With Saturday’s Wild Card game being the third meeting between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears over the span of 6 weeks, I have a pretty good feel for who these teams are and what we’re going to see them do this weekend. Sure, there will be wrinkles and variations and changeups and all that jazz — it is the playoffs, after all — but I certainly don’t anticipate any wholesale changes for either team.
I’ll likely get into a more in-depth attack plan in the next couple of days, but, for today,
I wanted to take a look at a very specific passing concept we’re likely to see at least once this weekend. Why? Because the Packers have run it once in each game against the Bears this year, and it has been effective.
Some of the details are slightly different of course, but both plays occurred out of similar formations in the 1st quarter.
The concept is a version of Dragon (slant/flat), with the slant route pushing a touch deeper than they commonly run it.
Week 14: 2nd & 5, 4:47 remaining in the 1st quarter
The Packers are in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) in a split-gun formation (Red LT Clamp, I believe). They’re in a 2×1 formation, with Dragon coming on the right side of the formation. Christian Watson [9] is running a deep slant route from his isolated position on the right, while Josh Jacobs [8] is running a flat route from the backfield. (The route Watson is running is simply a Slant, while we typically see this concept run with a Now, which would be a one-step slant.)
The defender over Watson is playing close to the line, which could indicate Man coverage, especially combined with the single-high safety (per FTN, the Bears played Man Coverage 36.1% of the time, the 7th highest rate in the league).
At the snap, Jordan Love [10] looks down the middle of the field. The safety is dropping straight back, Jaquan Brisker [9] is bailing to pick up Jacobs in the flat and the middle of the defense is fading to the other side of the line.
When Love hits the top of his drop, Brisker is clear of the throwing lane, so he fires to Watson.
Easy pitch-and-catch for 19 yards.
Week 16: 2nd & 10, 00:24 remaining in the 1st quarter
The Packers are now in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and they start out in a 3×1 formation, but Jayden Reed [11] shifts to the backfield pre-snap, putting the Packers in a split-gun formation. It’s the same formation as the previous time we saw this, only flipped (Red RT Clamp). Which means now we get Dragon on the left.
Romeo Doubs [87] is running the Slant from his isolated position on the outside, while Reed is running the flat route from the backfield.
The Bears are not in Man coverage, nor are they showing Man pre-snap. With the single-high safety and the off coverage on the boundary (that bails post-snap), this looks like Cover 3.
Even with that coverage, it plays out the same. Once again, Love checks the middle of the field post-snap. Tremaine Edmunds [49] is dropping to the middle and reading Love’s eyes, while Brisker bails to cover the flat. The combination of Edmunds holding to the middle and Brisker bailing leaves a nice hole in the zone.
Love hits his back up and fires to Doubs for 20 yards.
Now, if I see that, you can be sure the Bears see that, too. And if I see that and the Bears see that, you can be sure the Packers see it, too. So what can be done about it?
You can run roughly what you’ve run the last couple times against that similar look and believe it’ll work out okay. If not, you move on from the slant and work to the other side of the field.
But if you think the defense sees the formation and checks to a call, looking to outsmart you and pick up an interception? They may drop that safety down into the window. They’d want the rest to look the same because they want Love to throw the slant. So the LB is hanging to the middle and the flat defender is bailing.
If you think the defense is going to check to that, then you make a slight change and try to hit a huge play.
Albums listened to: Lucy Dacus – Forever is a Feeling; Sister Ray Davies – Holy Island; Constant Smiles – Moonflowers; Halsey – Badlands
