Welcome back for another round of fantasy football ramblings. In today’s edition: Overreaction Tuesday.
The week in between the first set of NFL games and Week 2 presents one of the best opportunities all season to change your fortunes in fantasy football. Everyone likes their team going into Week 1 – you had a plan, you drafted the guys you were high on, all that’s left is the coronation – but then reality strikes and there are hits and misses. Every league will see good players given up on too soon
because of a rough opener. Every league will see flashes in the pan become temporarily overrated commodities because they looked great in Week 1. And every league will see the counter-reaction to that as well—guys that surprised Week 1 and will continue to play well, but that you’ll miss out on because you weren’t quick enough to buy that it wasn’t a fluke.
There’s no magic bullet to sorting which players belong in which category, but it’s a good week to make some educated guesses while the masses overreact to a week’s worth of games that are ultimately just a single data point. Check whether the A.J. Brown owner in your league will trade him for a bag of peanuts after a 1-target first week. See if you can sell your shares of Travis Etienne Jr. to someone who thinks a weekly Top 5 RB performance from a guy with Bhayshul Tuten breathing down his neck is somehow sustainable. Find out if the Christian McCaffrey owner in your league wants to “sell high” – but really means take anything he can get – after a decent Week 1 that had potential injury news lurking in the background.
Most importantly, kick the tires and float some trades around just to see where there’s interest. If there’s a sucker to be had in your league, you want to find them before someone else gets the prime assets off their roster at a discount.
In the meantime, here are some names to watch among players with 50% or less ownership in ESPN leagues heading into this week’s waivers:
Geno Smith – Aaron Rodgers will get all the publicity after a 4 TD debut with Pittsburgh. But Geno’s 362 passing yard performance may actually be the more replicable outcome among former Jets castaways, and the next big week like that likely will come with more than 1 TD.
Dylan Sampson – Jerome Ford was reported to be the Week 1 starter. Quinshon Judkins, finally signed, is reported to be the starter of the future. But it was Sampson who was actually the most productive in Cleveland’s opener.
Tyler Allgeier – A former 1,000 yard rusher who quietly split carries in Week 1 (10 for Allgeier, 12 for Bijan Robinson) and may see more opportunities if injuries to Drake London and Darnell Mooney require Bijan to play a more prominent role in the Falcons passing game.
Hollywood Brown – 16 targets in Week 1, with a path to that volume staying consistent due to the Xavier Worthy injury.
Quentin Johnston – Every week won’t be a two touchdown week, but there’s still first-round NFL draft pick pedigree here on an offense that looks like it could be very high-scoring moving forward.
Joshua Palmer – Only Keon Coleman got more looks in the Bills’ Sunday Night Football shootout with the Ravens. Buffalo will spread the ball around, but Palmer will have his share of boom weeks mixed in.
Calvin Austin III – One shy of D.K. Metcalf’s team-leading target total in Week 1, and could have had another significant chunk of yardage on a controversial no-call pass interference play late. The Steelers won’t put up 30+ points every week, but if Aaron Rodgers’ resurgence has any chance of continuing, he’ll need more than just D.K. to produce.
Kayshon Boutte – 100 yard receiving effort was a good start in a losing effort for New England. There’s room for growth here as Drake Maye gains experience.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Clearly looked like the Giants’ second option when Nabers was doubled or bracketed. New York’s offense is going to struggle, especially with their difficult schedule, but they’ll be throwing from behind a lot and there is garbage time yardage to be had here.
Harold Fannin Jr. – Rookie TE led the Browns in targets in their opener but may fly under the radar since he didn’t score. Immediately has David Njoku/low TE1 upside.
Zach Ertz – Somehow still only owned in less than half of ESPN leagues despite a career-worth of historical production, he just plods along reliably with a few catches and a puncher’s chance of a touchdown every week.
Brenton Strange – Won’t lead the Jaguars in receiving yards every week with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter around, but any TE getting that kind of attention Week 1 at least deserves a look.
Hunter Henry – Less upside than Fannin, as the veteran is a known commodity, but also tied for the lead in targets for the Patriots in Week 1, and should at least have a reliable floor.
49ers DST – A bland first week, but the ‘9ers have a friendly slate on deck with the Saints, Cardinals and Jaguars in next three matchups before the schedule toughens up.
Chargers DST – Holding Mahomes & Co. to 21 points in Brazil was a great start. They get the Raiders and Giants in the next three weeks as well, sandwiched around an admittedly trickier date with Bo Nix and the Broncos.
Who’s your under-the-radar waiver claim this week?
Who’s your favorite add after Week 1 that helped win a championship?
