Having a good feel for each player’s value on the trade market is an exercise NBA front offices would routinely perform. For this week’s Reacts, we wanted to see where the Brew Hoop community landed on who leads the team in trade value. In this article, I expanded on that exercise by ranking the entire team and even separating the players into tiers. Tiers mean you can make a reasonable case for any player within a tier to be ranked above or below another player within that same tier.
Crucially, these
rankings are completely subjective and—unlike Rick Berry’s DOPE Index—I wasn’t working off some quantitative formula. However, I did find myself considering four main factors when constructing these rankings, and they were:
- Raw ability
- Age
- Contract size (how much money do they make annually?)
- Contract status (what is the length of their contract, and where are they in that contract?)
Remember, this is all relative to each player. For example, just because a player doesn’t have the potential to yield a first-round pick, that doesn’t mean that guy must be ranked below another player who does. Also, none of this means that the Bucks will or should trade any player; it’s merely a thought exercise. Anyway, without further ado, here’s how I ranked the squad.
Tier 1
1. Ryan Rollins
At first, I thought the top spot was close between Rollins and Burries, but after thinking it through, Rollins clearly takes that spot. The 24-year-old has blossomed into a legit two-way lead guard—who helps you win basketball games in so many ways—on a $4m (!) contract. You rarely find guys that impactful to winning while making that little money. If the Bucks put Rollins on the trade block right now, they would undoubtedly get a good first-round pick, and maybe even two “bad” first-round picks. Now, I feel quite confident that if the Bucks pay up to retain Rollins next summer, he will be displaced from the top spot (almost regardless of how he plays). For now, though, this is a no-brainer selection at one.
2. Brayden Burries
That leaves Brayden Burries at two, an easy choice. Right this second, coming off an All-Summer League First Team performance, Brayden Burries’ value is through the roof. Now, no team would entertain trading their lottery pick—having not yet registered a single NBA minute—regardless of how they played in Summer League, but yes, for this exercise, Burries has the second-most trade value on the Bucks.
Tier 2
3. Kel’el Ware
Kel’el Ware being in this spot is interesting because he benefits from what I like to call the “mystery box bump.” Ware is only entering the third year of his rookie deal, and there is still major intrigue as to what his ceiling is. He could develop into a unicorn-like centre who’s a matchup nightmare for opposing bigs, or he could completely peter out into an empty-calories guy with attitudinal problems. Ware is a mystery box, but right at this moment, he would fetch a decent first-round pick if traded. A team would bet on the raw talent, for sure. He may be worth two first-round picks in a year, or he may only be worth some seconds.
Tier 3
4. Kasparas Jakucionis
Another player who falls somewhat into the aforementioned mystery box bump group, Kasparas Jakucionis edges out Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez by the slimmest of margins because he benefits from being largely untested. He’s coming off a rookie year with the Heat in which he played decently in the opportunities he got, but those were few and far between. So on the one hand, he’s got runs on the board as a 19-year-old rookie in the NBA—which puts him above Nate Ament, for example—but on the other hand, he hasn’t necessarily wowed in those chances. Additionally, Jakucionis is entering the second year of his rookie contract, which naturally gives him high trade value. Granted, KJ’s trade value definitely took a hit following his disappointing Summer League performance, but you can rationalise that by him having played for Lithuania just a week prior, having to deal with the chaos of being traded, etc.
5. Tyler Herro
Next is Tyler Herro. Obviously, Herro is the most accomplished player on this list and would be the most “sure thing” in a trade (maybe except for Rollins). If a team were to trade for Herro, they’d know what they are getting; it’s way less of a stab in the dark than it would be going for Ware or Jakucionis. Herro is a good NBA player. Sure, he’s bad on defence and has some quirks that rub people the wrong way, but this is a career 20-PPG scorer who shoots nearly 40% from three on volume. His contract is palatable right now at about $30m per season, but of course, he’s in the final year of that deal and will want a contract that will probably age poorly, which naturally makes it hard to have him much higher than fifth.
6. Jaime Jaquez Jr.
I was very close to putting Jaime Jaquez Jr. above Tyler Herro, but at the end of the day, he just doesn’t have the runs on the board as Herro does. Coming into the league as an older rookie after spending four years at UCLA, Jaquez has much less mystery box appeal. However, it’s inarguable that he’s reached a level where you’re almost certain that he’ll be a solid NBA player at the very least. I should note that Jaquez is in the last year of his rookie deal, so any team trading for him would need to be prepared to pay him next summer. This feels like the right spot.
7. Nate Ament
Nate Ament is another player who benefits from the mystery box bump. Being a “boom-or-bust prospect,” Ament has an extremely wide range of outcomes. At this point, that puts him right about here on the rankings. Like Ware, we could re-rank this in two years, and Ament could be way down the bottom or way up the top. For now, coming off a so-so Summer League but considering the bigger picture, seventh feels about right. I am confident that even after Vegas, a rival team would give up something of relatively high value to get the Virginia native if the Bucks explored trading him.
