I still have BTBS coming up on Tuesday but an idea led to a rabbit hole which led to this broken-out article.
Mostly, my complaint revolves around how Kirby Moore scripts his plays and the decision matrix he uses on when to do what. And while I’ve never worn a coach’s headset or installed an offense or handled play calling of any kind, I am always curious as to how OCs determine what to call and when they call it, especially when there’s a gentleman on the other side who has spent that week – and many
before it – analyzing YOU and picking up on all the tendencies that YOU may or may not know YOU have.
It’s a hard job! I wouldn’t want to do it!
But since Kirby Moore DOES seem to want to do it, I want to break down HOW he’s doing it.
First off: you can’t run the ball every down. That’s not how this sport works. Even triple option teams have to throw it every once in awhile, and that’s a scheme that actually uses deception and, ya know, OPTIONS to vary how they run the ball.
Missouri does not build a lot of options into its rushing attack, despite having a rushing quarterback. Most play action is out of the pistol and involves a hard-ass sell of the quarterback turning his back to the line, giving a solid fake hand off, the flipping his hips and reassessing the defense after about 1.3 seconds of not watching the coverage develop.
That’s hard to do at any level, let alone the college level with a quarterback that isn’t a renowned pocket passer.
Yes, there’s a few RPOs sprinkled in where the QB can pull the hand off and throw a quick pass but they aren’t nearly as prevalent as you’d like a run-oriented team to have. If running the ball is your strength, you need to act like you’re going to do it every time and draw up your plays to make it look like you’re going to do it every time. I’ve watched Kirby Moore’s offenses for three years now: I’m not confident Missouri does that.
Second, WHEN you call a play matters. As I’ve said previously, if you run on standard downs and throw on passing downs any dumb defense is going to pick up that tendency. I understand Missouri needs to keep up with the chains to have any ability to operate but you can’t just run it on 1st and hope that it gets three yards and that the defense doesn’t see it coming. Passing on standard downs and running on passing downs is a great way to break script and keep the defense on their heels.
So, with that in mind, I want to revisit the opening, scripted drive for Mizzou that went so well. Here’s a screenshot of how it went down:
- First play: quick screen pass to Kevin Coleman in the slot. Excellent. Oklahoma had seven in the box and the secondary 9-yards of the line of scrimmage and Kirby hit them with a quick pass. It didn’t go for much and wasn’t a successful play but it got 2 yards.
- Now you’re in 2nd-and-8. Obvious passing down. What does Kirby call? He has Jordon Harris tight to the right side of the line, Hardy next to Pribula in the shotgun, and Coleman on the other side of Pribula but running motion to the left of Hardy presnap. I’ve only seen Mizzou run out of this play and not pass, so it is indeed a Hardy run because one safety follows Coleman and there’s numbers on the right side for Hardy to gain 8 yards. Good idea, not great scheme since that’s not a super creative set, but great execution here by all 11 on offense. Successful play!
- It’s 3rd-and-2. It’s a standard down so a run or a pass are equally viable here. It’s Mizzou in 2025 so Oklahoma guesses it’s a run. The Sooners have seven in the box, the corners 2-yards off the LOS and the safeties 9-yards off the LOS and, yet, back-peddling at the snap for some reason. Harris is still attached on the right side of the line, and that’s where Jamal Roberts runs. He gets hit at the LOS and falls forward. Lazy idea, not great scheme, but great execution. Probably the one poor play in this grouping if we’re being frank. But it is a successful play.
- But now it’s 1st-and-10. Standard down, anything goes. Does Kirby run it again? He doesn’t, but he also needs his binky and is on the correct side of the field to run his happy-place play: pistol formation, play action boot-right to the short side of the field and either throw it to Brett Norfleet or have Pribula scramble. Beau scrambles for 8 yards. There’s another seven Sooners in the box and the linebackers get caught on the fake to Hardy, then double back and both attach to Norfleet, leaving a wide lane for Pribula to take advantage of. BAD idea (solely because I hate that play) but I like the run/pass option here and it’s great decision making by Beau to tuck it here. Successful play!
