Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the Miami Hurricanes are 7-2, 3-2 in the ACC and looking to close the year strong to get to 10-2.
Last week, I explored all the help Miami needed to
make the College Football Playoffs. Surprisingly, Miami got several pieces of that help immediately, with losses by Duke, Louisville, and Virginia helping to open the door for Miami to make the CFP. There’s still more help needed, so check out that piece for further results to root for.
After being ranked 15th in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night, the Miami Hurricanes can dream of an at-large berth in the bracket with ease. Well, not “ease” because the Canes have proven they can lose games this year, but you get what I’m saying.
While we were reacting to the CFP standings, plenty of people hit my mentions with the same question: what will it take for Miami to make the ACC Championship game. And after a quick perusal of the situation, the short answer is “a lot.” A WHOLE lot.
The short explanation
Before we get into the weeds of the scenarios that could end up with Miami in the ACC Championship Game, let me give you the Cliff’s Notes version.
To make it to the ACC Championship Game, Miami needs a specific set of results that leaves many teams, themselves included, in a group tied at 6-2 in the league this year. With certain results, Miami would have the tiebreaker over those teams, and make it to the ACCCG, likely as the #2 seed, but there’s also a scenario where Miami is the #1 seed (though that one is HIGHLY unlikely).
Duke or Virginia could be 7-1 and cruise through (not both since they play each other this week). Miami just can’t have multiple teams (Duke/Virginia AND SMU, for example) end up 7-1 in conference. And, they need certain things to break so the Canes would be at the top of the 6-2 group as well.
Got it? Good.
ACC Standings
The present ACC standings are as follows:
- Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU, and Virginia at 5-1 in the league
- Duke at 4-1 in the league
Louisville at 4-2 in the leagueLouisville is 4-3 in the league after losing to Clemson on Friday night so they’re out.- Miami at 3-2 in the league
- Then the rest, who really don’t figure into this conversation from a current-standings standpoint
To get to the ACC Championship game, Miami is looking for a 6-2 conference record for the year, and tiebreakers over others with the same record. They will need plenty of help from teams in front of them losing to get in a position to win tiebreakers at 6-2, but it’s possible.
The Path Forward
The first step to any and every hypothetical article I’ve written this year or will write is Miami winning the rest of their games. This is the foundation upon which any possible path forward to the ACC Championship Game or College Football Playoff exists. If Miami doesn’t win out, there’s nothing to talk about.
However, with the losses already on the record, simply winning out isn’t all that Miami needs to reach the ACCCG.
To get to the tiebreaker scenario that could favor Miami, there needs to be a large group at the top of the league needs to be 6-2 or worse, with only Duke or Virginia able to go 7-1 or 6-2 in the league. Here’s how that can happen.
Scenario 1
- Week 12: Miami beats NC State, Clemson beats Louisville (DONE), Duke beats Virginia
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Louisville beats SMU
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, SMU beats Cal, Duke beats Wake Forest
If this plays out, Duke is atop the ACC Standings at 7-1, and Miami is 2nd at 6-2, ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, and SMU to get into the ACCCG.
Scenario 2
- Week 12: Miami beats NC State, Clemson beats Louisville (DONE), Duke beats Virginia
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Louisville beats SMU
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, SMU beats Cal, Wake Forest beats Duke
Similar to the above scenario. Duke is 6-2 in this one, but still has the top seed in the conference, and Miami gets the 2nd ACCCG spot on tiebreakers.
Scenario 2
- Week 12: Miami beats NC State, Clemson beats Louisville (DONE), Virginia beats Duke
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Louisville beats SMU
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, SMU beats Cal, Wake Forest beats Duke
Same as above, but in this scenario Virginia is 7-1 in the league, and Miami is 6-2 ahead of many others via tiebreakers to make the ACCCG.
Scenario 3
- Week 12: Miami beats NC State, Clemson beats Louisville (DONE), Virginia beats Duke
- Week 13: Miami beats Virginia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Pitt beats Georgia Tech, SMU beats Louisville
- Week 14: Miami beats Pitt, Cal beats SMU, Wake Forest beats Duke
Virginia 7-1, Miami 6-2 with tiebreakers makes the ACCCG.
