Welcome to Week 6! Week 5 was a wild one, with three games going to overtime (including the Sunday and Monday night games) and the London game featuring two lead changes in the final eight seconds.
What will we get this week? A better question might be “who will we get this week”? One injured quarterback returned in Week 5 (Jayden Daniels), and what a return it was – the 2024 offensive rookie of the year reminded of us of why he’s elite when healthy – he ran for over 100 yards and two touchdowns,
and broke 30 fantasy points! Four more banged-up quarterbacks started the week off as questionable to return in Week 6 – Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, and Michael Penix, Jr. Whether they return will impact lineup decisions for fantasy managers. Mayfield was ruled out on Thursday.
Daniels wasn’t the only QB to break 30 fantasy points last week – two others joined him. Eight QBs cracked 25 fantasy points, and 14 scored at least 20. Wow. I wrote a lot this summer about the incredible depth of quality at the QB position for fantasy this season, and we’re seeking that play out.
Stats of the Week:
- The NFC East didn’t get any wins in Week 5, even though there was a divisional game.
2. The Eagles (2-3) are under .500 for the first time since the 2021 season.
3. Every team in the AFC North is over .500, while no teams in the NFC South are over .500
4. Wow category: With two more TDs on Sunday, Jahmyr Gibbs passed another Lion (Barry Sanders) for the most TDs by a player before turning 25. Gibbs has 58 TDs in 54 regular season games played.
5. Ick category: With two more fumbles on Monday night, James Cook now has 11 since the start of last season. No other running back has more than five fumbles in that span.
6. Jaylen Warren became the first player since Herschel Walker (1986) to have an 80+ yard TD catch and a 50+ yard TD run in the same game.
OK, Week 6, here we go! Note: The HOU@JAC game is in London – set those lineups early!
Bye Weeks: CIN, DET, MIA, MIN
Week 6 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Last week, my Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did pretty well, and my featured picks cooked. My Co-Rides of the Week (Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett) both cracked 25 fantasy points, my Fade of the Week (Jalen Hurts) scored just 13 fantasy points (QB21), and my Sleeper of the Week (Jameis Winston) also broke 25 fantasy points and finished as the QB6. You can check my work here.
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Ride of the Week:
Jordan Love (vs. DAL). I went back and forth between Christian Watson and Love. Don’t worry, Watson is on the Ride list too. Love is consistent so far this season, with exactly two TD passes in all five starts. I think he’ll have at least three this week. He has at least 29 pass attempts in each start, so the volume is there. His best weekly finish on the season was last week, when he finished as the QB8. He has a great chance to improve on that this week against Dallas’s suspect secondary. I’m sure Joey Porter, Jr. will help, but Dallas is allowing the sixth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs, and they don’t have a pick yet this season. With four teams on Bye and multiple QBs banged up, Love is a clear QB1 option this week, even in shallow leagues. Reminder: Green Bay and Dallas played to a 40-40 tie last season (Love had 300+ yards, three TDs, and zero picks in that shootout).
Fade of the Week:
Omarion Hampton (@KC). I get it – you used a second round pick on Hampton, and confirmation bias makes it hard to bench him. But at this point, you have to consider it. Ask any gambler: Throwing good money after bad rarely works out. The Chargers are a mess, their offensive line is, well, offensive, and he’s not seeing enough work to give you any confidence that a breakout game is coming. His snap share has been under 50% in each of the last three contests and hit a season-low 30% last Sunday. He hasn’t topped 15 touches in three straight games. It’s also a tougher matchup. KC is only allowing opposing RBs an average of 69 yards per game, which is third best in the NFL. Heard enough? Hampton is ranked as the RB25 this week and I think that’s generous. He’s a clear sit for me.
Sleeper of the Week:
Jameis Winston (vs. NO). For the first time ever, I’m running back a sleeper of the week. Even after last week’s bounty, he’s once again the 17th-ranked QB on the board, and once again I think that’s too low. Jameis is feeling it (two straight games with three TD passes, and at least 20 fantasy points), and Malik Nabers is looking more and more like his old self. Jameis is benefitting from a soft landing after the Dart injury – four straight games against losing teams, with three of them at home. The Saints are middle of the pack against QBs, but that’s in large part because they’re so easy to run on. Fire up Jameis with confidence if you need him.
