The Philadelphia Eagles are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions and I’m looking to repeat my playoff game preview series from last year.
Let’s take a closer look at some key aspects of the Birds’
Wild Card matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.
1 – Jalen Hurts, The Playoff Riser
Some quarterbacks post gaudy stats in the regular season only to regularly disappoint in the playoffs. Jalen Hurts does not fit into this category.
If anything, it’s the opposite.
We’ve seen him play his best football in the biggest games of his career.
The Eagles are 6-3 with Hurts starting for them in the playoffs. They are 5-0 in home games, 1-1 on neutral fields (two Super Bowls), and 0-2 on the road.
Since 2022, he’s produced 19 total touchdowns (nine passing, 10 rushing) to just two giveaways (one fumble lost, one interception) in the postseason.
It’s not easy to give the Eagles’ offense the benefit of the doubt when they’ve underwhelmed all season long and we just saw them fail to complete a single pass in an entire half of football (for the second time in 2025!) the last time the starters were on the field.
But if there’s hope for that unit, it relies on Hurts continuing to rise to the moment in the playoffs.
It probably doesn’t hurt that he’s healthier than ever entering the playoffs:
- 2021 — He suffered a foot injury that had him in a walking boot after the Eagles’ Wild Card loss.
- 2022 — He missed two games due to a shoulder injury before returning to the field in Week 18.
- 2023 — He suffered a dislocated finger on his throwing hand one week prior to the Eagles’ first playoff game.
- 2024 — He missed two games due to a concussion before returning in the Wild Card round.
Perhaps the dip in Hurts’ rushing attempts helped him stay healthier. But now that the playoffs are here, there’s reason to believe his legs will be more of a factor, which could be a boon for this offense.
Via Next Gen Stats:
Jalen Hurts averaged a career-low 1.7 designed rush attempts per game this season after posting at least 2.3 per game in each of the previous five seasons. He gained 143 yards and nine first downs, including one touchdown, on 27 designed runs, translating to an average of 5.3 yards per carry that aligns with his career mark entering 2025 (5.2).
Last season, Hurts averaged 3.2 designed runs per game during the regular season before increasing that figure to 3.8 during the Eagles’ Super Bowl run across four playoff games
2 – The NFL’s worst playoff defense
The 49ers arguably have the worst defense of the 14 teams that qualified for the postseason. Here’s how they rank in some key categories:
- Opponent yards per play: 24th
- EPA per play: 24th
- Weighted DVOA: 28th
- Success rate: 30th
These struggles are clearly connected to their injury issues. The 49ers have the following key defenders on injured reserve:
- Fred Warner (top off-ball linebacker and the heart and soul of their defense)
- Nick Bosa (top edge rusher)
- Mykel Williams (first-round pick at No. 11 overall)
- Tatum Bethune (Warner’s top backup)
Further, the 49ers’ active roster is banged up. It’s looking like they’re going to be down to two off-ball linebackers who’ve logged just 90 total defensive snaps for them this season: Eric Kendricks and Garret Wallow.
We’ve seen the Eagles’ offense struggle to take advantage of some bad/injured defenses this year, so, nothing is guaranteed. But it’ll be pretty disappointing if the offense gets shut down by Robert Saleh’s group.
3 – Bombs away!
The 49ers’ pass rush is especially ineffective; San Francisco ranks dead last in sacks this season with just 20. That’s six fewer than the next worst team, the New York Jets.
The 49ers also rank 31st in pressure rate, which surely contributes to the fact that they rank 31st in deep passing defense. Hurts should have ample time to throw and he shouldn’t be afraid to take shots down the field.
It’s difficult to believe the Eagles are suddenly going to be a great offense on a play-by-play basis after watching them lead the league in three-and-out percentage this season. But while they might not be able to consistently sustain drives, they could look to compensate for that by aiming for explosive plays.
Enough with the overly conservative approach. Allow Hurts to let it rip. He’s a strong deep ball thrower and the Eagles have great wide receivers who can make big plays.
4 – No, really, the Eagles’ run game could actually have some success this time?
At this point, I think we’ll believe the Eagles can run the ball efficiently when we actually see it happen.
The Buffalo Bills entered Week 17 allowing 5.4 yards per carry and they were missing a couple of their better run defenders … and the Eagles’ 26 carries resulted in just 82 rushing yards for 3.2 yards per carry against them.
If you’re looking for optimism on this front, consider:
- Most of the Eagles’ offensive line rested in Week 18 and Lane Johnson could be back.
- The 49ers just allowed the Seahawks to run for 180 yards, which is Seattle’s second-highest rushing total this season.
- Injuries have decimated the 49ers’ linebacker corps.
- The 49ers’ defense rank 31st in rushing success rate.
Maybe Saquon Barkley gets going on Sunday. We’ll see.
5 – Feed Tank!
While we’re on the topic of the Eagles’ running game, Tank Bigsby needs to get touches in this game. It’s not like he’s going to log double-digit touches (barring injury or garbage time) but he should see at least see a few. He’s been way too efficient (5.9 yards per carry!) to not be utilized at all.
