The Buffalo Bills finally lost a game, joining every other previously unbeaten team to finally experience defeat in Week 5. Buffalo’s offense looked out of sorts all night, and committed too many costly turnovers to overcome late in action. The team’s string of 30-point-plus games came to an end, as did running back James Cook’s streak of 100-yard games, and more significantly his touchdown-streak came to an end in game 10.
It was a costly loss to an AFC East opponent looking to get back on top, but
the Bills are probably still the best team in the AFC until records and direct matchups prove things otherwise. That said, Buffalo did drop in several of this week’s power rankings, while some left them were they were from last week (a sign that overreactions aren’t warranted yet).
There are plenty of questions to ask about this year’s Bills, from play calling to on-field personnel, and coaching decisions. Buffalo needs to continue taking advantage of a softer schedule while they have it, a true opportunity to correct mistakes that should be remedied by the time November rolls around.
The Bills still haven’t played a complete game, yet even in their ugliest outing it took a field goal in the final seconds for the New England Patriots to secure their winning lead.
What does all of that mean in terms of Week 5 power rankings? Let’s dive in, first by taking a look at ESPN’s playoff odds for the Bills in four key metrics. Buffalo dropped across all four metrics, yet they still retain the best odds in all categories.
The Bills’ odds of making the playoffs now sits at 92% (was 97%); their odds of winning the division are now down t0 just 70% (was 89%); earning a bye in the playoffs dropped to 30% (was 50%); while making it to the Super Bowl dropped to 22% (was 27%).
Moving on to thoughts from national pundits about Buffalo’s loss to New England with a now tidy refrain in this space…
Let’s live in the present and dive into the latest NFL power rankings, passing the mic to hierarchy experts around the country. Ready?
ESPN: 2 (unchanged from Week 5)
“Fantasy surprise: TE Dalton Kincaid”
“This could also be running back James Cook, but Kincaid has been the bigger eye-opener. He has a more significant role and the second-most fantasy points among tight ends (66.7 so far this season) after being ranked No. 15 at the position in ESPN Fantasy’s preseason projections. In his third season, Kincaid already has a career high in receiving touchdowns (three) and was targeted six times in three of the five games. A healthy Kincaid and a growing relationship with quarterback Josh Allen are positives for fantasy managers — even in an offense that spreads around the ball.” — Alaina Getzenberg
NFL.com: 3 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“Having seen the Eagles lose earlier in the day, the Bills knew they had a chance to ascend to the pinnacle of the Edholm rankings. Likely talked about it pregame, too. But alas, playing with their food — something the Bills began to do against Miami and New Orleans — finally cost them. Two first-quarter fumbles and a rough Josh Allen interception ended up being quite harmful, as the Patriots converted those turnovers into 10 points. The Bills took a third-quarter lead, lost it and then tied the game up late, but Allen’s three incomplete passes after cruising into New England territory on that game-tying drive really hurt. The defense couldn’t stop Stefon Diggs in his return to Highmark, and Drake Maye stung the home team late. It was a grounding loss for a team with big dreams.” — Eric Edholm
The Athletic: 4 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“Who have they beaten? Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, Saints”
“Expectations are rightfully high in Buffalo, but the defense hasn’t played like a Super Bowl unit. Still, without a truly dominant team (yet), the Bills should be just fine as they prepare for yet another prime-time game, their fourth in the first six weeks.” — Josh Kendall / Chad Graff
CBS Sports: 3 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“They haven’t played as well as expected this season, despite the 4-1 record. The offense lacks the big plays down the field.” — Pete Prisco
Sports Illustrated: 2 (unchanged from Week 5)
“I’m not sure about you, but I have a newfound amount of respect for Josh Allen, who appears to call an opponent a horrible name, but does so after he removes the helmet protecting him from any real consequences. He may have gotten himself into trouble by rumbling into needless run situations against a Patriots team that was equipped to handle it defensively, but that may just be his style. ” — Conor Orr
On SI: 2 (unchanged from Week 5)
“As goes Josh Allen, so go the Bills. The cyborg-like dual-threat quarterback has the ability to impact a game’s outcome arguably more than any other player in the NFL. The Bills scored 30-plus points each of their first four outings before falling victim to three giveaways, including a costly Allen interception in the red zone, against the Patriots on Sunday night in Week 5.” — Ralph Ventre, Buffalo Bills On SI
Pro Football Talk: 4 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“They still have more than a few flaws that can turn fatal in January.” — Mike Florio
USA Today: 2 (unchanged from Week 5)
“Perhaps they haven’t beaten anyone of note aside from a fully healthy Ravens squad on opening night. But Sunday night’s loss was uncharacteristic, insomuch as Buffalo’s three giveaways cost them the turnover battle for the first time since the 2023 regular-season finale. A two-game road swing (Atlanta, Carolina) through the NFC South should be therapeutic.” — Nate Davis
FOX Sports: 4 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“They’ve looked just OK this season, but their four wins have come against teams that are a combined 3-17. The Patriots were the best team they’ve played so far and they stopped running back James Cook cold. Could the AFC East be an actual race?” — Ralph Vacchiano
Pressbox: 4 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“As bad as it was for the Bills, it was definitely worse for this gentleman (guy who ran off with the football), who I’m guessing had a warrant out for his arrest.” — Glenn Clark
Bleacher Report: 3 (down from 2 Week 5)
“Buffalo has new competition in the AFC East. With the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets floundering, the Patriots proved they can now go toe-to-toe with the Josh Allen-led Bills.