That’s not all of the scenarios, but you get the idea.
Team by Team needs
Miami (3-2 ACC)
There’s only one need here: Miami wins out. I know I already said it, but I’m saying it again because y’all love to forget I just said it when I get to the other parts of these scenario pieces. Miami has to win the rest of their remaining games. At home against NC State, on the road at Virginia Tech, and on the road at Pitt.
If that doesn’t happen, nothing else beyond this matters.
Duke (4-1 ACC)
Crazy as it seems, but Duke could go 1-3 in non-conference and still end up in the ACC Championship game. This is the team most likely to make it to Charlotte, and one who doesn’t have a necessary record for Miami to join them.
Surprisingly enough, Duke is the most impactful team toward Miami’s path to the ACCCG. Assuming Miami wins out and goes 6-2 in the league, they would hold multi-team tiebreakers over nearly every other team….except Duke. As such, Miami needs Duke to got 7-1 or 5-3 in the league.
The first path is: Duke beats Virginia in week 12 (key to give UVa their 2nd ACC loss) and then win out against Carolina and Wake Forest. There’s a CRAZY scenario where All the top teams, including Duke, are 6-2 in the league. That would have Duke and Miami make the ACCCG, but needs some wild results that are unlikely to happen to make that come to fruition.
The alternate route (for Miami) would be Duke losing to Virginia AND losing to either Carolina or Wake Forest. Duke would hold tiebreakers over Miami at 6-2 in the league, so they either need to be 7-1 or 5-3 and NOT in the same 6-2 group with Miami.
Georgia Tech (5-1 ACC)
Georgia Tech only has 2 ACC games left since they end the season with the rivalry game against Georgia. Miami needs GT to lose to Pitt in week 13. A loss to Boston College in week 12 would be bonus, but Boston College is terrible this year so don’t expect that to happen. The Pitt loss, however, would put them below the Panthers, and, in this world, Miami as well by virtue of Miami’s week 14 win over the Panthers.
GT splitting their last 2 ACC games would put them at 6-2 in the league and below Miami by virtue of opponent conference record.
SMU (5-1 ACC)
Miami needs SMU to lose one of their final 2 ACC games. Those games are against Louisville and Cal in weeks 13 and 14. The more likely loss is Louisville, so Miami needs that. Miami would have tiebreakers over SMU at 6-2 if it’s a multiple-team situation. Obviously, Miami would lose the head to head tiebreaker if it was only Miami vs SMU at 6-2.
Pitt (5-1 ACC)
Pitt also has 2 ACC games left. Miami needs them to beat Georgia Tech in week 13, and lose to Miami in week 14.
Georgia Tech isn’t losing to Boston College, so they NEED to lose to Pitt to get their 2nd ACC loss. And, it’s fine that Pitt will be 6-1 in the ACC heading into the finale, because, in this world, Miami handles business and beats Pitt to close out the season. This is the one team whose results are absolutely necessary for Miami.
Virginia (5-1 ACC)
This could go a number of ways. Virginia has Duke and Virginia Tech remaining on their ACC schedule, so they could be 7-1 or 6-2 in the league at the end of the year. It would take a miracle for VT to beat them again this year, but that’s an in-state rivalry and crazy stuff happens.
The easiest path to the ACCCG for Miami is Virginia losing to Duke this week, putting them in the big group at 6-2, and Miami winning the tiebreakers.
The alternative is Virginia winning both, going 7-1 in the league, and Duke losing another conference game beyond this one to either North Carolina or Wake Forest to go 5-3 in the league.
Louisville (4-3 ACC)
They lost to Clemson. They’re done.
It’s truly infuriating we found a way to lose to this collection of mid.
So there you have it. I THINK that covered all the scenarios, but I’m sure you’ll let me know if I missed anything.
Regardless of anything else, Miami has to go win the last 3 games. Plain and simple. The rest, well, we’ll have to wait a bit to see how it all shakes out.