Quarterback:
Elite option this week – Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, and Brock Purdy; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Dak Prescott (@GB). The 52.5 Vegas total for this game is the second highest on the board this week, and the Cowboys will have had ten days to stew over their embarrassing home loss to the Bucs. Green Bay is allowing the second fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, but part of that is who they’ve faced. Dak should find success in what figures to be a shootout, like the aforementioned game between these teams last season.
Others ranked in the Top-15 this week who I think will outperform their ranking: Jayden Daniels (@SF), Drake Maye (vs. NYJ), and Kirk Cousins (vs. BUF).
Sleepers:
Jacoby Brissett (@LAR) doesn’t have a great matchup, but as was the case in last week’s blowout loss to the Lions, volume while chasing points should get him to some decent garbage-time totals. Brissett is averaging just under 40 pass attempts per game.
If you need a second QB in a Superflex, or a streamer for someone who is hurt or on a Bye, there are some OK options, including Michael Penix, Jr. (vs. CHI, if he is able to play), Jalon Daniels (vs. PIT), and (gulp), Deshaun Watson (vs. BAL). If you’re really desperate, Tanner McKee (vs. CAR) could have some success throwing on Carolina’s banged up secondary.
Fades:
I don’t see how anyone can start either Justin Herbert (@KC) or Bo Nix (vs. SEA) right now, and especially when they have bad matchups, as is the case this week. Too many QBs are outscoring them each week. It’s been ugly, folks. Among QBs who’ve started at least three games, Nix is currently the QB25 and Herbert is the QB29. If you drafted one of them to be your starter, (a) I’m sorry, and (b) I hope Plan B is in effect.
Where is the Texans’ vaunted defense this season? They played much better last week, but that was against Cam Ward and the Titans. The Jaguars will be a much sterner test. I think they’ll give Trevor Lawrence (vs. HOU) some problems in the London game. He’s not a sit for me, but I have him outside my Top-10 this week.
Bryce Young (@PHI) has been fantastic this season, and he’s well-rested coming off a Bye. I don’t love him at Philly this week. Their defense can collapse the pocket from the middle, which tends to give him the most problems, Philadelphia is a hostile place to play, and I expect the Eagles to be angry after blowing a win to Jacksonville at the buzzer.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Sam Darnold (@DEN), Tyson Bagent (@ATL, if he starts again), and Tyler Huntley (@CLE, ditto).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Three backs in absolute smash spots this week:
Kyren Williams (vs. ARI) was in strong consideration for Ride of the Week. He’s a stud, and the Rams should have their way with the overmatched Cardinals.
Javonte Williams (@GB) already has seven rushing TDs on the season and is facing a defense that has allowed the second most rushing TDs so far (eight) and the third most FPPG to the position.
Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. NYJ) won’t have to compete with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) this week, and he’s facing a Jets defense that’s in the Bottom-10 in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing RBs.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think will outperform their rankings are Jaylen Warren (@TB), Chuba Hubbard (@PHI), D’Andre Swift (@ATL), Cam Skattebo (vs. NO, most FPPG and TDs allowed to opposing RBs), Tony Pollard (vs. IND), and MarShawn Lloyd (vs. DAL).
Sleepers:
Dameon Pierce (vs. CAR) did very little last week to inspire confidence, but if Saquon Barkley can’t return, he’ll have plenty of volume (as the last man standing) against a Carolina defense that’s allowing 120 rushing yards per game and the fifth most FPPG to opposing backs. If Saquon is back, pretend you never read this.
Others to consider if you’re stuck: Blake Corum (vs. ARI, and he could get extended run if it’s a blowout), Brian Robinson, Jr. (vs. CHI), Kendre Miller (@NYG), and Mike Washington, Jr. (vs. BUF).
Fades:
I’d stay away from Jacory Croskey-Merritt (@SF)this week.
Woody Marks (@JAC), sounds good on paper with David Montgomery doubtful, but it’s a terrible matchup and the Texans have struggled to run the ball. Jacksonville is allowing a league-low 42 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, and the third fewest FPPG.
Quinshon Judkins (vs. BAL) is also a fade for me (if he plays).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, and CeeDee Lamb; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Six Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20: Malik Nabers (vs. NO, 20 targets last week, and back-to-back games with 100 yards and a TD), Mike Evans (vs. WAS, fourth most FPPG allowed to opposing WRs), Davante Adams (@ARI, who has allowed the most TDs (10) and seventh most FPPG to opposing WRs), Drake London (vs. CHI but only if Michael Penix, Jr. plays), Matthew Golden (vs. DAL), and Michael Wilson (@LAR), who really should be called the Crown Prince of Garbage Time.
