We have been doing this for a few years now: looking at the top free agents, using the contract Ben Clemens suggests he’ll get, and asking whether you would like the Jays to give him that contract. This year, the lockout makes it a little more complicated. Keith Law’s list is here. Ben Clemens’is here.
Number three on Clemens’ list is Trevor Rogers, which seems higher up than I’d put him, and higher than Keith Law has him (13th), but lets consider him now.
Trevor Rogers (whose Baseball Reference page
doesn’t list him as Tyler’s brother, but Tyler’s does list him as Trevor’s brother) turns 29 Friday. A lefty, he’s pitched seven seasons in the MLB, making 132 starts, with a 34-48 record and a 3.88 ERA.
But he is coming in free agency off his best two seasons, with a 7.5 bWAR in 48 games. Most of that is from his 18 starts in 2025. In 2026, he was 10-11, with a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts. FanGraphs, on the other hand, has him at a 4.0 WAR in 2026 and a 3.3 in 2025.
He’s really only been effective in the last couple of seasons, and he has a worrying injury history. I don’t think he’d be the first guy I’d be offering a contract to, but the Jays have some pitchers in the upper minors who could fill in if he misses time.
Clemens writes:
Rogers has what teams want in a free agent starter. He’s currently effective – by fWAR, he was the second-best pitcher in this class in 2026, and a whole alphabet full of advanced ERA estimators agree. He has plus stuff and plus command, and he’s currently doing it with a ton of four-seamers, which means that any number of pitch design teams will think they can kick things up a notch. And he’ll be entering his age-29 season next year, which makes him one of the youngest free agents on the board in addition to being one of the best.
Law:
He still doesn’t have a clear identity as a pitcher; his changeup, once his best offspeed pitch and still effective in 2025, was awful this past year, worth minus-12 runs by Statcast’s pitch metrics, enough to make it one of the 20 worst pitches in MLB. As a result, right-handers smoked him for 18 homers in 169 2/3 innings, versus just one allowed to lefties. He’s had big platoon splits before, but in bad years, not good ones. Can a new team help him regain the tumble on that changeup to make him a real three-pitch starter who has plus control? And maybe mix in more sinkers and fewer four-seamers to make him less of the flyball-oriented pitcher he was in 2026? There’s a lot of potential here, and he can at least offer some reliability after three years without any arm injuries.
Clemens figures him to get 4 years at $26 million per, for a $104 million total. Free agent pitchers are risky, and Rogers seems riskier than most.
