Welterweight scrappers Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry will go to war this weekend (Sat., May 16, 2026) live on Netflix inside Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif., for the “Rousey vs. Carano”-led MVP MMA 1 card.
Nate Diaz burst onto the scene via The Ultimate Fighter way back in 2007 at the tender age of 22. Now 41, it’s safe to say the Stockton slugger has been there, done that in terms of combat sports. He’s fought for a UFC title, dispatched top-ranked contenders, and famously handed Conor McGregor his first
loss in one of the sport’s greatest upset wins.
What’s left for the younger Diaz brother?
Another brawl, apparently. By diving headfirst into bare knuckle boxing, Mike Perry has built his name after his UFC career in a way most simply cannot manage. “Platinum” became the face of BKFC and secured the paycheck of his lifetime by boxing Jake Paul, a connection which surely helped land him this massive opportunity on the first-ever Netflix MMA card.
Neither man has fought in the cage in several years, so anything could happen. Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Diaz vs. Perry Betting Odds
- Nate Diaz victory: +176
- Nate Diaz via TKO/KO/DQ: +1100
- Nate Diaz via submission: +470
- Nate Diaz via decision: +550
- Mike Perry victory: -230
- Mike Perry via TKO/KO/DQ: +195
- Mike Perry via submission: +2700
- Mike Perry via decision: +180
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Diaz Wins
Nate Diaz is a long, rangy boxer with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Really, the entire Diaz strategy is weaponized pace. By staying on his opponents with consistent straight punches and pull counters, Diaz never gives his opponent a chance to rest. Then, if they start wrestling, he keeps the scramble going and continues to work at the gas tank with submission threats.
In the face of that style, lots of opponents fatigue quickly.
Tiring Perry out certainly feels like Diaz’s best chance at victory. In terms of pure power and even durability, Diaz is outgunned at this stage of their respective careers. It’s not like his jiu-jitsu is likely to come into play either, as Perry was historically fairly difficult to ground and will be the bigger man.
Fortunately, Diaz does have the height and reach advantages. If the Southpaw can start popping his jab and 1-2, Perry is famously bad at moving his head. Diaz should be looking to strand him on the outside, make him miss, and then punish the brawler as he slows down.
If Diaz can catch a kick or otherwise land an easy takedown, that would be very helpful too.
How Perry Wins
There are some tricks and setups to his offense, but Perry is a man who wins fights by hitting very hard and being inhumanly tough. Despite his brawler status, “Platinum” was always reasonably slick on the floor as well, capable of landing powerful takedowns and showing good transitional skills on the canvas.
On one hand, Perry should smash Diaz. He’s younger, faster, and more powerful. He’s been way more active in recent years and will probably show up in better physical shape. Conversely, Perry very much fits the classic archetype that gets chewed up by the Diaz brothers. He’s confident in his knockout power and loves to swing for the fences, two traits that the Diaz brothers have countered many, many times in the last couple decades.
Therefore, this fight will test Perry’s veteran savvy. He has to pick and choose when to turn up the heat and when to hang back. Just because he can hit Diaz doesn’t necessarily mean he should. Perry wins this fight by making his flurries occasional but impactful, trying to outdo Diaz in terms of damage rather than sheer volume.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the occasional takedown from Perry either given the size and strength edge. If he can gain a position like half guard, sitting on Diaz is a fair way to recover for a moment between big offensive bursts.
Diaz vs. Perry Prediction
At no point in Nate Diaz’s career was he a great Welterweight. People forget that Diaz was a genuinely elite Lightweight, a title challenger with multiple Top Five-ranked wins on his resume. They forget because of his mediocracy at 170, where Diaz has always been relatively weak. He’s easier to hold down, his punches are easier to walk through, and Diaz himself is easier to hurt when fighting larger opponents.
For the second time, Diaz is now 41 years old. Outpacing significantly younger opponents is not a trustworthy play. The more likely outcome is that Perry’s power is felt early, allowing him to dictate exchanges and build damage rather than accumulate fatigue.
