On the one hand, the series against the Phillies did not go as one would have wanted. They lost two out of three, the offense was last seen on a milk carton, and the one game they did win required a bullpen game shut out and late inning heroics from James McCann. That said, they still sit in a Wild Card position, and there are three fewer games on the schedule. This series probably put the dream of surpassing the Phillies out of reach, but realistically, that was decided when they went on their first
winning streak. It’s always been the Padres and Marlins that we need to worry about, and those two teams remain behind us.
The Astros are leading the very weak AL west with a 72-69 record, up two games over the sub-.500 Rangers. This is in large part due to them winning seven of their last ten while the rest of the division wallows in both short and long term mediocrity.
Game 1 — Merrill Kelly (0.0 bWAR, 9-12, 5.08 ERA/82 ERA+, 1.48 WHIP) vs. Cristian Javier (-0.6 bWAR, 1-5, 6.45 ERA/65 ERA+, 1.63 WHIP)
Two starts ago, the Cubs tipped that Kelly was tipping pitches. It was a whole thing. Lovullo took out some of his Marte related frustration on Craig Counsell, apologized later for it. It was nuts. The very next start, Kelly threw seven shut out innings. Was it because he wasn’t tipping pitches? Was it because he faced the Giants? Well, this start might give us the beginning of an answer to that. Racking up four walks, however, was a sign of concern that maybe it was a combination of both.
Javier has only made 13 apperance (eight starts) after missing a good chunk of the season with a shoulder injury. It has not gone great for him since returning. Only three of his appearances saw him complete the fifth inning, and his last three outings (two starts, one “relief” appearance where he came in in the first inning) haven’t been more than 4.1 innings, and has given up at least three runs in four of his last five. This should be a game where the Diamondbacks offense takes advantage.
Game 2 — Brandon Pfaadt (1.7 bWAR, 7-2, 3.49 ERA/119 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP) vs. Ethan Pecko (-0.2 bWAR, 1-0, 6.23 ERA/68 ERA+, 1.53 WHIP)
After a couple less than stellar starts against the Red Sox and Cubs, Pfaadt bounced back in his last outing to the tune of six innings of two run baseball against the Phillies. It also was his first loss since returning to the Big League club in June, because the offense can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag right now. As the regular season moves towards its inevitable conclusion, the Diamondbacks will need Pfaadt to maintain this high standard he has set for himself, especially with the offensive struggles.
Pecko is the #9 overall prospect for the Astros, and was called up to the Big Leagues about two weeks ago now. He’s made three starts since then, and early returns haven’t been great. He kept the Angels to just two runs, but only managed to go 3.2 innings. Next time out he got rocked by the Yankees to the tune of five runs in 4.1 innings. However, his most recent start was his best, only giving up three runs, two earned, to the Mets in 5 innings pitched. One thing for the Diamondbacks to be on the look out for is that he has already given up nine walks in those three starts. If they can manage some patience, they might be rewarded with some baserunners.
Game 3 — Eduardo Rodriguez (5.1 bWAR, 14-5, 2.59 ERA/161 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Peter Lambert (2.8 bWAR, 8-7, 3.66 ERA/113 ERA+, 1.24 WHIP)
E-Rod had a bit of a down start, at least by his 2026 standards, against the Phillies. He battled through five innings, gave up eight hits, three runs, while also walking three. It wasn’t the worst start ever, but it also wasn’t his best. Didn’t really matter, though. As mentioned above, the offense can’t hit and the bullpen coughed up another four runs in this one, so his sub-par start was not the reason for the loss.
Lambert had an interesting month of August. His earned runs allowed for the month were: 2, 2, NINE, 2, 2. The really crazy part is that the nine runs were against the Angels. Most of those starts were five innings or fewer, however, so an opportunity to knock him out early as well.
Conclusion
On paper, I think this is a series the Diamondbacks should win fairly easily. They have the pitching advantage in the first two games, even with Kelly’s struggles, but the real question mark is the offense. They have five straight games now of scoring two runs or fewer since their outburst against the Giants. If they can’t get that fixed, then it really won’t matter how good the pitching is. You just don’t win too many games 1-0 like they did on Wednesday against the Phillies. I think they pull it off though, and win two out of three.
