O said that this preview should simply state that “Indiana is very good and MSU is very bad.” I’m not sure he was fully serious but that certainly is an accurate summation.
When MSU travels to Bloomington,
IN to take on the Hoosiers, it may well be a matchup of the best team in the Big Ten (and perhaps the country) against the worst.
After their win at Oregon, Indiana is at least right there with Ohio State at the top of the conference. Those teams do not face each other in the regular season but a matchup in the B1G championship game could be in the cards.
How we got here – Indiana
Indiana comes into this game at a perfect 6-0. They did as expected in dispatching Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State in non-conference games. Not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents. However, the Hoosiers got the nation’s attention with a 63-10 victory over Illinois to open Big Ten play. Indiana followed that up with a tough 20-15 road win at Iowa before traveling to Eugene, OR to take on the Ducks.
Oregon was coming off a 30-24 double overtime win against then #3 Penn State in Happy Valley. This set up a top 10 matchup and perhaps the biggest game of the Big Ten season to date. Indiana was certainly up to the challenge and came out of Autzen Stadium with an incredibly impressive 30-20 victory.
At Oregon, Indiana took a 20-13 lead into the fourth quarter but that changed when Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw a pick six to Oregon’s Brandon Finney to tie the game at 20 with 12:48 to go.
What happened from there? On the very next drive, Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, led Indiana on a 12 play, 75 yard drive culminating with an 8 yard touchdown pass to Elijah Sarratt to reclaim the lead. Indiana added a field goal sandwiched between two interceptions of Oregon’s Dante Moore to close out the game.
When faced with adversity in a very difficult road environment, Mendoza and the Hoosiers responded by dominating the last 12 minutes of the game. Rather than going into a bunch of stats to say how good Indiana is, perhaps this tells us all we need to know.
How we got here – Michigan State
Everyone here knows what’s happened. MSU started 3-0, but this is looking more and more like a mirage. The offense disappeared in the second half in the opener against Western Michigan. An exciting week 2 double OT win against Boston College looks less impressive by the week as BC is now 1-5. MSU’s last win was against FCS Youngstown State where the Spartans struggled to contain the Penguins’ offense.
Then, Michigan State opened Big Ten play at USC and fell by two touchdowns. The defense struggled mightily in this game but the offense had some moments. Most importantly, the team showed some fight and it was a 7 point game going into the fourth quarter.
After a bye week, MSU went to Nebraska next and dug themselves a 14-0 hole. The Spartans fought back again though and took a 21-14 lead in this one, only to completely collapse in the fourth quarter. Additionally, quarterback Aidan Chiles, who had been putting together a decent season to this point, struggled mightily against Nebraska. Chiles’ scrambling ability helped MSU get back in the game but he also threw two interceptions, completed less than 50% of his passes, and finished with under 100 yards through the air. Facing immediate pressure and running for his life on almost every dropback probably didn’t help.
MSU returned home on Saturday to face UCLA for Homecoming. Needing a more complete game in all three phases and, most importantly, a win, the Spartans laid a giant egg in losing 38-13. Chiles’ struggles continued as he was again under the 50% completion mark for the game and coughed up a fumble. At this point, his status is uncertain going into the Indiana game after taking multiple hits the last two games, including a helmet-to-helmet collision against UCLA that knocked him out of that game.
A huge factor in this matchup may be that Indiana is strong where Michigan State struggles – in the trenches. The Hoosiers’ ability to build their offensive and defensive lines over the last season and a half is in stark contrast to what we are currently watching at MSU.
So here we are. A 3-3 reeling Michigan State team at 6-0 Indiana whose fans must be itching to welcome the Hoosiers home after what has to be one of their biggest wins in program history. Oh, and MSU may be without their starting quarterback and will definitely be missing key pieces on their offensive line (Stanton Ramil, Luka Vincic).
How we got here – the bigger picture
What’s interesting about this game is how similar these programs were immediately after the 2023 season and how different their trajectories appear to be now.
Both programs were at or near the bottom of the Big Ten, had fired their coaches during or immediately after that 2023 season, and were looking for new leadership.
Michigan State hired Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State while Indiana took Curt Cignetti from James Madison. Smith was known for revitalizing his alma mater, taking Oregon State from 2 wins in 2018 to 10 victories in 2022. Cignetti had been hugely successful throughout his career as a head coach at Indiana University – Pennsylvania, Elon, and James Madison but had yet to have an opportunity leading a power 4 program until Indiana gave it to him.
It’s unknown, at least to me, how many schools passed on Cignetti before Indiana gave him the reins. His age, Cignetti is 64 now, may have had something to do with it. But the Hoosiers are certainly reaping the benefits now.
Last year, Cignetti led Indiana to the college football playoff, falling at Notre Dame in the first round. The Hoosiers’ only other loss last year was at Ohio State. While Indiana may not have been quite up to the task in their biggest opportunities last year, they still earned a playoff berth in Cignetti’s very first year with the program. And, with the win at Oregon, IU seems to have taken another step forward this year and is well-positioned for a deeper playoff run.
Again, we’re all well aware of the situation at Michigan State.
Since the Spartans’ 2015 run to the college football playoff, MSU is 57-55 overall and 34-48 in the Big Ten. During the same time period, Indiana is 56-58 and 33-49.
Smith is 8-10 so far at Michigan State while Cignetti has gone 17-2 at Indiana.
Cignetti may have set an impossible bar for new coaches with what he’s done at Indiana and, as stated above, there could be several programs that didn’t recognize his talent in the 2023 hiring cycle.
Still, given the similarities of the two programs after 2023, it’s impossible not to wonder how Cignetti may have fit in at Michigan State. Smith has been criticized, among other things, for his stoic demeanor and lack of preparation for the intensity of the MSU-UM rivalry last year.
I can’t remember if it was a halftime interview or after the game but, against Michigan State, UCLA interim coach Tim Skipper said something to the effect of you can’t play this game without energy and that the first thing he did at UCLA was try to re-energize the program.
Against Oregon, when Cignetti thought the referees missed an obvious pass interference penalty on Oregon, he lost his . . . . (you can probably fill in the word) on the sideline. When asked about a lack of a targeting call that knocked Chiles out of the game at UCLA, Smith said something to the effect of: they look at that. It was just a striking difference in reaction to questionable officiating calls. Cignetti was certainly energized in his reaction.
And can you imagine how Cignetti would treat UM? I don’t know if anyone could take it to a Dantonio level but Cignetti might come pretty close.
There may be coaching jobs that match what Cignetti has done at Indiana, but I’m hard-pressed to think of one that tops this, at least over a season and a half. If Michigan State is going to have any chance in Bloomington, Smith is going to need to pull off the greatest one-week coaching job in history.
