Which team is projected as better? On 9 April, FanGraphs projected the Phillies to win more games (89 vs 81). Nevertheless, both teams have significant odds of reaching the playoffs (68% and 35%). And either team could win this series.
Why cheer for the Diamondbacks? The Diamondbacks values include don’t cheat by taking performance enhancing substances.
“…Rojas became the eighth Phillie to be suspended for PED use since 2009. He’s the ninth, if you include Max Kepler, who is a free agent but played
with the Phillies last season and was suspended for 80 games in January after he tested positive for a PED.” — Marcus Hayes, The Philadelphia Inquirer, March 2026
The recent three players (per Wikipedia):
- Jose Alvarado, May 2025, Exogenous Testosterone
- Max Kepler, January 2026, Epitrenbolone
- Johan Rojas, March 2026, Boldenone
“They are three totally different situations. So no, I do not think it’s an issue.” — Rob Thomson, Phillies Manager
My view is the Phillies will not make improvements until they stop making excuses.
How good is the Diamondbacks offense? At Chase, against the Tigers, the Diamondbacks batters were better than last season (5.67 vs 5.07 runs per game). That is meaningful because the Tigers pitching staff was ranked fifth best in the Majors. Can the Diamondbacks batters do just as well against a pitching staff ranked better than the Tigers (third best vs fifth best)? Adding to the difficulty is that this series is an away series.
Phillies Pitcher to Watch.
Andrew Painter. As the Phillies number 2 prospect, this season he made his debut in the Majors. Let’s look at his abbreviated story.
After Tommy John Surgery in July of 2023, he missed the 2023 and 2024 seasons. In 2025, he pitched in AAA.
“Last season [2025], Painter’s arm angle dropped slightly. He addressed the issue in the offseason and has continued to do so in camp. The team’s pitching coaches believe a return to his former (higher) arm angle will bring back his control and command.” — Jim Salisbury, Match 2026
In spring training, one indication of improved control and command was his 8 strikeouts with only 2 walks. Another indication was his .209 OBP and .293 SLG. Data from Baseball Savant.
“I felt pretty comfortable out there. Right when I toed the rubber, I felt in control of the game. It didn’t speed up on me. That’s the big thing, just take deep breaths and not allow the game to speed up on you.” — Andrew Painter, March 2026
In his debut, he pitched 5.1 innings with 1 earned run. His 8 strikeouts exceeded his 1 walk. Two positives were his 8.3 hard-hit percentage and his 0.57 expected ERA. Data from Baseball Savant.
Pitching Matchups.
Friday, 3:40 PM MST.
Michael Soroka. In his first two starts of the season he allowed a total of 1 earned run in 10 innings.
Last season, opponents did not score any runs in his last 6.2 innings pitched. In his first two starts of the season, he extended that streak to 13.1 innings before a earned run was scored.
There is much to admire about Michael Soroka’s consistency.
Jesus Luzardo. His first two starts of the season were at two extremes: First he allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings against the Rangers; Then he allowed 1 earned run in 6.2 innings at Coors. What will happen in this start?
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 10:05 PM MST.
Brandon Pfaadt. In his first game of the season, the positive was that five of his six innings he held the Tigers to three batters. The negative was the inning when the Tigers scored 5 earned runs. In his second game, he allowed 3 earned runs.
In the Snakepit article, one of my wagers was that Pfaadt will total more than 10 wins this season. Will this be his first win? I’m feeling somewhat confident.
Taijuan Walker. In 2017-2018, he started 31 games for the Diamondbacks. His ERA+ was excellent (ranged from 124 to 135).
After that, he pitched for four teams, the latest is the Phillies. His performance seemed to bounce between average seasons and excellent seasons.
In his first game of the season, the Nationals scored 4 earned runs against him in the first inning. In his second game, the Rockies scored 3 earned runs against him in the first inning. Perhaps this season will be an average season for him.
This matchup of starting pitchers is slight advantage Diamondbacks.
Sunday, 10:35 AM MST.
Zac Gallen. In the season opener, he held the Dodgers scoreless for four innings. That’s big. (although the Dodgers scored in the fifth inning – very few elite pitchers can keep the Dodgers scoreless for long). Then he pitched six scoreless innings against the Tigers. Then he allowed 1 earned run in 5 innings against the Mets. My expectation is that Zac Gallen will pitch at least 4 scoreless innings. After that, he may give up a run or two.
Andrew Painter. As a Diamondbacks fan, I hope the Diamondbacks batters find ways to prevent Andrew Painter from repeating his amazing performance in his debut in the Majors.
In his second game, in the third inning the Giants got 4 hits (3 earned runs) showing that Painter is human.
In any case, remember to look for fans dressed in white coveralls! “A few fans in right field dressed in white coveralls and called themselves ‘Painter’s Painters’.” — Matt Gelb
This matchup of starting pitchers is even, perhaps with a very slight edge Diamondbacks.
