While the Virginia Cavaliers (6-1, 3-0 ACC) were relishing in their latest dramatic victory last Saturday night — a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback over Washington State, capped by a game-winning safety
— the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-4, 0-2 ACC) were across the country in Berkeley, California, seemingly on the verge of their first big win of the Bill Belichick era.
Instead, the Tar Heels’ nightmare of a season took another turn for the worse as wide receiver Nathan Leacock lost a fumble at the one-yard line on what would have been a go-ahead touchdown with under four minutes to play in the fourth quarter.
No night better encapsulates the direction of these two programs. UVA, which continues to find ways to pull victory from the jaws of defeat, has already secured bowl eligibility and rose yet again in this week’s AP Poll. UNC’s goal-line snafu, on the other hand, proved fatal in its 21-18 loss to Cal, as Belichick (who’s already dealing with rumors of a buy-out less than halfway through his first season) continues to search for his first win over a power-conference opponent.
One week later, UVA and UNC will square off in Chapel Hill as Tony Elliott and the ’Hoos hope to stay undefeated in ACC play and avoid a let-down performance against the floundering Tar Heels. Kickoff for the 130th installment of the “South’s Oldest Rivalry” is set for 12:00 PM EST, with coverage on ACC Network.
To get you set for Saturday, here are two players to watch out for, one key matchup that will prove decisive, and one prediction.
Players to watch
QB Gio Lopez
A 6-foot redshirt sophomore who transferred to UNC from South Alabama this past offseason, quarterback Gio Lopez is the first Tar Heel to know ahead of Saturday. Though UNC has the fewest passing yards in the ACC by a wide margin this season, the performance of Lopez will still go a long way in determining if the Tar Heels can put up a fight.
Lopez isn’t likely to carve up the Cavaliers through the air — he’s last among qualified ACC signal-callers with just 119.4 passing yards per game, and he has thrown just three passing touchdowns in five starts — but his strengths lie in his ability to move within the pocket, throw on the run, and turn to his legs to extend drives. In each of UNC’s two wins this season (at Charlotte and home vs. Richmond), Lopez has rushed for at least 40 yards.
Lopez’s shaky start to the season can also be attributed to a laundry list of injuries. He was in a car accident shortly before the Tar Heels’ first game, left the opener vs. TCU due to an injury, and was carted to the locker room against UCF.
Though Lopez has only had to miss one game, he’s been less than 100% for most of the season. Lopez said last weekend’s game at Cal was the first time he’s felt like himself health-wise this season, and the Tar Heels were able to give the Golden Bears a scare in Berkeley. The ’Hoos need to take Lopez seriously despite his lackluster counting stats and put an emphasis on keeping him in the pocket.
LB Andrew Simpson
The Tar Heels’ defense, which finished atop the ACC in sacks in 2024, is now dead last in the conference with just eight sacks through six games. Linebacker Andrew Simpson has two of them while also serving as a solid run-stopper — his 33 total tackles are second-most on the team.
Simpson is a versatile weapon for the Tar Heels’ defense. He has six tackles for loss on the season and has the speed to keep up with tight ends and running backs in pass coverage. Though UNC’s defense has been shaky, Simpson has been a strength for the unit. A redshirt junior who transferred from Boise State this past offseason, Simpson could be a game-wrecker if the ’Hoos aren’t prepared.
One key matchup
UVA vs. the hype train
Tony Elliott has led Virginia to its best start to a season in nearly two decades, securing bowl eligibility with last weekend’s win over Washington State and climbing up to No. 16 in this week’s AP Poll (UVA’s highest ranking since 2007).
With a 3-0 record in conference play and an incredibly favorable remaining schedule, the ’Hoos have a clear path to the ACC championship game (and maybe even the College Football Playoff) and have drawn a lot of national attention as of late.
But as the first half against WSU proved, UVA can’t sleepwalk its way to Charlotte on December 6th. Though Virginia is favored in four of its remaining five games (including by 10.5 points against UNC), nothing comes easy — especially on the road against a conference opponent.
The moment the ’Hoos start buying into their own hype is the moment they’re primed to slip up against a team like North Carolina. This season has been one to forget for the Tar Heels, but there’s no doubt they’ll be fired up to play spoiler against the Cavaliers.
Don’t forget, just two seasons ago, an unranked Virginia squad defeated then-No. 10 UNC (its first-ever road win over a top-10 opponent) to put a damper on its promising season. The ’Hoos can’t afford to overlook any opponent — stay sharp and take care of business.
One prediction
Virginia got the best of both worlds last week against Washington State. Sure, a stress-free blowout win would have been nice. But the ’Hoos avoided disaster, came out of Scott Stadium with a win, and gave Tony Elliott plenty of fuel to use to reignite his team’s fire.
I think Virginia will learn from the first half of last week’s game and come out firing on all cylinders inside Kenan Memorial Stadium. We should see renewed energy from the offense, which was shaky against the Cougars, and I think the ’Hoos will top 30 points for the seventh time this season.
Behind an offensive line that’s allowed just five sacks this season and against a UNC defense that has generated an ACC-worst six sacks, Chandler Morris should have all day to go through his reads and dice up the Tar Heels’ secondary.
Final score prediction: UVA 31, UNC 18