- Eagles’ record when Tank gets 1 carry or fewer: 4-5
- Eagles’ record when Tank gets 2 carries or more: 7-1*
*The one loss came in Week 18, when the Eagles were resting starters … and also inexplicably stopped using Bigsby for the last 17 minutes of the game.
6 – Maybe try throwing to Saquon Barkley?
If the Eagles can get their run game going, great!
If not, why not try to get Barkley involved as a pass-catcher?
The 49ers are tied for allowing the second-most running back receptions this season.
PHLY’s Bo Wulf mentioned last month that the Eagles have only targeted Barkley 10+ yards down the field just three times all season long.
That seems silly since Hurts is a good deep ball thrower and the wheel route is undefeated. These linebackers shouldn’t be able to run with Barkley.
7 – The Lane Johnson difference
It remains to be seen if Lane is going to play against the 49ers. And it remains to be seen how close to 100% he’ll be if he does suit up.
In the event that Johnson does play, that’s obviously a big boost for the Eagles. Just how much of a boost?
They’re 3-4 without him starting this season and 18-28 (.391 winning percentage) without him starting since they drafted him.
They’re 120-62-1 (.658 winning percentage) with him in the starting lineup.
Some more specifics on Johnson’s impact via Next Gen Stats:
With Johnson on the field, designed rushes outside the right tackle earned 2.3 yards before contact per carry, compared to 0.1 with him out of the game. His forfeited pressure rate (6.9%) which sat two percentage points lower than his replacement Fred Johnson’s (8.9%) and ranked as the seventh-lowest among all right tackles (min. 200 pass sets) despite the Eagles helping him with chips on just 7.8% of his pass sets (ninth-lowest)
8 – Dallas Goedert continuing to find the end zone
As previously noted, the 49ers are banged up at linebacker. One would think, then, that the Eagles will look get Goedert matched up on the backups and really go after them.
Except … that’s oddly not how the Eagles approached attacking the Chicago Bears back in Week 13. That defense was missing four of their top five linebackers and Goedert somehow only saw four targets for two receptions.
One would hope Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo learned their lesson from that game. The 49ers are allowing the sixth-most tight end touchdowns this season and the ninth-most tight end receptions.
Goedert has logged the second-most playoff touchdown receptions in Eagles franchise history with four, two behind the legendary Harold Carmichael. Hurts should continue to look Goedert’s way in the red zone.
9 – Does rest definitely help the offense?
After opting not to try harder for the No. 2 seed, which would’ve been theirs with a win over Washington, it better!
While there are certainly benefits to the Eagles getting rest in Week 18, it’s not necessarily a massive advantage.
Here’s a look at the Eagles on extra rest this season:
- Mini-bye following Week 1: Beat the Chiefs in Week 2, 20 to 17
- Mini-bye following Week 6: Beat the Vikings in Week 8, 28 to 22
- Week 9 bye: Beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 10, 10 to 7
- Mini-bye following Week 13: Lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in OT, 22 to 19
Average offensive points scored: 17.5.
10 – Nick Sirianni’s game management
Could be good for the head coach to not merely pass on trying to score points before the end of the first half, if applicable.
11 – Just how good are the 49ers?
Hard to accurately gauge since they’ve been so banged up this season that there have been different iterations of the team. Mac Jones made starts from Week 2-3 and Week 5-10 while Brock Purdy was injured.
Speaking of Purdy’s return, the Niners were on a six-game winning streak and the offense was looking red hot prior to getting shut down in Week 18. How much should we weigh that last game?
For what it’s worth, the 49ers are 4-4 against teams that made the playoffs this season.
The wins:
- Week 1 at Seattle Seahawks, 17 to 13
- Week 5 at Los Angeles Rams, 26 to 23 (OT)
- Week 12 vs. Carolina Panthers: 20 to 9
- Week 17 vs. Chicago Bears: 42 to 38
The losses:
- Week 4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 26 to 21
- Week 8 at Houston Texans: 26 to 15
- Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 42 to 26
- Week 18 vs. Seattle Seahawks: 13 to 3
12 – Vic Fangio vs. Kyle Shanahan
It took too long for me to mention THE premiere matchup of the game but here we are.
While assembling the research for this article, I was interested to learn that Shanny has only ever scored a single touchdown against Fangio.
And that touchdown came in garbage time.
Fangio-led defense are 3-1 against Shanny-led offenses. They have allowed just 41 points total for an average of 10.25 per game.
In fairness to Shanahan, his quarterbacks for those four games were John Beck, Robert Griffin III (non-rookie edition), Jimmy Garoppolo, and Nick Mullens. But those players were still held to some of their very worst performances in those given seasons.
Fangio’s success against Shanahan isn’t a mere coincidence and he’s openly admitted as much (via a 2019 ESPN interview):
Q: Which coach’s defense is the toughest to read and attack?
