 runs scored (tied for 12th), and 99 steals (17th).
Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe have the late innings on lock for Milwaukee’s bullpen, while Aaron Ashby, Chad Patrick, and DL Hall have all taken on high-leverage roles. Deadline acquisitions Antonio Senzatela and JoJo Romero (a long-time Cardinal) have had their ups and downs, while Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison have both moved to the bullpen here late in the season. Lyon Richardson is the latest piece, replacing Colton Gordon after his long relief outing on Tuesday night. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.53 team ERA (second), including a 3.64 starter ERA (fifth) and a 3.40 bullpen ERA (third). They’ve struck out 1,503 batters (second) over 1,410 2/3 innings.
All-Star Riley O’Brien has 38 saves this season, but he’s also blown eight saves and has a 4.08 ERA. Justin Bruihl (3.69 ERA over 75 2/3 IP), George Soriano (4.23 ERA over 66 IP), and Ryne Stanek (4.09 ERA over 61 2/3 IP) are the other anchors for the bullpen. Gordon Graceffo (2.76 ERA over 78 1/3 IP) has been one of the best arms for St. Louis, and rookie Luis Gastelum (4.29 ERA over 35 2/3 IP) has also been solid. Cade Winquest (4.63 ERA over 11 2/3 IP), Cooper Hjerpe (6.00 ERA over 9 IP), and Brycen Mautz (6.92 ERA over 13 IP) round things out. As a staff, the Cardinals have a 4.26 team ERA (21st), including a 4.10 starter ERA (11th) and a 4.50 bullpen ERA (24th). They’ve struck out 1,248 batters (25th) over 1,410 2/3 innings.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, September 25 @ 6:40 p.m.: LHP Robert Gasser (5-5, 4.01 ERA, 4.32 FIP) vs. RHP Michael McGreevy (7-9, 3.84 ERA, 4.24 FIP)
Gasser has been a solid arm for the Brewers this season, particularly over the last couple of months, and he seems in line to be in the rotation for the postseason. He’s coming off arguably the best start of his young career, as he went seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Orioles, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out a pair. The left-hander has now allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five outings, lowering his season ERA from 4.79 to 4.01. Gasser has made three career starts against St. Louis, going 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 16 2/3 innings. That includes a win in St. Louis back in July, when he went 7 2/3 innings, allowing two runs and striking out four.
McGreevy, 26, has turned in a solid season, making 30 starts with a 3.84 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and 113 strikeouts over 164 innings. He went four innings in his last appearance, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out one in an extra-innings loss to the Nationals. McGreevy’s two career appearances against Milwaukee both came this year, and he’s 1-1 with six runs allowed and 12 strikeouts across 10 1/3 innings.
Saturday, September 26 @ 6:10 p.m.: RHP Dustin May (7-9, 4.67 ERA, 3.59 FIP) vs. LHP Quinn Mathews (2-3, 3.65 ERA, 3.80 FIP)
May, who started the season with the Cardinals and made 21 starts for them, was acquired by the Brewers alongside JoJo Romero at the trade deadline. He’s had an up-and-down tenure with Milwaukee, going 2-2 with a 5.61 ERA, 5.06 FIP, and 33 strikeouts over 33 2/3 innings. Despite those numbers, there are a few strong starts in there, including six scoreless against the Reds just two weeks ago. This is May’s first time facing the Cardinals since he was a Dodger back in 2023. He’s made two career starts against St. Louis, going 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 11 strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings.
Mathews, 25, is a rookie who was called up right around the trade deadline. He’s made eight starts for St. Louis, going 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 3.80 FIP, and 39 strikeouts across 44 1/3 innings. He went seven solid frames against the Nationals in his last appearance, allowing three runs and striking out three. This marks his first career appearance against Milwaukee.
Sunday, September 27 @ 2:10 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (15-5, 1.86 ERA, 2.16 FIP) vs. RHP Andre Pallante (12-8, 3.61 ERA, 3.71 FIP)
Misiorowski has all but locked up his NL Cy Young candidacy, and Sunday will just be a tune-up outing for him ahead of the postseason. Across 169 1/3 innings this year, Miz is 15-5 with a 1.86 ERA, 2.16 FIP, and 247 strikeouts, leading the majors in all three of those stats. He went three scoreless in an intentionally shortened start against the Orioles on Sunday night, allowing one hit and no walks while striking out four on 44 pitches. Miz has made five starts against St. Louis, going 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings. That includes two starts this year, going 2-0 with four runs allowed over 14 innings, striking out 23.
Another familiar foe, Pallante, 28, is in his fifth season with St. Louis and third as a full-time starter. This has been his best year as a starter yet, pitching to a 12-8 record with a 3.61 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 106 strikeouts across 157 innings. The right-hander took a tough luck loss in his last outing, allowing one run and striking out two over six innings as the Cardinals lost 2-0 to the Pirates. Pallante has made 17 career appearances (five starts) against Milwaukee, with a 6.07 ERA and 24 strikeouts across 43 innings. That includes a pair of losses this season, as he’s totaled 11 innings with 11 runs allowed and five strikeouts.
How to Watch & Listen
Friday, September 25: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Saturday, September 26: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Sunday, September 27: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Prediction
Neither of these two teams should have much to play for this weekend, but I can’t imagine Pat Murphy will let his team let up on the gas as they approach the postseason. Give me the Brewers to win two of three as the squad looks to turn things up a notch before next weekend.
