Series Preview: Mariners (72-62) at Guardians (66-66)
With a successful homestand in the books, the Mariners embark on their last long road trip of the season. This series against the Guardians represents one of the few series remaining on the schedule with some semblance of playoff implications. The next four series come against teams well outside the playoff picture before the M’s wrap up the season with three of four series coming against contenders.
It might be a stretch to call the Guardians playoff contenders. They’re currently five games back
in the Wild Card race and they’re currently in the midst of a 3-9 stretch. They did enjoy a post-All Star break surge, but this recent slide undermined all that progress they had made in the standings. And considering the losses of Emmanuel Clase and Luis L. Ortiz to non-disciplinary paid leave as part of a gambling investigation and the trade of Shane Bieber at the trade deadline, they don’t really look the part of a contender right now.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Steven Kwan
LF
L
557
8.6%
8.1%
0.108
99
Daniel Schneemann
RF
L
345
25.5%
9.6%
0.156
92
José Ramírez
3B
S
545
11.0%
9.5%
0.220
131
Kyle Manzardo
1B
L
423
25.8%
9.5%
0.218
110
C.J. Kayfus
DH
L
73
28.8%
6.8%
0.182
78
Gabriel Arias
SS
R
385
33.5%
6.0%
0.140
78
Bo Naylor
C
L
336
24.1%
12.2%
0.174
77
Brayan Rocchio
2B
S
278
21.6%
4.3%
0.100
71
Angel Martínez
CF
S
405
23.2%
4.0%
0.141
72
The Guardians have the worst offense in baseball by wOBA and the third worst by wRC+. It’s essentially just José Ramírez carrying the majority of the load and a bunch of spare parts making up the bottom half of the lineup. And when Ramírez isn’t hitting — he’s collected just five hits in his last 11 games — the whole offense doesn’t really work. Steven Kwan is the trusty sidekick to Ramírez who could really produce at the top of the lineup, but he’s struggling too; he’s posted a 76 wRC+ since the All-Star break. There are a few signs of hope. Kyle Manzardo has a 131 wRC+ and six home runs in the second half and he should get plenty of time at first base now that Cleveland has released Carlos Santana from its roster. C.J. Kayfus is another top hitting prospect who made his debut recently, though he’s struggled a bit since making the jump to the big leagues.
Logan Allen used to throw one of the most unique changeups in baseball. Its outlandish lack of horizontal movement made it seem more like a screwball than a traditional offspeed pitch. He made a tweak to that pitch this year and it lost all of its outlier traits; it’s coming in a little harder, it now has plenty of arm-side horizontal movement, and it doesn’t dip as much as it used to. The individual results on that pitch have suffered, but Allen’s overall results have improved after a pretty miserable year last year. Without the unique changeup, the rest of his repertoire is pretty nondescript and he seems destined for a back-end role in Cleveland’s rotation until he hits arbitration and becomes too expensive for what he provides.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Gavin Williams
136.2
23.3%
12.4%
14.6%
44.8%
3.36
4.60
Logan Gilbert
97.2
34.7%
6.0%
17.2%
42.6%
3.69
3.15
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
38.5%
96.7
100
107
91
0.387
Sinker
5.2%
95.7
100
34
90
0.339
Cutter
15.8%
91.8
86
79
123
0.402
Curveball
21.0%
82.1
117
109
97
0.259
Sweeper
19.5%
86.7
107
122
98
0.244
From a previous series preview:
Over the last decade or so, the Cleveland pitching development pipeline has done a very good job of churning out above average major league pitchers who feature fantastic secondary weapons but struggle with subpar fastballs. The thought is that the plus breaking balls and offspeed pitches will more than offset the lack of heat, and that’s been true for guys like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and a host of others. Gavin Williams fits perfectly into that mold. He’s got a phenomenal sweeper, a good curveball, and cutter that produces a ton of weak contact. His fastball is … fine. He’s able to get more whiffs than average with it but opposing batters really crush it when they put it in play. He also struggles with poor command which has gotten him into trouble at times this year.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Tanner Bibee
148.1
20.9%
7.4%
14.0%
44.0%
4.73
4.65
Bryce Miller
58.2
18.1%
10.0%
13.7%
36.5%
5.98
5.22
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
27.7%
94.4
85
60
109
0.397
Sinker
16.4%
94.1
112
77
107
0.276
Cutter
19.3%
85.9
102
127
114
0.291
Changeup
14.6%
81.9
113
134
93
0.293
Curveball
4.4%
79.6
110
70
96
0.333
Slider
17.5%
83.0
113
90
108
0.291
From a previous series preview:
You can chalk up another Cleveland no-fastball, all-secondary-stuff pitcher in Tanner Bibee. Maybe even more so than Williams. Bibee’s fastball grades out particularly poorly by Stuff+ and the results it generates are pretty lackluster. It’s all about the secondary pitches for him. His two best pitches are his cutter and changeup and his pretty good sweeper gives him three above average offerings to try and keep batters off his heater. This profile worked pretty well for him during his first two seasons in the big leagues, but he’s really struggled this year. He’s tried adding a sinker to his pitch mix, but even though the stuff models like that new pitch, it hasn’t been very effective at all.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Astros
74-60
0.552
—
W-L-L-W-W
Mariners
72-62
0.537
2.0
L-W-W-L-W
Rangers
68-67
0.504
6.5
W-W-L-W-W
Athletics
63-72
0.467
11.5
W-L-W-W-W
Angels
62-71
0.466
11.5
L-L-W-L-L
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Red Sox
75-60
0.556
+2.5
L-W-W-W-W
Yankees
73-60
0.552
+2.0
W-W-W-W-W
Mariners
72-62
0.537
—
L-W-W-L-W
Royals
69-65
0.515
3.0
L-W-L-W-W
Rangers
68-67
0.504
4.5
W-W-L-W-W
Guardians
66-66
0.500
5.0
L-L-L-W-W
It’s a good thing the Mariners took care of business against the Padres because the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Royals all thrived in their easier matchups this week. Houston has a wrap-around, four-game series against the Angels this weekend, Boston hosts the Pirates, and New York started a four-gamer against the White Sox with a win yesterday. The Royals are the one team with a tough matchup this weekend as they host the Tigers in an intra-division battle.
