Good morning Birdland,
This is the type of offseason that Orioles fans have been clamoring for since Mike Elias took control of the team back in 2018. Going into Friday, Elias had already been quite aggressive, trading for Taylor Ward and Andrew Kittredge, and signing Pete Alonso and Ryan Helsley. But the O’s EVP took it to another level with an intra-division trade to wrap up the week.
The Orioles landed right-handed starter Shane Baz from the Rays in exchange for four prospects (Michael Forret, Slater
de Brun, Caden Bodine, and Austin Overn) and a Competitive Balance Round A pick. It always seemed like the Orioles would add at least one starter via trade, and now they have.
Baz is almost a 1-for-1 replacement of Grayson Rodriguez, who the O’s dealt away for Ward back in November. The difference is that Baz was healthy in 2025 (166.1 innings), and he has one less year of team control. But at 26 years old and three seasons until free agency, the Orioles must feel they can help the former top prospect reach his ceiling.
The top line numbers for Baz last season were underwhelming. He had a 4.87 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 9,52 K/9, and 3.46 BB/9. It’s serviceable, but not exactly “frontline.”
Beneath the hood, things look better. Baz throws one of the hardest fastballs in the league, averaging 97 mph on the offering. And his 3.85 xERA is more than a full run lower than his actual ERA. That indicates some bad luck, particularly in the home run department, where more than 15% of fly balls he allowed left the park. That’s quite high.
That may have been due to playing his home games in an offense-friendly minor league park. He had a 5.90 ERA and .827 OPS against when pitching at Steinbrenner Field in 2025. On the road, his numbers were much better: 3.86 ERA and .686 OPS. In his lone game at Camden Yards last year he tossed four shutout innings.
The return package is pretty beefy. None of the prospects are currently considered “Top 100” types, but de Brun and Bodine were first-round picks just a few months ago, Forret was starting to impress down on the farm, and Overn seems like he could be a future bench piece on a big league squad. Adding in the pick makes this a 5-for-1 swap, which is inherently risky, particularly when you are sending those players to an AL East foe.
That said, the Orioles had the prospect wiggle room to make this move. The team had a massive draft class last year, and then they acquired a bunch of talent at the trade deadline. You can’t hold on to all of these players, especially not if you want to win major league games now. Baz will help you do that in 2026 and for a couple of years after that.
The question will now be how Elias and the Orioles view Baz in their offseason plans. Was this their big addition to the rotation? It was certainly expensive in terms of prospect cost, but it won’t change the payroll much. Baz is projected to make ~$3 million in his first trip through arbitration. Many of the big free agent arms (Framber Váldez, Ranger Suárez, Tatsuya Imai) remain on the market.
Prior to the Alonso signing last week, the Orioles had $40-50 million to spend before they even reached their 2025 payroll number, and Elias has indicated that there is room to spend beyond that number. Between Alonso and Baz they have already added another ~$33 million to their 2026 commitments, so there is still some room to spend. How much room? We can only guess.
The rotation needs another arm. You feel fine about Dean Kremer and his contributions throughout a season. Tyler Wells is less of a certainty, and wouldn’t he fit better in the bullpen that still needs help anyway? The Orioles didn’t talk to all of those big name free agent starters for no reason. Maybe they were laying the ground work for a big contract, or maybe they heard some numbers and years that pushed them towards this Baz swap. Whatever the case, one more addition should be in the team’s future. When it happens and how big it will be remains to be seen.
Links
Importance of Bradish and Rogers remains after Orioles trade for Baz | Roch Kubatko
If Bradish and Rogers can stay healthy and pitch up to their standards, the Orioles have no glaring need for an “ace.” They’ve already got two on their staff. But it would be nice to see the club add someone in between that duo and the newly-added Baz.
Jon Meoli: In trading for Shane Baz, the ‘transactional’ Orioles show again how things have changed | The Baltimore Banner
As Meoli points out, this offseason’s version of Elias is very different from the guy that took over this organization years ago. He isn’t prospect-hugging anymore. But it’s also wise to consider the types of players that he traded here. The Orioles are overrun with catchers and outfielders, and they have made a habit of turning late-round arms into intriguing prospects. So maybe they feel like they didn‘t give up all that much relative to the rest of the talent in the organization.
Orioles acquire Shane Baz, a starter on the rise, by leveraging prospect depth | The Athletic
Keith Law seems to like this deal for both sides. He’s a Baz fan, and he also thinks de Brun and Bodine are good. But overall, it seems he’s buying Elias’ vision for the pitching staff. It certainly feels better than it did a year ago, and there should be at least one more addition.
Orioles birthdays
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
- Joey Krehbiel turns 33 today. The righty spent parts of three seasons in the Orioles bullpen from 2021 through 2023, but most of his contribution came in ‘22, when he compiled a 3.90 ERA over 57.2 innings.
This day in O’s history
1995 – The Orioles sign B.J. Surhoff to a three-year contract.
2000 – Mike Bordick returns to the Orioles just months after he was traded to the Mets in exchange for Melvin Mora. Bordick inks a two-year deal with the O’s to retake his place as their everyday shortstop.
2013 – Orioles pitcher Troy Patton is suspended 25 games for testing positive for amphetamines.
