We’re two years plus two days removed from the Juan Soto trade. The Yankees landed one of the very best hitters in the sport, got a top 3 MVP season out of him, went to the World Series. We all knew it was borrowed time — Soto was going to play out his final year of team control and hit the open market. Michael King was the biggest piece that went west to San Diego in the deal, and he had a real good 2024, and not much of a 2025. Nobody else involved in the trade is really missed by the Yankees.
Under the parameters the club had — that is, you got one year of Soto before having to bid against all other teams in baseball, one year to make as big a splash as you can — it’s a pretty perfect trade. Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, you don’t really feel too bad about any of the guys you shipped away, and although I don’t want to talk about that World Series, you still did get there.
Two years on, and it appears there will be another chance to land the best possible rental. Buster Olney reported on Saturday that senior executives around the league anticipate the game’s best pitcher, Tigers lefty and two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, to be dealt. The Winter Meetings have started, traditionally one of the busiest times of the whole year for signings and trades.
Any trade for Skubal, like Soto, is a one year proposition. Nobody expects the southpaw to agree to an extension, the Tigers are obviously not confident he’ll stick around in Motown, and he will be 30 at the end of next season — meaning he’s looking for that one big generational contract, a la Gerrit Cole. So, 162 games plus a potential playoff run, then you’ve gotta convince him your bid is best.
The Yankees are at a pretty scary moment, where we don’t know how many more 10-win seasons Aaron Judge has in him. We don’t know how many 25+ homer campaigns are left in Giancarlo Stanton’s mighty bat, or if Gerrit Cole will come back and be a top three-ish pitcher in the AL after Tommy John surgery. There’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot of downside risk on the roster —if Judge say, merely has a six-win season, a José Ramírez season, instead of 10, how much does that hurt the org in the standings?
One of the ways to reduce uncertainty is to add players who are very good. Tarik Skubal is about as good as it gets. Unlike Juan Soto though, there’s a level of risk inherent in pitching that just doesn’t exist for right fielders who walk a lot. Cole himself is a perfect example: he was one of the last great workhorses in MLB, until his arm exploded. Sometimes, pitchers just explode.
Pair that with what Detroit wants. They’re giving up their ace, THE ace, on a pure talent level one of the very best to ever put on the Old English D. In exchange they’re going to want a Soto-level package, and while I don’t actually think you regret trading prospects that often (does anyone cry for the loss of James Kaprielian?), the risk there is opportunity cost. If you decide to send George Lombard Jr. to Detroit, you can’t send him anywhere else. If Skubal explodes, you’ve lost his value, the value of Lombard or similar prospects to the MLB roster, and the value they would have brought back in any other trade.
I’m not saying don’t go trade for Tarik Skubal. If the best pitcher in baseball is available on the market, especially with that added context of Judge’s age, I think you have to try. Still, there’s considerably more risk than the Juan Soto move, because our arms just weren’t built to do That as often as aces do.