After winning five straight division titles, Sean McDermott’s squad should not look at Sunday night’s outcome as a fluke. The Patriots found ways to slow the Bills offense and not allow Allen to beat them.
Buffalo remains the most talented team in the division, but the team is no longer undefeated. The victory means far more to the Patriots, who are trying to build something under head coach Mike Vrabel. Whereas, the Bills still have much higher aspirations.
Still, these two teams meet again in two months. Buffalo will need to send a message then.” — Brent Sobleski
Sportsnaut: 3 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“The defense remains an issue for the Buffalo Bills. After New England’s first three drives resulted in 53 total yards and a lost fumble, it followed that up with 23 points and 285 total yards on the next seven drives. Buffalo will clean up its own turnovers, and it had three costly ones on Sunday Night Football, but that Bills’ defense is the team’s biggest issue.” — Matt Johnson
The Sporting News: 3 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“The Bills had been on cruise control since the wild comeback vs. the Ravens at home. Their schedule has been favorable until they got bit by a game, gritty division rival in the New England Patriots. Now they have more work than expected to win the AFC East.” — Vinnie Iyer
Touchdown Wire: 3 (down from 2 in Week 5)
“Like Icarus flying too close to the sun, the Bills’ undefeated start and ascent to second place in these rankings last week was too much too quickly. Now, after a loss to a divisional rival in the Patriots (who may also deserve a reevaluation), the Bills have dropped a spot – when all it would have taken would have been a win to claim the top spot.” — Joe Smith
New York Post: 3 (down from 1 in Week 5)
“Three turnovers were too much to overcome in a 23-20 loss to the Patriots, who ended a four-game skid in Orchard Park, N.Y. Josh Allen, who had an interception and a lost fumble, led a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback, but the Patriots snapped a tie on Andres Borregales’ 52-yard field goal with 20 seconds remaining.” — Ryan Dunleavy
NFL Spin Zone: 1 (unchanged from Week 5)
“The loss against the New England Patriots at home was bad, but the Buffalo Bills are probably still the best team in the AFC right now, but you could convince me that another team is deserving of that title. Buffalo does have an easier schedule this year and should be able to win 13 or 14 games, perhaps locking up the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Buffalo is trying to get over the hump in the postseason, something they have not done in the Josh Allen era. Could 2025 finally be the year?” — Lou Scataglia
Also from Lou Scataglia…
Ranking 4-1 NFL teams: 3rd out of four“Buffalo took a bad loss at home against the New England Patriots, and that is huge in their quest to capture the AFC East title yet again, as New England is now 3-2 on the season, and second-year QB Drake Maye is playing out of his mind. The Bills should be fine, but the defense is nothing special, so that could end up being their primary weakness most of the season.” — Lou Scataglia
Head coach rankings: 10 – Sean McDermott
“A bad loss against the New England Patriots is not nothing. Sean McDermott and the Buffalo Bills probably just want to fast-forward to the postseason, but they have to win the AFC East first. Buffalo is a nicely-run operation, but they do have some weakneses on the defensive side of the ball that need talked about, and they really do not feel like a Super Bowl-caliber team at all.” — Lou Scataglia
Yahoo! Sports: 2 (down from 1 in Week 5)
“The Bills have played at less than their best for long stretches of four games. They came back against the Ravens and held off the Dolphins and Saints, but finally lost to the Patriots. They’re a good team. But they need to find more consistency.” — Frank Schwab
FanDuel Research: 1 (unchanged from Week 5)
(All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
— Annie Nader
“The Rich Eisen Show”: 3 (down from 2 in Week 5)
Computer Cowboy: 4 (down from 1 last week)
Discussed at the outset, the challenge for these Bills may be putting together and playing a full game before the postseason is at their doorstep.