Tier 4
8. Ousmane Dieng
OK, so relative to the value Dieng held when the Bucks picked him up, his stock has increased significantly. Ous has a lot going for him. First, he’s a former lottery pick and still just 23; teams love taking chances on young guys with pedigree. Second, he just put together a solid season in the first real chance he got to actually play consistently, which, at the very least, is enticing. And finally, his contract is solid at just under $6m per year for three years with a team option for the final season. I reckon a good number of rebuilding teams would happily part with some decent assets to get a longer look at Dieng on that deal. Props, Jon Horst.
9. AJ Green
Green has become a solid NBA role player who will check into the game and do his job: nail three-pointers—both off the catch and on the move—and be passable on defence. There isn’t much more upward mobility other than that, but lots of NBA teams need guys with this skill set. You can see how Green’s dynamism as a shooter separates him from a guy like Taurean Prince, who can really only shoot while stationary. On top of that, Green is on a totally palatable contract with an average annual salary of a tick over $11m.
10. Myles Turner
Here we get to Myles Turner. Look, this contract didn’t look great after last season—and it still doesn’t look all that good—but considering what some centres got paid in free agency this summer, ~$27m AAV doesn’t look as bad as it once did. Still, ESPN’s Ben Golliver recently reported that the Bucks have been trying to shop Turner this summer but haven’t found a suitor willing to take on his contract, validating his spot at 10 (for now). Crucially, I want to make clear that if MT performs at the level he is capable of in a new system, I could see him yielding a late first-round pick at the deadline. I don’t see AJ or Ous having that potential, but I also don’t consider either of their contracts to have negative value like I do Turner’s right now—still three years left to run.
Tier 5
11. Jericho Sims
It might come as a shock that I have Jericho Sims this high—and I realise that I’m probably an outlier—but I reckon that if Sims starts the season well, he’ll have positive trade value at the deadline. In contrast, the two blokes below, in my mind, would have even or negative value. This means I think a team might trade a second-round pick in the, say, 35-45 range for Sims in exchange for half a season with him making the minimum. Crucially, Sims on the minimum makes trading for him much easier than trading for Kuzma or LeVert, increasing his value. Our friends over at the Silver Screen and Roll wrote about reports of the LA Lakers’ potential interest in the 27-year-old.
Tier 6
12. Caris LeVert
The case for LeVert over Kuzma in this spot is simple: they’re both wings on expiring contracts and not in the Bucks’ plans, but LeVert makes about $5m less ($14.5m compared to $19.4m). There’s not a whole lot more you need to say, really. Neither player will be highly coveted by the team trading for them, but LeVert is easier to deal.
13. Kyle Kuzma
Read above, LOL. No, well, you could make the case that Kuzma has more trade value than LeVert because if the Bucks need to get up to a certain number to make a trade legal, Kuz’s contract is obviously more useful. In general, though, a ~$15m contract is more tradeable.
14. Kevin Porter Jr.
Eh, while Porter can certainly help the Bucks win games—if that is all they care about this season—he’s probably not in their long-term plans, considering the slew of guards acquired over the offseason. Other teams will know this and hold leverage over the Bucks, which will lower his trade value. Of course, something else that will lower that value is KPJ’s off-court history, like it or not. Look, Porter might fetch you a second-round pick if an experienced team needs a guy who can come in and immediately offer them some juice, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Tier 7
15. Bogoljub Markovic
Maybe you can convince yourself Bogi has some trade value if you rely on priors, since many draft analysts ranked him higher than where he ended up being taken—including our very own Finn Kuehl. Ultimately, though, he’s proven nothing of substance yet at the NBA level (and obviously it’s very early). If anything, Bogi’s stock has decreased since he was drafted. Now, I’m not saying the Bucks would even be interested in trading Markovic at just 21 years old, but if they were, they wouldn’t get much at this moment in time.
16. Pete Nance
Look, Pete Nance is a good player—and he happens to possess a skill set that has been sorely needed on this Bucks team—but at the end of the day, he’s a 26-year-old journeyman. I don’t doubt Nance is an NBA player, and teams would jump at the chance to sign him if the Bucks cut ties, but no franchise is going to give up assets for Nance. But hey, maybe that changes a year from now if he can really cement himself in Milwaukee’s rotation. I personally don’t see where the minutes are, but it’s not implausible.
Tier 8
17. Gary Trent Jr.
Self-explanatory. This contract became one of the league’s worst the moment the ink dried, and absolutely everyone—including Jon Horst—knew it would be. We all understand what happened here; there’s no point belabouring it. Anyway, the Bucks might need to attach Brayden Burries and one of those Heat picks to incentivise another team to take this contract (I’m kidding… I think). Gary, get used to those Milwaukee winters, brother; you’ll be here a while… if your contract isn’t voided, that is.
Alright, now that I’ve done my rankings, give me yours. Or just let me know where you agree or disagree. The players I was most unsure of were Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr., Ousmane Dieng, and Myles Turner. I might make this an annual thing—we’ll see.