- Now it’s 2nd-and-2. Standard down, obvious run situation for Mizzou. Moore has the offense hurry to the line and snap it quick so the OU line isn’t set and Hardy is able to get five yards after squatting half the defense on his back. Good idea to hurry up out of nowhere, ok scheme, good execution, successful play.
- Another 1st-down! We all know Kirby likes to run on 1st but does he here? Nope! We’re back to the short-side play action boot pass to Norfleet/run and, this time, no one is covering Norfleet so the pass goes for 5 yards after Brett forcing a whiffed tackle from an out-of-place Owen Heinecke. I still don’t like this play but I like the idea to pass it, and it was a successful play so I’m good!
- It’s now 2nd-and-5. Again, Missouri likes to run in standard downs. Do they? Negative. Josh Manning motions from the far/left-side of the field to the short/right-side as Pribula rips an outside screen to Donovan Olugbode. There’s a mess of DBs over on the short side that he’s not able to wade through, despite some good blocking from Manning. Good idea, bad scheme (Kirby loves going to the short side of the field), good execution, but it only gets 60% of the yards needed so its not a successful play here.
- Back to a 3rd-down situation. 2 yards to go so you’d think its a run but Mizzou has been doing the boot-right quick throw in this situation on this drive. Do they do it again? Haha no! It’s a Jamal Roberts run right up the middle after Oklahoma blitzes two linebackers to the outside. Good idea, good scheme, good execution plus some luck with OU running it’s LBs out of the play. That’s a successful play and now you’ve crossed the opponent’s 40-yard line and have created a scoring opportunity.
- Now Moore starts leaning on the running backs. 1st-down run for 3 yards that gets snuffed out pretty quickly, an offsides call when OU surprisingly offers a light box against Mizzou’s standard pistol set, then Hardy breaks through for 4 yards against a seven man defensive line that beats him to the stretch but can’t bring him down. Then, on the next play, Hardy is able to get through another strong, six-man defensive line after cutting back, forcing a missed tackle, and racking up 8 yards.
- But then the next run has Keagan Trost holding a guy. And then Kirby panics a little and calls two straight passes to try and catch back up. Neither are successful plays and it ends in a field goal.
If you’re keeping track here, that’s 3 called passes on 1st-down followed by two runs after Moore has established that they can/will pass on 1st. On a day where the offense had a 29% success rate running the ball and a 32.5% success rate passing the ball, this drive had an overall success rate of 64.3% – 87.5% on the ground, 20% through the air.
But look at the splits for the rest of the game. Outside of that drive (and before Moore went pass whacky in a 4th quarter that featured one called run) Mizzou called 11 run plays on 1st down and only 7 pass plays, none of which started off a drive. Moore seemingly has these good ideas to stay off-tendency but then, for whatever reason, starts getting back to predictable calls.
Or, as he did in the 4th quarter, abandon the run completely. Now, I understand running the ball WAS NOT WORKING against Oklahoma but, you know what? Neither was asking your quarterback, fresh off of an ankle injury and not practicing for three weeks, to come in and sling it around.
I will admit to this, however: Brent Venables is one of the greatest defensive minds in football right now, and going back to his days as Oklahoma defensive coordinator, he is renowned for identifying tendencies, attacking weaknesses, and identifying how you’re going to play him and properly adjusting after one drive. The offensive coordinators who manage to beat him typically do so by offering one to two counter punches to his adjustments. On this day, Kirby Moore did not do that in a manner that worked.
All I ask is for Mizzou’s quarterbacks to be put in a position to succeed to keep defenses guessing and I just don’t believe that’s happening over the past two years, and certainly not in this game.
Except for this first drive. I liked that.
My additional critiques would be to throw in some different pass plays other than the boot option, OR do a different type of RPO…but we also have two games left in the season, so that’s more a wish-list item for next year.
The point is, Moore CAN do the thing I’m asking, he just tends to forget/abandon it as the game goes on. And – in my best HR corporate lingo – that’s an area opportunity I’d like for him to focus on for the next fiscal year.
