The Cubs managed to eke out their ninth walk off win of the season last night at Wrigley Field. It may seem weird to describe a huge win as “eked” out but that is how it felt. The Cubs entered the eighth inning with eight hits on the night, but four of them were Pete Crow-Armstrong’s cycle. When Caleb Thielbar surrendered a home run to Cole Carrigg in the top of the frame it seemed liked a foregone conclusion that the Cubs were about to suffer yet another agonizing defeat.
They managed to scrap together
a win, however, aided by the control problems that have plagued the Rockies’ bullpen. But it was a subdued PCA who came to the mic to talk about the game, despite having just hit for the first Cubs cycle at Wrigley Field in 33 years:
Given the Cubs’ hot start to the season and recent struggles, it’s easy to see why PCA wants more. Considering he was picked off of first base in a one-run game after completing the cycle in the seventh inning, it’s easy to understand why he was more subdued than celebratory. While all of that is valid, today I’m going to make the case that PCA should go a little easier on himself. There have been some remarkable improvements in his game this season, specifically on the plate discipline side.
The book on PCA coming into the season is that he is an historically elite defender in centerfield with exceptional speed and a hit tool that can best be described as variable. He’s got an incredibly high ceiling and a very low floor, as you can see from his 15-game rolling wOBA throughout his career (as a reminder, wOBA is just a fancy on-base percentage that gives you more credit for extra base hits than walks):
You can see just how hot PCA has been recently relative to his past performance. This 15 game stretch is even better than his first half last season, which had PCA setting a pace for a 40/40 season before ultimately “settling” for a 30/30 season. You probably see another thing in that graph, specifically that the lowest points of the graph have started creeping every so slightly higher.
That’s a massive development for PCA, because if he can move the floor closer to the .300 wOBA rank from the .169 wOBA mark he set at his lowest point last season he’s not just an All-Star, he’s a superstar. To be clear, no one expects his wOBA to remain in the .583 stratosphere he’s currently living in, that will come back to Earth, but if that floor can move up he’ll be much more likely to avoid the collapse he saw at the end of last season in future campaigns.
There are a few statistics that indicate this could be a real development and not a small sample size mirage. Through PCA’s first two full seasons (2024-25), he had 1,057 plate appearances and slashed .243/.287/.443 with a wOBA of .307. For reference, the league average slashline and wOBA in 2025 was .245/.315/.404 and .313. That makes PCA a basically average hitter off the 2025 baseline for the most part with the glaring exception of his on base percentage, which was pretty far below the league norm for the first two seasons of his career.
So far in 2026 through 309 plate appearances PCA is slashing .277/.351/.493 with a wOBA of .364. This season’s league averages for those numbers are .243/.319/.398 and .320, indicating there has been a slight increase in on-base percentages across the league (possibly as a result of the ABS system, but I admit I’m speculating there), but PCA’s improvement this season is a massive step forward from the league average.
You can also see these improvements in PCA’s Statcast cards by comparing 2025 and 2026:
In 2026 PCA is walking 7.8 percent of the time. That’s still below the league average of a 9.1 percent walk rate, but it’s a massive improvement over his prior career mark of 4.7 percent. Taking more walks makes it more likely PCA will get a pitch to do damage on, which probably accounts for at least some of his slugging improvement this season relative to the first two seasons of his career.
A note of caution is required here because it does take a certain number of plate appearances to demonstrate that a player has actually improved a skill. That said, Fangraphs has done some in-depth look at when particular stats stabilize and on-base percentage tends to stabilize right around 300 plate appearances. PCA has 309 plate appearances this season.
PCA is still just 24 years old. He can and will improve and change his approach at the plate as he gets more exposure to the league. While he could regress to his prior sub-.300 OBP ways, here’s hoping this particular change sticks. If it does, PCA could be a historically good centerfielder with above average plate skills across the board. That’s a special player, indeed.