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week — I like these guys as WR2/WR3 or Flex plays this week: Josh Downs (vs. TEN), and in the same game, Carnell Tate (@IND), and Germie Bernard (@TB).
Sleepers:
WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Tre Tucker (vs. BUF, allowing the most catches, second most yards, and most FPPG to opposing WRs), and in the same game, both Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. Xavier Worthy (vs. LAC) has been a massive disappointment since the start of last season, but he might be the only healthy WR for the Chiefs, so you can consider him too.
Fades:
Backup QBs are like ice cream – they come in a variety of flavors, and not all of them are good. In terms of how they impact the pass-catchers on their team, they range from potential rocket boosters like Jameis Winston or Drew Lock all the way down to fantasy poison like Cooper Rush or Mason Rudolph. Most fall somewhere in the middle, with less consistency than the starter. At the top of the article, I listed three starting QBs who could return this week. Whether they do will have a big impact on Zay Flowers (@CLE), Drake London (vs. CHI), and Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze (@ATL). I’m not saying to bench these players if their starting QB doesn’t go, but these are all cases where the dropoff from the starter is fairly significant, and you should take that into consideration.
Jaylen Waddle (@SEA) is a tough click right now, and especially against a defense as good as this one. I blame Bo Nix more than I blame him, but it’s been pretty ugly.
Emeka Egbuka (vs. PIT) is again a Fade for me, with Mayfield missing another start.
I’d wait on Marvin Harrison, Jr. (@JAC). My guess is he won’t play more than half of the snaps as he learns the offense.
Speaking of ugly, I can’t recommend any Chargers receivers (@KC) this week. Ladd McConkey is playing hurt, the line is once again a disaster, and the offense is broken. Also, the Chiefs are allowing the fewest yards and FPPG to opposing wide receivers. They’re the only team that has yet to yield a TD to the position.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who should be starting options this season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include D.K. Metcalf (@TB, and he’s just not getting it done, with just one TD and low volume and yardage totals most weeks), Courtland Sutton (@SEA), Terry McLaurin (@SF, seventh fewest FPPG allowed to opposing receivers), and Romeo Doubs (vs. NYJ, and good luck guessing which New England receiver will Pop in a given week (there’s a joke in there, let’s see who gets it)).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Tyler Warren; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Give me some Tucker Kraft (vs. DAL). The targets are pretty concentrated in Green Bay, and he’s part of that, with 20 looks over the past three weeks. He only has one TD on the season so far – I guaranteed that one back in Week 4 and I’ll make the same call this week.
Isaiah Likely (@NO), come on down! Likely has been all the Giants could have hoped for when John Harbaugh brought him over. He’s got 25 targets across the last two games. That’s Bowers/McBride type volume. He’s also the TE3 on the young season, at 13.8 FPPG, and that trails only those two studs. One more week of Jameis feeding him all over the field and he joins the elites list.
Other TEs in the Top-15 who I’m high on this week: Juwan Johnson (@NYG, and he’s a weekly start regardless of matchup), Pat Freiermuth (@TB, and he “just catches touchdowns”), Dallas Goedert (vs. CAR, seventh most FPPG yielded to opposing TEs, and he should play more snaps this week), and Tyler Higbee (vs. ARI, who allow the fifth most FPPG to opposing TEs).
Sleepers:
TEs to consider if you’re stuck (ranked outside the Top-15 this week): Jake Ferguson (@GB) and A.J. Barner (@DEN).
Fades:
For the third straight week, I’m issuing a Fade call on Dalton Kincaid (@LV). When something keeps hitting, stick with it. It’s a good matchup, but he’s put up three straight stinkers including back-to-back games with one catch for seven yards. He’s too hard to trust in lineups at the moment.
Colston Loveland (@ATL), wherefore art thou? After showing signs of life in Week 4 (6-57-0), he went back to being mostly invisible in Week 5 (2-19-0). His next TD will be his first of the season. The colossal disappointment continues, and I can’t click him — yet.
Another weekly punching bag makes my list, again: Kyle Pitts, Sr. (vs. CHI). He had a decent game last week that included his first TD of the season, but I still don’t trust him, and the Bears are defending the position really well (third fewest catches and second fewest FPPG allowed to the position, and no TDs surrendered yet).
That’s all I’ve got this week. Good luck in Week 6!
***This column appears each Thursday here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants. ***