Shanahan: My hardest has probably always been Vic Fangio. He does so many things with his personnel groupings that he puts you in a bind with protections. He ties a lot of stuff together. Playing against him, I feel he packages stuff very similar to how I would think. [Bill] Belichick is very similar. They do it in a different style. You know they don’t just run their defenses. They figure out what you’re doing and then they think about how to stop what you’re doing and that’s very similar to how I am. I don’t just run my offense. I have no idea what I’m going to call until I know what defense I’m visualizing and trying to attack. It’s fun.
Shanahan praised Fangio more this week while noting that he’s tried to bring Fangio back to the 49ers as their defensive coordinator multiple times.
13 – Strength-on-strength
The 49ers are really good at attacking the middle of the field. The Eagles are really good at defending the middle of the field.
Something’s gotta give.
Via Next Gen Stats:
Purdy (39.8%) and teammate Mac Jones (41.2%) have targeted in-breaking routes at the second-highest and highest rates among qualified quarterbacks, respectively. The Eagles’ defense allowed a league-low 51.9% completion percentage when defending in-breaking routes this season, the lowest rate allowed by defense in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
14 – Can the Eagles’ pass rush stay hot?
The 49ers could be without All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams on Sunday. He missed practice on Wednesday but was limited on Thursday.
Even if he does play, he could be at less than 100% while dealing with a hamstring injury. The 37-year-old was already showing some signs of relative decline prior to getting hurt; he’s let pressure reach the passer on 10.1% of his pass sets, his highest rate since he joined the 49ers prior to 2020 (via Next Gen Stats).
Still, Williams’ absence would be a big deal since the 49ers are 4-13 without him in their starting lineup since he joined the team.
The 49ers are averaging the longest time to throw in the NFL since Purdy returned to the lineup. There could be more of an emphasis to get the ball out quick this week, especially if Williams isn’t playing.
But if Purdy does hold the ball, the Eagles could be able to make him pay. The Birds led the NFL in sacks from Week 13 to Week 17 with 20 in five games played.
Some more pass rush numbers via Next Gen Stats:
Nolan Smith (18.1%) and Jalyx Hunt (17.8%) generated the third-highest and fifth-highest pressures rates, respectively, among edge defenders with at least 100 pass rushes from Weeks 10-17.
Jaelan Phillips (34) and Jalyx Hunt (27) have combined for 61 pressures, including 7.5 sacks, from Weeks 10-17 prior to resting in Week 18, the fourth-most by a pass rush duo over that span.
And this success was achieved without Jalen Carter in the lineup for multiple games. Assuming he’s healthy, which appeared to be the case when he played pretty well in Week 17, that’s another boost to the pass rush.
Purdy got banged around in the 49ers’ Week 18 loss and he could get roughed up again in this game.
On that note …
15 – Kyle Shanahan is tempting fate
Remember when the 49ers whined about not having a quarterback after Purdy and Josh Johnson got hurt in the NFC Championship Game back in January 2023?
Of course you do.
They went through the effort of proposing new legislation to allow for teams to be able to designated one of their inactives as an emergency third quarterback who can play if the first two get knocked out of the game.
And have since proceeded to not even take advantage of that rule! The 49ers opt to keep their third quarterback on the practice squad instead, which doesn’t allow for him to be available as an emergency quarterback on game day.
Shanny was asked about the potential of the 49ers finding themselves in a similar situation to their last playoff visit to Philly:
“If I did that would be same consideration every week. I don’t really chalk it up to that only happens in Philly. … That would take us down somewhere else. With that rule that you don’t get an extra player, I don’t know anyone who could ever choose that, really, unless you’re playing with someone who’s really injured and you don’t think they’ll make it through the game. But to play with one less player throughout the game because of something that, for me, has happened once in 23 years and, other people I’ve worked with, once in 45 years just probably wouldn’t be the best odds.”
Indeed, it’s incredibly unlikely that both Purdy and Jones will get hurt. But in the event that they do, they really have no room to complain about running out of quarterbacks for a second time.
16 – Big Dom’s revenge
You’ll recall that the 49ers’ last trip to Philly in December 2023 resulted in a sideline skirmish involving Eagles senior advisor to the general manager/chief security officer/gameday coaching operations Dom DiSandro and former 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw (who is now on the Denver Broncos) both getting ejected.
Time to get justice for Big Dom.
17 – Bryce Huff revenge game?!
Huff was a healthy scratch for the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX despite being their top-paid free agent signing. Then the Eagles traded him to the 49ers for a 2026 fifth-round pick that could’ve become a fourth-round pick had he logged eight sacks. Huff posted four sacks in the Niners’ first seven games but then he got hurt and hasn’t produced a sack since. He still has been generating pressure, though.
Via Next Gen Stats:
Bryce Huff generated a team-high 23 pressures across 108 pass rushes on third down this season, over twice as many pressures as the next closest 49ers defender (Keion White, 10). Despite that volume, Huff failed to record a single sack on third down, giving him the most third-down pressures without recording a sack of any defender league wide. As a team, the 49ers recorded a league-low 7.0% pressure-to-sack conversion rate on third down and a league-low 11.8% rate overall.
Would be annoying if he did something meaningful for the 49ers in this game after being pretty useless for the Eagles.
