Wait, the Green Bay Packers went down?! I mean, it wasn’t the best win ever, but it was still a win, right?
Yes, it was, and the Packers are still third overall, which is very good! But it wasn’t the most
convincing win while the Lions were beating the stuffings out of a good, fun Buccaneers team. Green Bay is still good on efficiency metrics where they’re sixth in DVOA (Detroit is second) and fifth in EPA (Detroit is fourth), but the scouts at PFF and the betting markets are starting to notice that, well, the Lions look quite a bit better even if they did lose head to head.
You see that same confidence developing around Kansas City even though they’re just 4-3 and third place in their division. The Chiefs’ three losses are all one-score affairs while every win has been at least 13 points. KC destroyed the Raiders last week, and even though on the surface the Chiefs may not look as good as last year, they’re quietly much, much better. Good teams still tend to suffer from close-game regression, but good teams also beat the heck out of the bad teams, and so KC is now the odds-on favorite to win it all, fifth in DVOA, and third in EPA.
Because I’ve been traveling and I’m a bit late to CALC today, I did incorporate Thursday Night Football, which now puts the Bears ahead of the Vikings, and sees Minnesota as in serious trouble. Of course you don’t really need numbers to tell you that. Minnesota is in a tough spot because their defense is truly trop notch, and they’re outstanding in the skill positions, but injuries and a small talent drain have sapped their offensive line, and both of their quarterbacks have been horrific at dealing with pressure. It’s honestly a very “Bears” problem, and having Bear problems is how you find yourself behind them.
The Big Movers
Washington: -9.4 from last week
Jayden Daniels was amazing last year, but the big concern with Daniels was never about his talent. The man runs like Derrick Henry while being build like Todd Pinkston (if you don’t know, just google a picture of Todd Pinkston). Daniels has played well, but he’s had major issues staying on the field, and Marcus Mariota was again forced into action last week. With the rest of the division surging (even the Giants!) things look a bit grim in Washington.
Tampa: -8.39
The Bucs got smoked by Detroit, which is hardly the biggest NFL sin, but there’s also some creakiness showing up on the injury report, especially at the skill positions where Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Baker Mayfield are all varying levels of banged up. No team is more dependent on their skill position players, and so injuries have an outsized impact here. Tampa is still in control of the division, still fun, and will probably be fine, but they’re worth keeping an eye on.
Cincinnati: +7.44
Speaking of skill position dependent teams, Joe Flacco looked awful on the Browns but plug the wily veteran into the Chase/Higgins offense and look out. Flacco’s not going to win you any games by himself, especially not these days, but as an extremely smart steward of a talented offense, the man can deal, and he still has the gun attached to his right shoulder.
Kansas City: +18.4
We covered KC up top, but this was easily the biggest move of the week and vaulted the Chiefs to the top. Not surprising, but annoying.
Indianapolis: +7.67
The Colts have been (justifiably) fighting the “fluke” label all season, but a convincing win over the Chargers (the same Chargers who just smoked the Vikings) may answer some of those questions. Indy is 6-1, their offensive line is one of the league’s elite units, their defense is plenty good enough to support the shockingly elite offense, and they have everyone in Chicago yelling about how they let Tyler Warren get away. Anyway, on to the rankings.
