Arseny Gritsyuk has played his last game for the New Jersey Devils this season. It’s a shame, but that’s just how it is after the club announced that he will be undergoing season-ending surgery after suffering an injury against the Dallas Stars on March 24. It’s an obvious disappointment for Gritsyuk, who proved in his rookie season that he not only belonged in the NHL, but that he could have a long and prosperous future as an NHL regular.
But now the question becomes…just how prosperous are we talking
here?
Now that Gritsyuk is done playing hockey this season, he has effectively become a restricted free agent. Due to his age, his entry-level contract only covered his rookie season, and now if the Devils want to keep him in red and black, they’ll need to come to terms on a new deal soon. There are a few different paths the two sides can travel down, from a one-year “prove it” deal to a short-term bridge deal to a long-term contract that would keep him in New Jersey through his entire prime. Every offseason always has a handful of key storylines to watch. For the Devils, there are some larger issues that need resolution like the state of the front office, but as far as the players themselves, Gritsyuk’s immediate future will be one of the top stories of the summer.
With the Devils missing the postseason once again, we will have plenty of time to discuss the offseason and the future at large once Game 82 comes and goes later this month. So we won’t be doing a deep dive on projections for Gritsyuk’s next contract today. Instead, we’ll simply discuss how Gritsyuk’s injury could impact the contract that he needs by next October.
Although, worryingly, the correct wording of that sentence might be how Gritsyuk’s injuries – plural – could impact his next contract. Because here’s the thing: aside from this latest, more serious ailment, Gritsyuk also missed four games in December with an injury. That obviously is not a big concern by itself, as the vast majority of players across the league miss a handful of games each year. But in the larger context of Gritsyuk’s rookie campaign, that four-game absence raises bigger red flags in my opinion.
The first, obvious one is the fact that Gritsyuk just finished a season in which he’s missed two different chunks of games with two different injuries. His 66 games played this year is close enough to a full season for it to not raise alarms on the surface, but 16 games missed is not nothing, especially considering it’s multiple injuries. Once is a fluke, twice is a trend. I tried looking up Gritsyuk’s injury history once he became a regular in the KHL, but it was hard to pin down. According to his stats at Elite Prospects, he did miss significant time in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, but whether that was due to injury or other reasons is not something I am 100% sure of. I do believe injuries were the main factor, but I just want to give that disclaimer. Before I go any further, I do want to make it clear right now that I am not hitting Gritsyuk with the dreaded “injury-prone” label. I’m not even close to that. All I’m saying is that it’s enough of a data point to bear monitoring, and perhaps enough to take into account as the Devils prepare to make an offer this summer.
The second thing to consider here is the fact that, once Gritsyuk returned from his brief injury stint on December 21, his play took a bit of a nose dive. In his first 31 games, Gritsyuk registered seven goals and 16 total points. He then missed the next four contests, and upon his return on December 21, he collected just one goal and two points total over his next 14 games. The numbers over at Hockey Stat Cards back up the notion that Gritsyuk was just not himself once he came back, with his average Game Score tumbling way, way down over that time.
Now, honestly, this could be spun as a positive if you look at it a certain way. After about a month of subpar play, from January 20 to March 24 (which covered 21 games played) Gritsyuk looked more like himself again. His average Game Score shot up from 0.08 to 0.72, and he posted five goals and 13 points in that span. It’s worth noting that this rejuvenation coincides almost exactly with Lenni Hameenaho getting called up and the line of Gritsyuk, Hameenaho, and Cody Glass coming together. That trio performed very well when given some run in the middle of the season, and although it can be difficult to properly assign credit when a line plays well, Hameenaho and Glass struggling since Gritsyuk went down certainly makes it seem like Gritsyuk was the driving force on that line. Prior to Sunday’s game, Glass and Hameenaho both had only one point apiece in the six games since Gritsyuk’s injury, while Glass’ average Game Score had tumbled from 0.59 to 0.11 and Hameenaho’s had gone from 0.27 to a very disappointing -0.28. Those average Game Scores went up a little after Sunday’s 3-0 win in Montreal, and Glass even scored a pretty goal, but that was the first major sign of life from those two in a while. Obviously it would be better for the Devils as a whole if Glass and Hameenaho continued to perform without Gritsyuk, but at the very least, we can look at this as a potential data point that Gritsyuk might be the real deal.
But then again, that’s a problem by itself. New Jersey has it’s fair share of players that can’t seem to stay healthy in recent years. That list obviously starts with Jack Hughes, but it also includes key contributors like Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Jonas Siegenthaler, and Glass. While not on the same level as those others, Nico Hischier has dealt with a slew of injuries over the years, and Jacob Markstrom has battled poor health since his time in New Jersey too. The Devils already rely on a decent amount of players who have trouble staying healthy, so is it really that wise to commit to Gritsyuk too? Especially if an entire line only functions if that one player is in the lineup, otherwise things all fall apart? Again, I’m not saying Gritsyuk is injury-prone yet, only that the Devils might perceive him as a risky bet for a long-term pact given all this info.
So with all that said, let’s circle back to the question we asked at the outset: How much should Gritsyuk’s injury affect his next contract? Well it should certainly be a factor, that’s for sure. Logic would dictate that it would work against Gritsyuk signing a more lucrative deal than if he played 82 games. There’s also his first injury, his performance prior to that, his poor play upon his return, his upswing about a month after his initial absence, and his previous injury history in the KHL to consider. His season-ending injury does not matter a ton by itself, but adding all this additional context does mean a decent amount.
If I were to try and answer the question myself, I think the biggest way Gritsyuk’s latest injury would impact me would be to move me firmly into the camp of wanting to sign him to a bridge deal. I understand there is plenty of value in buying low and signing/extending players before they really take off. Some of the best organizations in the league do this a lot. But the risk is obviously pretty high when going down that road. For much of this season, I was definitely in favor of signing Gritsyuk to as lengthy of a deal as he would accept. A max-term extension would’ve gotten my seal of approval, that’s how much he impressed me. But now that he’s suffered not only another injury, but one that requires surgery, I think the overall body of work going back to his KHL days gives me pause as far as committing to him for the long haul. If I could have my way, I would sign him to a two- to three-year deal. That comes with risk as well, because if Gritsyuk explodes in those years then his price tag goes way up. But with the salary cap skyrocketing, and with New Jersey’s balance sheet actually becoming relatively clean two to three years down the road, I think that even it Gritsyuk becomes a top tier player, New Jersey will have the ability to retain him on a longer, more expensive deal down the road. And besides, that would be a great problem to have, now wouldn’t it?
This is what I would do. What I actually think will happen is a different story. But for now, I do think Gritsyuk’s latest injury might sway some folks in Devils management toward bridging him instead of signing him long term. We almost certainly won’t get any resolution on Gritsyuk until after the Devils sort out the future of their front office later this offseason, and I can see that having the impact of forcing a Gritsyuk signing to come very late in the year, ala Luke Hughes’ deal this past autumn. But a new contract has to come eventually, and when it does, this is what I think I’d like to see, and what I think has become most likely.
Now that I’ve had my say, what do you think of Gritsyuk’s situation? Do you agree that his surgery makes it more likely he goes short rather than long on his next contract? How much of a concern is his injury history for you? What will you be expecting from Gritsyuk next season? As always, thanks for reading!
