Trying to predict the future has been part of the human condition since the beginning of time, and it’s no different for NFL fans. Which teams will make the playoffs, who’ll win the division, where will the Lombardi Trophy land this year?
Outside of a few folks who were blessed with the gift of prophesy, most NFL fans understand that trying to predict the future, per Peter F. Drucker, is like “trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.”
But that hasn’t
stopped anybody from making lots and lots of predictions about the 2026 NFL season. In fact, knowing that predictions for 2026 are largely useless, we try to give those same predictions greater legitimacy by constructing data-driven models based on historical trends or data points to support our predictions. One such model that is widely used is the Strength of Schedule.
Traditional Strength of Schedule (SOS) calculations add up the previous year’s record of a team’s upcoming 17 opponents to get a cumulative win percentage for all 17 opponents.
Another way to look at SOS is to use the Vegas projected win totals as a proxy for team strength. Looking at these projected wins isn’t an exact science either of course, but it at least has the advantage of looking at projected future performance, while W/L records are simply a snapshot of past performance.
Here’s how those win totals currently stack up across the league.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| AFC | NFC | ||||||
| Team | Win Total | Over | Under | Team | Win Total | Over | Under |
| AFC East | NFC East | ||||||
| Buffalo | 10.5 | -125 | 105 | Philadelphia | 10.5 | 105 | -125 |
| New England | 9.5 | -140 | 115 | Dallas | 8.5 | -130 | 110 |
| NY Jets | 5.5 | 115 | -140 | Washington | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Miami | 4.5 | -110 | -110 | NY Giants | 7.5 | 110 | -130 |
| AFC North | NFC North | ||||||
| Baltimore | 10.5 | -145 | 120 | Detroit | 10.5 | -130 | 110 |
| Cincinnati | 9.5 | -115 | -105 | Green Bay | 10.5 | 100 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.5 | 115 | -140 | Chicago | 9.5 | 100 | -120 |
| Cleveland | 6.5 | 100 | -120 | Minnesota | 8.5 | 115 | -140 |
| AFC South | NFC South | ||||||
| Houston | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | Tampa Bay | 8.5 | -140 | 115 |
| Jacksonville | 9.5 | 100 | -120 | New Orleans | 7.5 | 100 | -120 |
| Indianapolis | 8.5 | 105 | -125 | Atlanta | 6.5 | -140 | 115 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | -140 | 115 | Carolina | 6.5 | -120 | 100 |
| AFC South | NFC South | ||||||
| Kansas City | 10.5 | -105 | -115 | LA Rams | 10.5 | -140 | 115 |
| LA Chargers | 10.5 | 110 | -130 | Seattle | 10.5 | -130 | 110 |
| Denver | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | San Francisco | 10.5 | 125 | -150 |
| Las Vegas | 5.5 | 115 | -140 | Arizona | 4.5 | -110 | -110 |
BTB’s own RJ Ochoa already pointed out that these numbers are not written in stone, and that these numbers are bound to change after free agency and the draft.
Based on the traditional method of calculating SOS using last year’s data, the Cowboys have the 20th easiest schedule with an 0.493 opponent win percentage.
That’s already in improvement over the 2025 SOS, which had the Cowboys playing the fifth-toughest schedule at 0.557.
And if we look at the SOS based on the Vegas projected win totals, the Cowboys SOS increases moderately from the traditional SOS of 0.493 to 0.514. But in terms of ranking, the Cowboys move from 20th to 5th overall, suggesting that the combined opponents they face in 2026 will be better than they were in 2025.
But there’s an interesting reason for that.
The 2026 Cowboys opponents combine for 148.5 projected wins. In 2025, those same teams combined for “just” 138.5 wins. And that 10-win difference comes down to just two teams: The Commanders (+2.5 wins from 5 in 2025 to 7.5 projected wins in 2026) and the Giants (+3.5 wins from 4 in 2025 to 7.5 projected wins in 2026). The Cowboys play them twice, so that’s a 12-win increase in opponent wins just from those two teams. The rest of the schedule is actually ever so slightly easier than the 2025 win totals suggest, and that’s despite having the NFC West on the schedule instead of the NFC North last year.
Here’s what the SOS based on the latest Vegas win projections looks like:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| “Tough” Schedules | “Meh” Schedules | “Soft” Schedules | ||||||
| Rank | Team | 2026 Opp. Win % | Rank | Team | 2026 Opp. Win % | Rank | Team | 2026 Opp. Win % |
| 1 | ARI | 0.528 | 9 | LVR | 0.507 | 25 | CIN | 0.493 |
| 2 | NYJ | 0.524 | 9 | PHI | 0.507 | 25 | TEN | 0.493 |
| 3 | LAR | 0.521 | 9 | DET | 0.507 | 25 | DEN | 0.493 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.517 | 9 | TAM | 0.507 | 25 | SFO | 0.493 |
| 5 | DAL | 0.514 | 9 | NOR | 0.507 | 29 | PIT | 0.479 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.514 | 9 | ATL | 0.507 | 30 | MIN | 0.479 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.514 | 15 | NWE | 0.503 | 31 | CLE | 0.476 |
| 8 | WAS | 0.510 | 15 | KAN | 0.503 | 32 | CAR | 0.472 |
| 17 | BUF | 0.500 | ||||||
| 17 | IND | 0.500 | ||||||
| 17 | NYG | 0.500 | ||||||
| 17 | GNB | 0.500 | ||||||
| 17 | CHI | 0.500 | ||||||
| 22 | MIA | 0.497 | ||||||
| 22 | BAL | 0.497 | ||||||
| 22 | LAC | 0.497 | ||||||
The message for the Cowboys is clear, and that message is as old as the division itself: Take care of your opponents in the NFC East and everything else will sort itself out.
