We hate Juventus. All of us. Everyone. And that’s as it should be. But when we get a chance to chat with the wonderful Danny Penza of BWRAO, it’s always a treat because Danny’s cool as hell. Here’s about half our conversation about the upcoming festivities.
Viola Nation: It’s that time again, Danny. It’s time for me to do my worst Jerry Seinfeld impression and ask you, “What’s up with Juventus?” It felt like there was a lot of optimism over the summer that Luciano Spalletti was the man to get them
back into the Scudetto hunt instead of wobbling around 7th place. Is it just a matter of figuring out a new system or is there something deeper here?
Danny Penza: At this point, it’s something deeper than just the manager or just the squad. It’s the systematic failure of previous regimes to actually do good work — hey, where does that sound familiar? I’ll let you guess … — and build a squad that is both competent and one that fits together in a way that makes them a good team. I like to use this line from a James Horncastle podcast appearance last year when he basically said “You screw up one bad (summer) transfer window and you’re behind it. You screw up multiple windows in a row? Then you’re screwed in a major way.” And that is where new Juve CEO Giovanni Carnevali finds himself since coming over from Sassuolo to lead the sporting area this summer — he’s got one hell of a mess to clean up.
Now, Spalletti hasn’t done himself many favors so far this season. But between the coach who is seemingly openly questioning himself whenever this team loses and a front office that still has so much of a mess to clean up after the failed Thiago Motta experiment and then the 12-month run with Damien Comolli and his fancy algorithms, you get a team that is both struggling to be anything other than consistently inconsistent and having their table position be reflective of how they’ve played this season. Throw in so many damn injuries — including to the likes of Kenan Yildiz and Manuel Locatelli, amongst others — and you got what you got in this current version of Juventus.
So yeah, things could be going a lot better.
VN: In what might Serie A’s weirdest stat, the Viola have outscored the Juvenuts 15 to 13. Only Edon Zhegrova and your large adult son Bremer have scored more than once. Keeping in mind that every Fiorentina defender is suffering from a case of Bozo Fever (they really need to get an exterminator over to the Viola Park), do you see any way the good guys (i.e. Fiorentina) can slow down the Bianconero attack?
DP: At this point, I really have no idea. It’s hard to say which version of Juventus will show up other than the one that will ultimately struggle against an opponent that plays a low block and just dares Spalletti’s team to break them down. It has happened a number of times already this season and why any team chooses to do otherwise against Juventus just boggles the mind. There are two things that this Juve team truly struggles with: handling a press and breaking down an opposing defense that plays in a low block. I get that you can’t always have those two things happen at the same time, but these are the facts and I am just here to relay the message.
The general feeling as to why Juve have scored more in the Europa League compared to in Serie A is simply because of how opponents approach the game. Juve have played teams that are more open defensively and don’t necessarily play in a way that will test the Bianconeri’s shortcomings. In Serie A, you can see a number of examples already this season in which Juve have much of the possession, have a good amount of shots, have a decent xG total and ultimately end up dropping points. It’s like you can bet on it … even though I don’t bet on much of anything based on what my current checking account numbers tell me.
Plus, it doesn’t help that your two main strikers, Randal Kolo Muani and Nick Woltemade, aren’t actually No. 9 type of strikers and have subsequently combined for all of one goal in Serie A so far this season. That’s just not good, Tito.
VN: Conversely, Juve’s defense is back where I’d expect it to be, conceding just 10 goals despite switching between a back 3 and a back 4 all season. We all know the main reason is the return of Daniele Rugani, but is there a secondary secret? And are there any weaknesses that a team as ass as Fiorentina could exploit?
DP: You see, you thought you could blame Daniele Rugani for something. You really did. And yet, despite all of the injuries that Juve have had up and down the roster this season, our old pal Dan hasn’t played a single second.
I go back and forth about if Juventus’ defense has been good or if some of the numbers this season have completely misled me into thinking something that is actually well off from the truth. I see a lot of the advanced stats like xGA and things like that and you’d think that Juve’s defense is playing well on the whole. But then you see how they played against somebody like Lazio a couple of weeks ago — and I get that Rino Gattuso’s side has done that to a lot of folks so far this season — or even a couple of days ago in the closing minutes against AZ Alkmaar and it makes you think that this team is not very good defensively at all.
At this point, the defense is not a unit that you can necessarily lean on and try and grind out 1-0 results like Max Allegri used to a few years ago. This is not that kind of team at all. The bouncing between a three- and four-man backline has been due to both the search for more stability in the squad and just the limited options that have been available to Spalletti with all the injuries. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t — which I think is something that a wise man who currently sits atop the Serie A table once said.
VN: It’s just November and Juve’s already had so many injuries, including Nico González. With the games coming thick and fast—that trip to Alkmaar looked more stressful than I’d have expected—how much rotation will we see in the XI? And is there any chance that yall overlook some anonymous relegation straggler right ahead of the international break?
DP: I’d probably guess that the starting lineup from the trip to the Netherlands (and former home of our guy Chuks!) will look a little bit different than the one that walks out of the tunnel at the Franchi this weekend. There are reportedly a few guys potentially coming back into the fold, most notably Zeki Celik, who could be a player who improves the Juventus backline and would be a welcome addition back into the starting lineup when you compare him to the other two defensive liabilities that Juve have on the left, Andrea Cambiaso and Juan Cabal. Weston McKennie was held out as a precaution against AZ, so that could be another name that comes into the starting lineup as well.
But when it comes to overlooking Fiorentina … I doubt it simply because we can look back to the last time these two teams played. Fiorentina can beat this version of Juventus. And if they overlook Fiorentina again, then the same kind of thing will likely happen and you will be in a much better mood on Sunday when we sit down with our respective partners and enjoy a nice dinner. Plus, the Franchi is going to be totally geeked up and it’s not because our old pal Dusan Vlahovic is still around anymore. If you can’t get up to play in that kind of atmosphere, then you’re doing something wrong.
VN: Listen, Danny. We’re not so different, you and I. We both understand that this is an inherently chaotic game and single-game outcomes are noisy and don’t necessarily reflect the larger truths. We’re smart guys, Danny. And I’m still going to ask you to make a prediction because that’s what we do. What’s the score and what kind of match are we in for?
DP: Considering this is Juventus’ final fixture in a stretch in which they will have played nine games in the span of 29 days (yeah, seriously), I’m not really expecting anything pretty. Juve’s post-Europa League performances at the weekend have mostly been duds, the loss to Lazio being the most notable one. They haven’t really done well with the Thursday-Sunday grind that you all saw the last few years with the Conference League. So, on that front, it’s not like I’m going into this trip to Florence with a whole lot of confidence.
I will say something along the lines of an ugly 2-1 Juventus victory in which the goals are scored by a defender or a totally unexpected source. Maybe it’s a late game-winner, maybe it’s an early two-goal lead — I dunno. But, at this point of the schedule with so many fixtures over the last four weeks and another quick turnaround after a Europa League Thursday, the last thing I’m expecting is for a big Juve win. Nope, not at all.
Thanks, Danny. Check out the other half of the conversation on BWRAO and hey, Danny? You’re cool. I’m wishing some suffering on you and will be until about noon PST but you’re cool.
