The Cincinnati Bengals return to Paycor Stadium this Sunday to take on the tough Jaguars. Jacksonville has had a couple of impressive victories this season, but they will be facing a motivated Bengals team that suffered a tough loss last week in Pittsburgh.
To help us preview the game, we tapped the knowledge of Gus Logue over at Big Cat Country. We talked about a myriad of topics before Sunday’s big game.
AC: The Jaguars are off to a nice start at 2-1. What’s the pulse on the viability of this team,
as they have two dominating wins against teams of questionable caliber, but with Jacksonville also showing clear signs of improvement in year two under Liam Coen?
GL: Jacksonville has an 11-2 regular-season record since last year’s bye week. Though it hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet of a schedule — and they’ve yet to pass the ultimate test of winning playoff games — the Jaguars are legitimate. They’re a balanced team that can win in a variety of ways. Trevor Lawrence looks unstoppable. The run defense is historically dominant. Ventrell Miller and Bhayshul Tuten have been superb replacing Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd.
And we even saw Travis Hunter catch his first NFL interception last week! Beyond postseason experience, Jacksonville’s biggest concerns are generating a pass rush and going against top pass rushes, but they’ve generally been able to mask those flaws.
AC: After an explosive rookie season, Brian Thomas Jr. seemed to regress steeply in year two, and only has seven catches for 88 yards through three games this year. What’s going on there? Is there hope he will begin to turn things around?
GL: It’s looking pretty grim right now. Thomas Jr. had two brutal drops in Week 2 that were reminiscent of his drops against Cincy in Week 2 last year. The Jaguars stopped sending him over the middle of the field a long time ago, but the issue now is that they’re not even throwing deep to him.
Instead, Thomas Jr. has become a part-time player, mostly just running wind sprints from the X receiver spot. Sixth-round rookie Josh Cameron has taken reps from him, including most high-leverage situations. Cameron already has 2 touchdowns this year thanks to designated targets in the red zone. I waved off trade rumors about Thomas Jr. last year, but at this point, a change of scenery probably makes sense. BT is too talented to be a WR3/4 in Jacksonville when he could be a WR2/3 elsewhere.
His game-breaking speed is being wasted because the Jaguars don’t trust him enough to design shot plays for him. Might as well recoup some draft capital, especially with Cameron looking good and Travis Hunter being available as depth.
AC: Trevor Lawrence has looked much more capable under Coen and is off to a hot start this year, making plays through the air and with his legs. Are these further signs of him progressing as he hits the peak of his career, an indication of excelling against some opposing teams that are struggling this season, or a little bit of both?
GL: By the grace of the football gods, Jacksonville didn’t have to face Myles Garrett in the season opener, but they’ve still played some stout units. The Browns, Broncos, and Patriots were all top-nine defenses by EPA/pass allowed last year, and they all rank top-15 so far this year.
Lawrence has faced quality opponents in every game this season, and he’s responded with great performances, matching the aggressiveness of pass rushes by needling tight-window throws before pressure arrives. He’s admittedly had more head-scratching plays than we’d like to see — his 5.3% turnover-worthy play rate ranks seventh-highest among 37 QBs, per PFF — but we’re finally seeing the best of Lawrence for full 60-minute stretches. He’s lettin’ it rip.
AC: Which player(s) have surprised you the most this year, in terms of their improvement?
GL: Bhayshul Tuten, without a doubt. I actually went into the season thinking that Chris Rodriguez Jr. could end up earning the Jaguars’ starting RB job, but boy, does that seem silly now. Jacksonville’s rushing game is the Tuten show. He looks massively improved as a between-the-tackles rusher compared to last season. Even with Lawrence and the passing game humming, fans are clamoring for Coen to give Tuten the ball more.
I also need to shout out DaVon Hamilton, who has always been a great run-stuffing nose tackle for the Jaguars — but currently, “Ham” is playing like a first-team All-Pro. He is single-handedly blowing up plays as we’ve never seen from him before.
AC: As of the beginning of the week, FanDuel has Cincinnati as 2.5-point favorites at home this week. What’s your feeling about that line, and how do you see this game going?
GL: Cincinnati’s defense is sure to bounce back after allowing Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers to look like Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. At the same time, the Steelers hanging 30 points on the Bengals last week gives me confidence that the Jaguars’ offense will continue to fire on all cylinders. On the other side of the ball, I’m definitely terrified of Ja’Marr Chase, who has 31 catches for 391 yards and 2 scores in JUST THREE GAMES against the Jaguars in his career.
We’ll see if Travis Hunter is up for that tall of a task. So long as Chase is relatively contained, I expect the Jaguars to cover the spread and win outright in a game that far exceeds the projected total of 51.5 points.
Our thanks to Gus Logie over at Big Cat Country for the insight and Week 4 preview! Go check out the other side of the conversation there, too!
